2012 Hawaii Bowl Prediction
Fresno State (9-3 SU, 11-1 ATS, 5-6 O/U) has won five straight and is looking to end the season on a good note after a mediocre start. They defeated Air Force, 48-15, giving 16.5 on Nov. 24. SMU (6-6 SU, 7-5 ATS, 6-5 O/U) did win their finale on Nov. 24 over Tulsa, 35-27, getting 5.5. That win made them bowl-eligible.
LINE MOVEMENT: Fresno State opened as a 12.5-point favorite but the line has been bet down to 11.5 at most sports books. The total started at 60.5 and has moved down slightly to 60.
PUBLIC BETTING: Of the current wagers placed on tonight’s game, 68% of College Football public bettors currently favor Fresno State. This information is subject to change, however, so make sure you click on the link provided to get the most updated public betting numbers.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL BOWL PICK: Take SMU. According to latest college football trends, Fresno State is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 bowl games. Southern Methodist is: 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. MWC and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games on fieldturf.
The SMU Mustangs (6-6) are making a school-record fourth consecutive bowl appearance after opening the season 2-4. SMU became bowl eligible Nov. 24 in its last game, a 35-27 victory over Conference USA West champion Tulsa. The Mustangs will make their third postseason appearance in Honolulu and first since beating Nevada 45-10 in the 2009 Hawaii Bowl, their first bowl game in 25 years. SMU is led by quarterback Garrett Gilbert, a Texas transfer, who threw for 2,720 yards and 14 TDs, but he hasn't been picked off in the last five games. Gilbert is also a big running threat, as he's reached the end zone seven times and ran for a career-high 111 yards in the regular-season finale. Senior tailback Zach Line had three rushing TDs in that game to move within one of Eric Dickerson's SMU career record of 47. Line is the fourth player in Conference USA history with three straight 1,000-yard seasons after rushing for 1,207 this year. Line should have a big game against a poor run defense as Fresno is ranked 75th against the run (172ypg). Fresno has lost three straight bowl games. They might finally break out here, but won't cover the 12.5 as Line and Gilbert will have big games to make this is a close one.
2012 HAWAII BOWL: SMU MUSTANGS +11.5