TheSpread.com

2011 NFL Week 5 Free Picks

(The Spread) – We’ve compiled our top 4 picks for Week 5 in the NFL.

We’re coming off a strong week in the NFL, posing a 3-1 record in Week 4 as the Texans, Bengals and Saints/Jaguars under all hit. Our lone loser was the Broncos +12.5 at Green Bay, which runs our season record to 8-7-1.

Chiefs @ Colts, 1:00PM ET

The Chiefs are 5-1 against the spread in their last six games as a road underdog of 0.5 to 3 points and 4-1 in their last five games as an underdog of 0.5 to 3.0 points. They’re also 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog and 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games as a road underdog. Meanwhile, the Colts are 1-4 ATS in their last five conference games and 0-7 ATS in their last seven against a team with a losing record. While Curtis Painter has kept Indy competitive the past two weeks, the Chiefs are still a slightly better overall team. And why not take the better overall team when they’re getting points?

2011 NFL WEEK 5 FREE PICK: KANSAS CITY CHIEFS +1

Saints @ Panthers, 1:00PM ET

Cam Newton has been amazing through his first four NFL games and has provided bettors that have packed the Panthers with plenty of great moments. Carolina has covered the spread in each of its last three games, which has included back-door covers against the Packers and Bears. That said, Newton and the Panthers are due to get smacked one time and who better to provide the beating than Drew Brees and the Saints? New Orleans is 7-2 against the spread in its last nine trips to Carolina while the road team is 20-8 ATS in the last 28 meetings between these two teams. Hopefully Newton won’t even have the opportunity to produce another back-door cover this week.

2011 NFL WEEK 5 FREE PICK: NEW ORLEANS SAINTS –6.5

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Titans @ Steelers, 1:00PM ET

This isn’t the same sharp Steelers team that has appeared in two Super Bowls in the past five years. The offensive line is a complete mess, Ben Roethlisberger now has another foot injury to fight through and the running game will take a hit this week if Rashard Mendenhall can’t go. That isn’t good news considering they’re playing a Titans team that has played outstanding football on the defensive side of the ball this year. If Matt Hasselbeck can continue to play well like he has over the first four weeks, then the Titans have a chance to win this game outright. There’s no reason to be intimidated by a Pittsburgh team that isn’t firing on all cylinders right now. The underdog is 7-1 against the spread in the last eight meetings between these two teams, while the Steelers are just 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.

2011 NFL WEEK 5 FREE PICK: TENNESSEE TITANS +3.5

Seahawks @ Giants, 1:00PM ET

Tarvaris Jackson and the Seahawks played well last Sunday but that was in Seattle and against an Atlanta team that inexcusably went into prevent mode early in the third quarter. The Hawks won’t be able to keep things as close this Sunday on the road against a Giants team that is playing with a ton of confidence right now. New York is 6-0 against the spread in its last six games in Week 5 and 4-1 ATS versus a team with a losing record.

2011 NFL WEEK 5 FREE PICK: NEW YORK GIANTS –9.5