Bucs-Bills Free Pick
The Buffalo Bills and Tampa Bay Buccaneers are searching for their first victory of the 2009 season and will meet at Ralph Wilson Stadium at 4:05PM ET on Sunday.
Tampa enters this game 0-1 after dropping a 34-21 decision as a 5-point underdog last Sunday at home. Byron Leftwich wasn’t the problem in the loss as he threw for 276 yards and a touchdown, while running back Cadillac Williams chipped in 97 rushing yards and a touchdown on 13 carries.
The Bills played inspired in a 25-24 loss to the Patriots in New England on Monday night. Quarterback Trent Edwards was 15-of-25 for 212 yards with two touchdowns, but a decision by Leodis McKelvin to bring a kickoff out of the end zone late in the fourth quarter led to a fumble and Buffalo’s defeat.
Oddsmakers from online sports book BetOnline has made the Bills 4.5-point favorites over the Bucs on Sunday. The over/under total has been established at 42 for this matchup.
The last time these two teams met was back in September of 2005 when the Bucs crushed the Bills 19-3. But times have changed, as Tampa no longer can count on its vaunted defense to suffocate opponents.
The Bucs are in a major transition phase and it’s going to take some time for new head coach Raheem Morris and new defensive coordinator Ron Meeks to implement their philosophies. Without Monte Kiffin setting the defense, the Bucs’ defensive unit is a major liability for this team.
Buffalo had some success running the no-huddle offense in New England on Monday and could give Tampa fits this weekend using the same scheme. The Bucs have major issues in their secondary and Edwards could have a field day in the passing game if they get rolling. It would be nice if Terrell Owens would show up for this matchup, since he practically took the opener off.
We like the Bills to cover the 4.5-point spread in this one and earn their first victory of the season. Given Tampa’s weak defense and Buffalo’s no-huddle offense, we also recommend taking the over in this matchup. The total has gone over in 9 of Tampa Bay’s last 12 games on the road.
Our NFL Free Picks for this Week 2 matchup are: BUFFALO BILLS –4.5 and UNDER 42.
225 Tampa Bay Buccaneers +4.5 Over 42 Moneyline +175
226 Buffalo Bills –4.5 Under 42 Moneyline -210
Tampa Bay is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Buffalo
Tampa Bay is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Buffalo
Buffalo is 1-4-1 SU in its last 6 games
Buffalo is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tanard Jackson, S, Out Until Week 5 (suspension)
E.J. Biggers, CB, Out Week 2 (shoulder)
Jeff Faine, C, Out Week 2 (triceps)
Antonio Bryant, WR, Doubtful Week 2 (knee)
John Gilmore, TE, Questionable Week 2 (ankle)
Kyle Moore, DE, Questionable Week 2 (groin)
Jermaine Phillips, S, Probable Week 2 (calf)
James Hardy, WR, P-U-P List
Marshawn Lynch, RB, Out Until Week 4 (suspension)
Paul Posluszny, LB, Out Week 2 (forearm)
Terrence McGee, CB, Questionable Week 2 (back)
Derek Fine, TE, Probable Week 2 (hamstring)
Drayton Florence, CB, Probable Week 2 (knee)
Chris Kelsay, DE, Probable Week 2 (knee)
Aaron Schobel, DE, Probable Week 2 (back)
Posted: 9/20/09 1:00PM ET