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Armed Forces Pick

Two very different but very effective offenses meet Thursday in the 2009 Armed Forces Bowl as Air Force collides with Houston at Noon ET from Amon Carter Stadium.

Bet The Armed Forces Bowl
Air Force is 7-5 on the season and 6-4-1 against the spread. The Falcons won and covered in three straight before losing and failing to cover against BYU in the season finale.

Houston is 10-3 this season and 8-4 against the spread. The Cougars lost to East Carolina 38-32 in the Conference USA Championship game. The Cougars have scored no less than 29 points in each game this year.
Oddsmakers from online sports book SPORTSBETTING.com have made Houston 5-point favorites over Air Force on Thursday afternoon. The over/under total for this game has been established at 63.

Air Force has one of the top rushing attacks in the country, totaling 3,283 yards on the ground this year. The rushing game is a combined effort as the Falcons have seven different players with at least 40 carries this season. With that, Air Force has just 988 passing yards on the season. The Falcons average 28.3 points per-game on offense. Houston is giving up 28.8 points per-game on defense and has been torched for 2,770 yards rushing on the season.

Houston has the top offense in the nation, scoring 43.9 points per-game while racking up 581.2 yards per-outing. Quarterback Case Keenum has thrown for a nation’s-best 5,449 yards and 43 touchdowns this year. On defense, Air Force is holding opponents to just 15.3 points and 284 yards per-game.

This game should have plenty of offense as Air Force will be able to run all over Houston, and Keenum has proven he can throw on any defense. The key to this game will be if the Falcons can control the clock offensively and keep Keenum off the field long enough to make a run. Air Force seems to have a toughness that is lacking in Houston and trends show that Air Force has been better at covering the spread in recent history. We suggest a pick of Air Force with the over in this bowl game.

Our Armed Forces Bowl Free Pick for this matchup is: AIR FORCE +5 and OVER 63.
College Football Bowl Season Betting Trends
Top Trends for this game.

AIR FORCE is 53-76 ATS (-30.6 Units) after playing a conference game since 1992.

AIR FORCE is 16-40 ATS (-28.0 Units) off a loss against a conference rival since 1992.

AIR FORCE is 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History

HOUSTON is 1-1 against the spread versus AIR FORCE over the last 3 seasons

HOUSTON is 1-1 straight up against AIR FORCE over the last 3 seasons

1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

Air Force is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games

Air Force is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games

Houston is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games

Houston is 11-3 SU in its last 14 games

Bowl Season College Football Injury Report
AIR FORCE

[CB] 09/18/2009 - PJ Adeji-Paul out indefinitely ( Leg ) 

[QB] 12/28/2009 - Connor Dietz is upgraded to probable Thursday vs. Houston U ( Hand ) 

[LB] 11/07/2009 - Ken Lamendola out indefinitely ( Knee ) 

[LB] 10/16/2009 - Patrick Hennessey out for season ( Shoulder ) 

[WR] 12/28/2009 - Kyle Halderman is upgraded to probable Thursday vs. Houston U ( Knee ) 

HOUSTON

No significant injuries.
Armed Forces Bowl Odds
Air Force Falcons +5 Over 63 (+180)

Houston Cougars -5 Under 63 (-220)
Bet The Armed Forces Bowl
Posted: 12/31/09 7:00AM ET