MIA-SD Free Pick
Two playoff teams from a year ago that are searching for answers will square off at Qualcomm Stadium this Sunday when the San Diego Chargers host the Miami Dolphins.
Despite limiting the Colts to only 35 offensive plays last week, the Dolphins were victims of a 27-23 defeat. Quarterback Chad Pennington couldn’t rally Miami in the final two minutes and Miami failed to cover the 3.5-point spread as underdogs. Running back Ronnie Brown rushed for 136 yards on 24 carries and two touchdowns in the loss.
The Chargers were also knocked off in Week 2, suffering a 31-26 loss at the hands of the Ravens. Philip Rivers threw for 436 yards and two touchdowns, but was intercepted twice as the Chargers failed to cover the spread as 1-point favorites.
Oddsmakers from online sports book SPORTSBETTING.com have made the Chargers 6-point home favorites over the Dolphins. The over/under total for this matchup has been set at 44.
While the Dolphins showed that they could move the ball well on the ground last Monday night against the Colts, their limitations in the passing game were once again on full display. If San Diego can limit the effectiveness of Brown, Ricky Williams and Patrick Cobbs in the running game and force Pennington to pass, then the Chargers should win this game.
That said, San Diego has too many issues to be 6-point favorites in this contest. Miami’s defense is still pretty good despite giving up 27 points at home last week (remember they were playing against an offense led by Peyton manning) and should be able to contain Rivers and the Chargers’ passing game.
We fully expect Darren Sproles to make a few big plays and we don’t think Miami will win flying cross-country on a short week. But they should keep things close and cover the spread. We recommend taking the Dolphins, although don’t be afraid to wait until late on Sunday before placing you bet, because the point spread might move with action being placed on the favorite in San Diego.
We also favor the under in this game considering that the total has gone under in five of San Diego’s last five games when playing at home against Miami.
Our NFL Week 3 Free Pick for this matchup is: MIAMI DOLPHINS +6 and UNDER 44.
423 Miami Dolphins +6 Over 44
424 San Diego Chargers –6 Under 44
Miami is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
Miami is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
San Diego is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Miami
San Diego is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Miami
Vernon Carey, T, Limited Wednesday Practice (knee)
San Diego Chargers
No Injuries to Report
Posted: 9/27/09 1:20PM ET