JAC-HOU Free Pick
The Jacksonville Jaguars will once again try to earn their first victory of the 2009 season when they travel to Reliant Stadium to take on the Houston Texans on Sunday.
The Jaguars fell to 0-2 on the season after the Cardinals beat them 31-17 at home last week. The Jaguars failed to cover the 3-point spread as favorites, although quarterback David Garrard did pass for 282 yards with two touchdowns and an interception in the loss. Mike Sims-Walker also caught six passes for 106 yards and a touchdown.
The Texans earned their first win of the year in thrilling fashion when they beat the Titans 34-31 in Tennessee last week. Houston easily covered the 7-point spread as underdogs thanks to Matt Schaub’s four-touchdown day. He threw for 357 yards while receiver Andre Johnson caught 10 passes for 149 yards and two touchdowns.
Oddsmakers from online sports book Sportsbook.com have made the Texans 4-point favorites over the Jaguars in this matchup. The over/under total has been established at 47 for this game.
While the Texans didn’t look good in their Week 1 loss to the Jets, their win over the Texans spoke volumes of their potential. They still need to find a way to get running back Steve Slaton more involved in the offense, although if Schaub plays as well as he did last week the Texans are going to be fine.
The Jaguars have a good quarterback, a great running back in Maurice Jones-Drew and an improving offensive line. But the defense under Jack Del Rio just isn’t the same unit it was when Mike Smith (now head coach of the Falcons) was the team’s defensive coordinator. In fact, the secondary might be the worst in the AFC and if Schaub gets going, he could light up Jacksonville’s defensive backfield.
We happen to think that Houston’s effort in Week 1 was an aberration and their win in Week 2 wasn’t a fluke. Jacksonville, however, we believe is exactly as bad as it seems and we see a cover for the Texans this week.
Along with Houston, we also recommend taking the under since the total has gone under in four of Jacksonville’s last five games on the road and in four of Houston’s last six games at home.
Our NFL Week 3 Free Pick for this game is: HOUSTON TEXANS –4 and UNDER 47.
Jacksonville Jaguars +4 Over 47 Moneyline: +175
Houston Texans –4 Under 47 Moneyline: -210
Jacksonville is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games
Jacksonville is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games
Houston is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Jacksonville
Houston is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Jacksonville
Zach Miller, TE, Out Week 2 (knee)
Brian Witherspoon, CB, Out Week 2 (hamstring)
Quentin Groves, DE, Probable Week 2 (thigh)
Daryl Smith, LB, Probable Week 2 (hip)
Andre Davis, WR, Out Week 2 (concussion)
Antwaun Molden, CB, Out Week 2 (quadricep)
Shaun Cody, DT, Questionable Week 2 (knee)
Vonta Leach, RB, Questionable Week 2 (knee)
Jacques Reeves, CB, Questionable Week 2 (fibula)
Kevin Walter, WR, Questionable Week 2 (hamstring)
Eugene Wilson, CB, Probable Week 2 (knee)
Posted: 9/27/09 8:10AM ET