|2009 NFL Betting Preview: Ravens at Patriots Trends, Injuries & Picks|
|Written by Anthony Rome|
|Sunday, 04 October 2009 02:10|
BAL-NE Free Pick
One of the marquee matchups this week in the NFL takes place in Foxoboro as the New England Patriots host the Baltimore Ravens at 1:00PM ET.
The Ravens improved to 3-0 on the year with a 34-3 win over the Browns last Sunday as 13.5-point favorites. Joe Flacco threw for 342 yards with a touchdown, while Willis McGahee rushed for 67 yards and two touchdowns on seven carries.
The Patriots also won last week, beating the Falcons 26-10 and covering the spread as 4.5-point favorites. Fred Taylor controlled the game on the ground, rushing for 105 yards and a touchdown on 21 carries, while Tom Brady threw for 277 yards and a TD.
Oddsmakers from online sports book SPORTSBETTING.com have made the Patriots 1.5-point favorites over the Ravens. The over/under total has been established at 44.5 for this matchup.
Even though they beat Atlanta last week in sound fashion, New England’s issues are far from solved. Brady didn’t play well in the first half and still looks uncomfortable on his surgically repaired knee. The Falcons allowed Brady to sit back in the pocket and have time to throw, but the Ravens won’t afford Brady the same luxury.
The Bills and Jets laid out the blue print on how to contain Brady and New England’s offense. The Falcons foolishly went against that and it cost them, but Baltimore is a smarter team. The Ravens will use multiple looks and send extra defenders to confuse Brady and force him to make mistakes.
We like Baltimore to win this game outright, because we don’t believe New England has magically found its rhythm again after winning last week. Flacco and the Raven offense have been outstanding so far this year and will find holes in New England’s defense.
Take the Ravens and the under. The total has gone under in four of Baltimore’s last five games when playing on the road against New England.
Our NFL Week 4 Free Pick for this matchup is: BALTIMORE RAVENS +1.5 and UNDER 44.5.
205 Baltimore Ravens +1.5 Over 44.5
206 New England Patriots –1.5 Under 44.5
Baltimore is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing New England
Samari Rolle, CB, P-U-P List
Tavares Gooden, LB, Questionable Week 4 (shoulder, head)
Derrick Mason, WR, Questionable Week 4 (illness)
Troy Smith, QB, Questionable Week 4 (illness)
Justin Bannan, DT, Probable Week 4 (knee)
Antwan Barnes, LB, Probable Week 4 (shoulder)
Todd Heap, TE, Probable Week 4 (back)
Jarret Johnson, LB, Probable Week 4 (shoulder)
Ray Lewis, LB, Probable Week 4 (head)
Trevor Pryce, DE, Probable Week 4 (illness)
Kelley Washington, WR, Probable Week 4 (groin)
New England Patriots
Mark LeVoir, T, P-U-P List
Jerod Mayo, LB, Doubtful Week 4 (knee)
Nick Kaczur, T, Questionable Week 4 (ankle)
Wes Welker, WR, Questionable Week 4 (knee)
Vince Wilfork, DT, Questionable Week 4 (ankle)
Leigh Bodden, CB, Probable Week 4 (thigh)
Tom Brady, QB, Probable Week 4 (right shoulder)
Laurence Maroney, RB, Probable Week 4 (thigh)
Mike Wright, DT, Probable Week 4 (shoulder)
Posted: 10/4/09 8:00AM ET