Dolphins vs. Bills Free Pick
The Miami Dolphins could be one of the sleepers in the AFC this season, but they can’t fall asleep against a weaker opponent in Week 1. Let’s take a look at their matchup with the Buffalo Bills this Sunday.
Oddsmakers from online sports book Sportsbook.com have made the Dolphins 3-point favorites over the Bills in Week 1, while the over/under total is currently sitting at 38.5 points.
Dolphins Win If:
If they shut down rookie C.J. Spiller. The Bills don’t have many offensive weapons, but the rookie Spiller is certainly one of the them. Quarterback Trent Edwards has not played with much confidence over the last two seasons, so if Miami’s front seven can take away Spiller, then the Bills could fold. Expect Karlos Dansby to be all over the field spying Spiller this week, which is a matchup that Miami should win. Dansby is the most versatile linebacker in the league and as long as he doesn’t take the year off after getting a new contract in the offseason, he should have another great season. The Dolphins are going to be much better defensively this season under new coordinator Mike Nolan and should prove that statement correct this Sunday.
Bills Win If:
Spiller takes over the game and opens things up for Edwards. As previously noted, Edwards has been a disaster the last two seasons. He often looks to check down instead of throwing the ball vertically in the passing game and he’s going to get Spiller killed if he doesn’t take more chances. The offensive line is highly inexperienced, so Buffalo will need that unit to step up its game too if they’re going to beat the Dolphins. Defensively, stopping the Wildcat is first and foremost when playing Miami, but the defensive backfield also needs to keep tabs on Brandon Marshall, who will no doubt be a focal point in the Fish’ game plan this week.
Prediction:
The Bills don’t have enough on offense to matchup with the Dolphins and I think bettors can take advantage of a low point spread in Week 1. Miami is the better team on both sides of the ball and as long as they don’t let Spiller take over the game, then they should cover the spread rather easily. It’s also important that they don’t play down to their competition. In terms of the total, both teams will try to establish the run early and often, which means the clock should be ticking at all times. I lean towards the under.
2010 NFL Week 1 Free Pick: MIAMI DOLPHINS –3 & UNDER 38.5