BAL-CLE Free Pick
The Cleveland Browns are still searching for their first win and it’ll be hard to come by this Sunday as they travel to Baltimore to take on the 2-0 Ravens.
The Browns fell to 0-2 last week with a 27-6 loss to the Broncos. Brady Quinn threw for only 161 yards and an interception, while receiver Braylon Edwards caught six passes for 92 yards. The Browns failed to cover the 3-point spread as underdogs.
The Ravens improved to 2-0 with their 31-26 victory in San Diego over the Chargers last week. The Ravens easily covered the 1-point spread as underdogs as Joe Flacco passed for 190 yards and two touchdowns. Willis McGahee also rushed for 79 yards and two touchdowns on 15 carries in the victory.
Oddsmakers from online sports book SPORTSBETTING.com have made the Ravens 13.5-point home favorites over the Browns this Sunday. The over/under total for this game has been established at 38.5.
Even though they’ve started 0-2 on the year, Cleveland is actually playing well defensively. The Browns are generating more of a pass rush under new head coach Eric Mangini and outside of giving up a couple of big plays, Cleveland has played well enough defensively to win both games.
The problems for the Browns start at the quarterback position, where Quinn has been highly ineffective in his first two games. He’s not hitting receivers in stride, he doesn’t look comfortable in the pocket and he’s slow in his decision-making process.
While the Ravens have issues in the secondary, Quinn poses no threat and Baltimore should win this game handedly. They’re averaging 34.5 points on offense and while Cleveland’s defense has been playing well, it has also been on the field way too long and has worn down late in games. That’s not a good sign for them as they face an opponent in the Ravens this Sunday that can run the ball and wear opponents down.
Along with the Ravens –13.5, we recommend taking the over. Cleveland’s offense has major issues, but the total has gone over in five of Baltimore’s last six games when playing at home against the Browns and chances are that the Ravens will score another 30-plus points on their own. Assuming Cleveland doesn’t get shut out, the over 38.5 should cover.
Our NFL Week 3 Free Pick for this game is: BALTIMORE RAVENS –13.5 and OVER 38.5.
407 Cleveland Browns +13.5 Over 38.5 Moneyline: +625
408 Baltimore Ravens –13.5 Under 38.5 Moneyline: -850
Cleveland is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Baltimore
Cleveland is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Baltimore
Baltimore is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Baltimore is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Rex Hadnot, G, Out Week 2 (knee)
David Bowens, LB, Questionable Week 2 (knee)
James Davis, RB, Questionable Week 2 (shoulder)
Mohamed Massaquoi, WR, Questionable Week 2 (shoulder)
Cedric Peerman, RB, Questionable Week 2 (thigh)
Jerome Harrison, RB, Probable Week 2 (knee)
Steve Heiden, TE, Probable Week 2 (knee)
Jamal Lewis, RB, Probable Week 2 (neck)
Shaun Rogers, DT, Probable Week 2 (foot)
Dave Zastudil, P, Probable Week 2 (right knee)
Samari Rolle, CB, P-U-P List
Tom Zbikowski, S, Doubtful Week 2 (concussion)
L.J. Smith, TE, Questionable Week 2 (hamstring)
Tavares Gooden, LB, Probable Week 2 (knee)
Jarret Johnson, LB, Probable Week 2 (shoulder)
Ed Reed, S, Probable Week 2 (concussion)
Terrell Suggs, LB, Probable Week 2 (concussion, chest)
Posted: 9/27/09 8:15AM ET