Broncos vs. Packers Free Pick
(The Spread) – The Packers look to remain unbeaten when they take on the Broncos this Sunday at 4:15PM ET.
NFL Odds: Oddsmakers have installed the host Packers as 12.5-point favorites over the visiting Broncos, while the over/under total for this game is currently sitting at 46 points. Denver comes into this game with a 1-2 record and has failed to cover in two of its first three games, while Green Bay is 3-0 overall and 2-1 against the number.
Line Movement: The Packers opened as 14-point favorites at the Las Vegas Hilton but for one reason or another, the line has dropped significantly since then. It’s now down to 12.5 in Vegas and even 12 at some offshore books. The total is sitting at 46 after opening at 47.5.
Public Betting: Of the 10,000-plus wagers on today’s game, 76% of NFL public bettors currently favor the Packers –12.5. This information is subject to change leading up to kickoff, however, so make sure you click on the link provided for the most up-to-date NFL public betting numbers.
NFL Week 4 Free Pick: Take Denver. The Packers had an exhausting, emotional win against the Saints in Week 1 and then turned around and nearly lost to the Panthers in Week 2. This time around, they just played a physical game against a NFC North opponent in Chicago and now return home to play an inferior Denver team. There’s a good chance that Aaron Rodgers and company could sleepwalk through another game this Sunday, as Denver keeps the score within 10 points. According to latest NFL trends, the Packers are 1-4 against the spread in their last five games in Week 4 and 4-12-2 ATS in their last 18 games as a home favorite of 10.5 or greater. The Broncos, meanwhile, are 6-2 against the number in their last eight games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous outing and 3-1-1 ATS in their last five games as an underdog. John Fox usually has his teams prepared to play, no matter how lacking in overall talent they may be.
2011 NFL WEEK 4 FREE PICK: DENVER BRONCOS +12.5
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