Saints-Colts Free Pick
After 18 grueling games, the Indianapolis Colts and New Orleans Saints have reached the climax of the 2009-2010 NFL season: Super Bowl XLIV.
The Saints beat the Vikings 31-28 in overtime as a 4-point favorite in the NFC Championship Game. The combined score went over the posted total of 54 points, as quarterback Drew Brees threw for 197 yards with three touchdowns for New Orleans. Running back Pierre Thomas chipped in 61 rushing yards on 14 carries in the win.
The Colts defeated the Jets 30-17 as a 7.5-point favorite in the AFC Championship Game, as the combined score flew over the posted total of 40 points. Quarterback Peyton Manning threw for 377 yards with three touchdowns for the Colts in the win, while Pierre Garcon caught 11 passes for 161 yards and a touchdown.
Oddsmakers from online sports book BroburySports.com have made the Colts a 4.5-point favorite over the Saints in Super Bowl XLIV. The over/under total has been set at 56.5 points, which is high for any professional NFL game, nevertheless a Super Bowl.
The general consensus of some bettors is that since most teams appearing in their first Super Bowl lose (less than 30% to be more specific), that the Colts should win soundly. It’s decent logic, especially considering that Manning and Indianapolis won in Miami in the Super Bowl just four years ago.
But the Saints aren’t just another team appearing in their first Super Bowl – they’re a juggernaut. They averaged 31.9 points per game, including 272.2 passing yards and 131.6 rushing yards. They did allow 21.3 points per game defensively, although it should be noted that because of the offense’s ability to score quickly, they were on the field a lot.
Some key trends to consider: The Saints are 4-2 against the spread in their last six games when playing the Colts and are 5-2 straight up against Indy in their last seven meetings. They’re also completely healthy and are led by a head coach in Sean Payton who is one of the best offensive game-planners in the league.
The Saints need to take advantage of the mismatch that tight end Jeremy Shockey will create with the Colts’ safeties and also spread out a fast, but undersized Indianapolis defense.
Another factor to consider is that defensive end Dwight Freeney might not play due to an ankle injury. If he doesn’t play or is limited, then the Saints don’t have to worry about keeping an extra blocker in to help protect Brees, and can use their full complement of offensive weapons.
Our free pick prediction for the 2010 Super Bowl is the Saints +4.5. And while we advise taking the points, we actually think New Orleans wins this game out right. They’re a team of destiny and have all the tools to succeed.
We also like a small play on the under 56.5 for this game. We think both defenses will be more of a factor than people will realize.
Our Super Bowl XLIV Free Pick for this matchup is: New Orleans Saints +4.5 and UNDER 56.5.
101 New Orleans Saints +4.5 (+165 moneyline) Over 56.5
102 Indianapolis Colts –4.5 (-185 moneyline) Under 56.5
Super Bowl XLIV Betting Trends
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANAPOLIS is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANAPOLIS is 1-0 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 1-0 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
Super Bowl XLIV Playoff Injuries
NEW ORLEANS
[OL] 09/29/2009 – Jammal Brown IR ( Hip )
[TE] 09/05/2009 – Billy Miller IR ( Achilles )
[CB] 08/16/2009 – Reggie Jones IR ( Undisclosed )
[LB] 08/16/2009 – Mark Simoneau IR ( Tricep )
[FS] 09/05/2009 – Chip Vaughn IR ( Knee )
[FB] 09/05/2009 – Olaniyi Sobomehin IR ( Undisclosed )
[FB] 10/29/2009 – Heath Evans IR ( Leg )
[WR] 10/16/2009 – Rod Harper IR ( Knee )
[DT] 11/08/2009 – Kendrick Clancy IR ( Knee )
[CB] 11/28/2009 – Leigh Torrence IR ( Shoulder )
[LB] 12/09/2009 – Jo-Lonn Dunbar IR ( Hamstring )
[FB] 12/22/2009 – Marcus Mailei IR ( Hamstring )
[DE] 01/05/2010 – Charles Grant IR ( Tricep )
[DT] 01/24/2010 – Rodney Leisle IR ( Knee )
[CB] 01/26/2010 – Malcolm Jenkins missed last game, "?" Sunday vs. Indianapolis ( Hamstring )
[DB] 01/24/2010 – Courtney Roby injured last game, "?" Sunday vs Indianapolis ( Ankle )
[TE] 01/26/2010 – Jeremy Shockey "?" Sunday vs. Indianapolis ( Knee )
[TB] 01/26/2010 – Lynell Hamilton injured last game, "?" Sunday vs. Indianapolis ( Ankle )
INDIANAPOLIS
[WR] 12/24/2009 – Anthony Gonzalez IR ( Knee )
[CB] 11/05/2009 – Marlin Jackson IR ( Knee )
[LB] 11/04/2009 – Tyjuan Hagler IR ( Bicep )
[SS] 11/08/2009 – Bob Sanders IR ( Elbow )
[OT] 11/22/2009 – Dan Federkeil IR ( Concussion )
[QB] 12/09/2009 – Jim Sorgi IR ( Shoulder )
[PK] 01/24/2010 – Adam Vinatieri "?" Sunday vs New Orleans ( Hip )
[CB] 01/26/2010 – Jerraud Powers missed last game, "?" Sunday vs. New Orleans ( Foot )
[DE] 01/26/2010 – Dwight Freeney injured last game, "?" Sunday vs. New Orleans ( Ankle )
Posted: 2/7/10 3:00PM ET