Bucs vs. Bengals Free Pick
The Bengals look to get back on the right track after losing in Cleveland last week. They host the Bucs on Sunday and we’ve made a free pick for this Week 5 game below.
Before we get to our free pick selection, let’s take a look at the odds for this contest.
Oddsmakers from online sports book SBGGLOBAL.com have made the Bengals 6-point favorites over the Bucs in Week 5. The over/under total for this game is currently 38 points.
Let’s get to our free pick.
The Bucs rank 25th in scoring and the Bengals are 14th. Tampa is averaging just 16.7 points per game, while the Bengals are averaging 19.8. Defensively, Cincinnati is allowing 19.7 PPG, while Tampa Bay is allowing 19.5.
Based on this numbers the total is set right for this game at 38. However, there’s still a ton of value to be had with the under, which is 4-1 in the last five meetings between these two teams.
Both of these squads lack punch and up until last Sunday, the Bengals’ passing game was dreadful. They got back on track a little bit last weekend in their loss to the Browns, but as a whole Cincy doesn’t have that big play potential like most teams do in the NFL.
Tampa Bay isn’t any different and the fact that they’re coming off a bye week doesn’t help. They may be well rested and they may have had two weeks to prepare for this game, but their passing game wasn’t explosive before the bye and it won’t be coming out of it. The Bengals’ defense also played pretty well the two weeks prior to the loss to Cleveland.
My free pick for this game is the under 38. The under is 9-1 in the Bengals’ last 10 games as a home favorite and 4-1 in their last five games as a home favorite of 3.5-10 points. It’s also 5-0 in the Bucs last five road games and 5-0 in their last five games following a straight up loss.
Unless multiple turnovers occur, this one should stay under.
2010 NFL Week 5 Free Pick: BUCS/BENGALS UNDER 38