TheSpread.com

Super Bowl Line Movement Report

INDIANAPOLIS, IN (The Spread) – How much has the line for the 2012 Super Bowl moved? Read on for a full report.

Depending on what sports book you viewed, the Patriots opened as either a 3.5 or 3-point favorite on Sunday night of the AFC and NFC championship games. That line quickly dropped, however, as most of the early money came in on the Giants.

On Monday, some sports books had moved the spread from 3 to 2.5 as the money coming in was roughly 60/40 on the Giants. But despite the love for New York, some books have kept their line at 3 and seem comfortable holding it there throughout the week. Things could change, however, and there’s one big injury situation that could dramatically change the odds.

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You would be hard-pressed to find a time when a tight end was having such an effect on the line of the Super Bowl. But when you consider how productive New England’s Rob Gronkowski was this season, you understand why some books are constantly checking the status of the tight end’s left ankle.

Gronkowski injured his ankle during the Patriots’ victory over the Ravens in the AFC championship game. Despite several reports that insist he needs surgery following the Super Bowl, the “Gronk” says that he intends to play. He shed his walking boot earlier this week, which was a strong indication that the Patriots will have their most productive weapon in the passing game when they take on the Giants this weekend.

That said, if by Friday the Patriots say that Gronkowski (90 receptions, 1,327 receiving yards, 17 TDs) won’t play, you could see the line drop below 3 points at every sports book. Again, it’s hard to remember a time when a tight end had so much impact on a Super Bowl line.

As for the total, the over/under opened at 55.5 and has managed to drop down to 54.5 at most sports books. Most novice bettors don’t want to watch the Super Bowl while rooting against scoring, so it’s doubtful that the total drops anymore. It’s also important to keep in mind that the game will be played inside and both the Patriots and the Giants have explosive offenses.

2012 Super Bowl Opening Line:

101 New York Giants +3.5 (55.5)

102 New England Patriots –3.5

2012 Super Bowl Mid-Week Line:

101 New York Giants +3 (54.5)

102 New England Patriots –3

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