Saints vs. 49ers Free Pick
Can the San Francisco 49ers get back on the right track Monday night against the New Orleans Saints? Better yet, can they cover?
Oddsmakers from online sports book BroburySports.com have made the Saints 6-point favorites over the 49ers on Monday night. The over/under total for this game has been set at 43.5 points.
In head-to-head matchups between these two teams, the trends favor the Saints and the over. New Orleans is 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings in San Francisco and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 overall meetings with the Niners. The over is also 6-0 in the last six meetings between these two teams and 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings overall.
But as NFL bettors no, trends can be misleading. The under is 6-0-1 in the 49ers’ last seven games overall and 4-0 in the 49ers’ last four games at home. The under has also covered in four of the Saints’ last four games after they’ve accumulated less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Trends can be a valuable tool, but in the end they get you nowhere near closer to choosing the right side of a game. They may make you feel better about your pick, but there are so many trends for both side and total that everything gets muddled up.
What we do know is that neither of these two teams played well last week, even though the Saints won their opener. We also know that there’s a lot of value in taking the home team getting points – especially on Monday night. Teams usually have more focus, drive and intensity when playing at home on national television and the Niners will be motivated to play better after such a dismal effort in Seattle last week.
The 49ers had several communication problems between offensive coordinator Jimmy Raye, quarterback Alex Smith and head coach Mike Singletary against the Seahawks. Apparently those problems have been fixed and we should see a much better San Francisco team tonight. Everyone knows the firepower Sean Payton’s offense has with Drew Brees, Reggie Bush and Marques Colston, but again, we should see a much better San Fran defense tonight.
Take the Niners and the points.
2010 NFL Week 2 Monday Night Free Pick: SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS +6