JAX-IND Free Pick
Indianapolis, IN - Two AFC South teams will battle on Sunday as Peyton Manning and the Indianapolis Colts will host the Jacksonville Jaguars at 1:00PM ET.
The Colts might have lost head coach Tony Dungy when he retired to retire after last season, but they essentially replaced him with his clone in Jim Caldwell, who was groomed under Dungy for years. So in essence, not much has changed for the Colts heading into a new year.
The Jaguars hope a lot will change from last year, when injuries ransacked the offensive line and the rest of the team crashed to a losing record. Jacksonville re-tooled this offseason, drafting offensive linemen Eugene Monroe and Eben Britton, as well as signing free agent tackle Tra Thomas.
Oddsmakers from online sports book Sportsbook.com have made the Colts 7-point home favorites against the Jaguars. The over/under total for this game has been established at 44.5.
Even though Indianapolis has the better overall talent, Jacksonville has had great success in this series and should not be overlooked. The Jaguars have not lost against the spread in this series in any of the past four years.
The Colts are battling injuries, mostly on the defensive side of the ball where safety Bob Sanders continues to miss time after having offseason surgery. We expect Maurice Jones-Drew to gash Indy’s run defense and as long as quarterback David Garrard doesn’t make mistakes, the Jaguars will keep this game close. Manning and Reggie Wayne will still make plays and put points on the board, but Jax should come away with a cover.
The total has gone under in four of Indy’s last six games at home and four of Jacksonville’s last six games on the road. So we advise taking the under in this matchup as well.
Our NFL Week 1 Free Picks for this matchup are: JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS +7 and UNDER44.5.
Jacksonville Jaguars +7 Over 44.5 Moneyline +245
Indianapolis Colts –7 Under 44.5 Moneyline -290
Jacksonville is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
Jacksonville is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
Indianapolis is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games at home
Indianapolis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Zach Miller, TE, Out Week 1 (knee)
Derek Landri, DT, Probable Week 1 (knee)
Tra Thomas, T, Probable Week 1 (back)
Ed Johnson, DT, Out Until Week 2 (suspension)
Bob Sanders, S, Out Week 1 (knee)
Tom Santi, TE, Out Week 1 (ankle)
Jamie Silva, CB, Out Week 1 (abdomen)
Fili Moala, DT, Questionable Week 1 (knee)
Posted: 9/13/09 8:30AM ET