Falcons vs. Steelers Free Pick
Without Ben Roethlisberger, the Pittsburgh Steelers will have to rely on their running game and defense to beat an Atlanta Falcons team that is expected to contend for a playoff spot this year. Let’s take a look at the matchup.
Oddsmakers from online sports book BroburySports.com have made the Falcons a 1-point favorite over the Steelers in Week 1, while the over/under total for this game is 37.5 points.
Falcons Win If:
They can move the ball through the air. The Steelers’ front seven is one of the best in football, but their secondary is soft on a whole. Troy Polamalu is outstanding and Matt Ryan is going to have to stay away from him on most occasions. But the Falcons can beat the rest of the backfield with their array of weapons. Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez are mismatches for most defenders in coverage and Harry Douglas gives Atlanta a true playmaker out of the slot. But if Ryan can’t get the ball down field, then don’t expect Michael Turner to take over this game on the ground. Ryan will be the key to victory this weekend in Pittsburgh.
Steelers Win If:
Dennis Dixon can make enough plays in the passing game. This isn’t the best matchup for Dixon because of the speed on the Falcons’ defense, but if Rashard Mendenhall can break a few runs then the passing game should open up. Atlanta’s weakness is its secondary, so if Dixon can find Heath Miller down the steam or Mike Wallace on the outside, then the Steelers can rely on their defense to produce a win. Either way, Dixon is going to have to make plays at some point because the Falcons’ defense is improved from last year.
Prediction:
My top play is the under. This is a bad matchup for both offenses and I suspect both teams will play things conservatively. The Falcons are in unfamiliar territory playing on the road and the Steelers are starting an inexperienced quarterback. Neither of these teams is going to open it up and I imagine while see a steady diet of Mendenhall and Turner. Expect field goals instead of touchdowns, which is why I love the under. As far as the side, I like the Falcons due to Dixon’s inexperience, but it’s going to be close either way.
2010 NFL Week 1 Free Pick: ATLANTA FALCONS –1 & UNDER 37.5