MIA-ATL Free Pick
Atlanta, GA - Two teams that have playoff aspirations will square off in the Georgia Dome on Sunday as the Atlanta Falcons host the Miami Dolphins at 1:00PM ET.
Miami enters this contest after winning all four of its preseason games. In their most recent preseason win, the Dolphins defeated the Saints 10-7 as a 2.5-point underdog. The 17 combined points fell way under the posted total of 36.5 for that game.
The Falcons are coming off a bumpy preseason in which they finished 2-2, but they displayed some major weaknesses in all four of their games (namely the secondary). Atlanta was beaten 20-3 by the Ravens last Thursday night, while the total of 35.5 fell under.
Oddsmakers from online sports book BetOnline have made the Falcons 4-point home favorites over the Dolphins. The over/under total for this game has been established at 43.5.
We’re not going to beat around the bush: We love the over 43.5 in this game. Thanks to an offense comprised of Matt Ryan, Michael Turner, Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez, the Falcons are one of those rare teams that can light up a scoreboard every time they take the field. (Even when they go up against a good defense like Miami.)
Unfortunately for them, they may have to outscore their defense because the secondary looks atrocious heading into the year. The Dolphins don’t have the most explosive offense in the league, but they don’t beat themselves and Chad Pennington can be very methodical when leading a team down the field. Expect Miami to pick up plenty of yardage while keeping the chains moving and converting in the red zone against an inexperienced Atlanta defense.
This should be a tight game and we like that oddsmakers are giving us 4 points with Miami because this is a field goal game either way. We like the Dolphins +4, although our stronger play is the over 43.5.
Our NFL Week 1 Free Picks for this matchup are: MIAMI DOLPHINS +4 and OVER 43.5.
Miami Dolphins +4 Over 43.5 Moneyline +175
Atlanta Falcons –4 Under 43.5 Moneyline -210
Miami is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 6 games when playing Atlanta
Atlanta is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Atlanta is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
Vontae Davis, CB, Probable (Knee)
William Moore, S, Out (Hamstring)
John Abraham, DE, Probable (Knee)
Chauncey Davis, DE, Probable (Foot)
Tony Gilbert, LB, Probable (Hamstring)
Todd McClure, C, Probable (Knee)
Jerious Norwood, RB, Probable (Knee)
Mike Schneck, LS, Probable (Knee)
Posted: 9/13/09 7:00AM ET