NO-BUF Free Pick
The Buffalo Bills will try to slow down the explosive New Orleans Saints’ offense this weekend when they host Drew Brees and company at 4:05PM ET on Sunday.
The Saints absolutely crushed the Eagles last week, easily covering the 2.5-point spread as favorites in a 48-22 rout. Brees passed for 311 yards, three touchdowns and an interception for New Orleans, while Marques Colston hauled in eight passes for 98 yards and two touchdowns.
The Bills earned their first victory of the season in a 33-20 win over the Buccaneers. Quarterback Trent Edwards threw for 230 yards and two touchdowns, while Fred Jackson rushed for a whopping 163 yards on 28 carries. Buffalo easily covered the 4-point spread as favorites.
Oddsmakers from online sports book Sportsbook.com have made the Saints 6-point road favorites this week over the Bills. The over/under total for this game has been established at 52.
While Buffalo has the cornerbacks capable of slowing down New Orleans’ receivers, nothing can stop Brees right now. He’s running Sean Payton’s offense like a machine, finding open receivers with the greatest of ease. His running game hasn’t been explosive, but it certainly has been effective as defenses have tried to gear up to stop the Saints’ passing attack and have given Reggie Bush and Mike Bell (out for this week) room to run.
The Bills and their no-huddle offense will provide a challenge for the Saints’ defense this week, but the key for Buffalo is being able to slow down Brees and New Orleans’ potent passing attack. If they can’t do that, it won’t matter what Edwards, Jackson and Terrell Owens do offensively for the Bills.
We like New Orleans to continue their offensive rampage this week and suggest laying the points. Brees is playing like a MVP-caliber quarterback and we don’t recommend betting against him.
The total has gone over in five of New Orleans’ last six games and in four of Buffalo’s last five games, so we also suggest taking the points, even though the total is high at 52. Brees and the Saints’ offense is just too explosive to take the under.
Our NFL Week 3 Free Pick for this matchup is: NEW ORLEANS -6 and OVER 52.
421 New Orleans Saints –6 Over 52 Moneyline: -260
422 Buffalo Bills +6 Under 52 Moneyline: +220
New Orleans is 7-1-1 ATS in its last 9 games
New Orleans is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
Buffalo is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Buffalo is 3-9 SU in its last 12 games
New Orleans Saints
Garrett Hartley, K, Out Until Week 6 (suspension)
Jammal Brown, T, Out Week 3 (hip)
Darnell Dinkins, TE, Out Week 3 (foot)
Mike Bell, RB, Missed Wednesday Practice (knee)
Kendrick Clancy, DT, Missed Wednesday Practice (knee)
Bobby McCray, DE, Missed Wednesday Practice (hamstring)
Lance Moore, WR, Missed Wednesday Practice (hamstring)
Jo-Lonn Dunbar, LB, Limited Wednesday Practice (hamstring)
Charles Grant, DE, Limited Wednesday Practice (hamstring)
Drew Brees, QB, Full Wednesday Practice (left shoulder)
Jermon Bushrod, T, Full Wednesday Practice (knee)
Roman Harper, S, Full Wednesday Practice (hamstring)
Jeremy Shockey, TE, Full Wednesday Practice (ankle)
Pierre Thomas, RB, Full Wednesday Practice (knee)
James Hardy, WR, P-U-P List
Marshawn Lynch, RB, Out Until Week 4 (suspension)
Brad Butler, T, Missed Wednesday Practice (knee)
Geoff Hangartner, C, Missed Wednesday Practice (back)
Paul Posluszny, LB, Missed Wednesday Practice (forearm)
Josh Reed, WR, Missed Wednesday Practice (ankle)
Derek Schouman, TE, Missed Wednesday Practice (knee)
Terrence McGee, CB, Limited Wednesday Practice (ankle)
Leodis McKelvin, CB, Limited Wednesday Practice (fibula)
Shawn Nelson, TE, Limited Wednesday Practice (shoulder)
Roscoe Parrish, WR, Limited Wednesday Practice (quadricep)
Posted: 9/27/09 1:10PM ET