|2012 New Mexico Bowl Nevada vs. Arizona Picks & Predictions|
|Written by ATSSportsline.com|
|Saturday, 15 December 2012 09:00|
Nevada vs. Arizona Bowl Prediction
ALBUQUERQUE, NEW MEXICO (ATS Consultants) - Arizona (7-5 SU, 6-6 ATS, 6-5 O/U) looks to end the season on a good note when they take on Nevada (7-5 SU, 3-9 ATS, 8-3 O/U) at the New Mexico Bowl on Saturday, Dec. 15 at University Stadium in Albuquerque at 1pmET.
Arizona ended their season falling to rival Arizona State at home, giving 2.5, while Nevada lost to Boise State, 27-21, getting 7.5 at home in their finale. Both offenses are led by outstanding running backs. Arizona sophomore Ka'Deem Carey is the nation's leading rusher at 146.4 yards per game, while Nevada's Stefphon Jefferson is second at 141.9ypg.
LINE MOVEMENT: Arizona opened as a 9.5-point favorite and remained there at most books. The total started at 76 and moved to 76.5 in most books.
PUBLIC BETTING: Of the current wagers placed on tonight’s game, 64% of College Football public bettors currently favor the Arizona. This information is subject to change, however, so make sure you click on the link provided to get the most updated public betting numbers.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL BOWL PICK: Take Arizona. According to latest college football trends, Nevada is 0-7 ATS L7 with a total of 63+ points, 2-8-1 ATS last 11 non-conference games and are 0-4-1 ATS last 5 bowl games. Arizona is: 11-2 ATS last 13 off a home game scoring and allowing 31+ points. The similarities between Arizona and Nevada are striking.
This is shaping up to be a high-scoring New Mexico Bowl as both teams have high-powered offenses. Arizona (7-5) got as high as No. 22 in the poll after opening 3-0, which included a 59-38 victory over then-No. 18 Oklahoma State on Sept. 8. Nevada got off to a 6-1 start to become bowl eligible but also finished 7-5. The Wolf Pack are allowing an average of 32.5 points and are 13th-worst in the FBS against the run, giving up 213.2 yards per game. One of their biggest weaknesses is on third down, as they let opponents convert 47.2 percent of the time for the nation's 12th-worst mark. Arizona has their own issues defensively but they've played a tougher schedule in the Pac-12. The Wildcats are seventh in total offense at 521.8 yards per game and average 37.3 points, while the Wolf Pack check in just behind them in both categories, averaging 502.8 yards and 37.0 points. Arizona's Ka'Deem Carey should have a monster game against a terrible run defense. In directing the spread offense, QB Matt Scott ranked third in the Pac-12 with 3,238 passing yards and had 24 touchdowns to 12 interceptions. Eight of those picks came in three losses, though, and the Wildcats are 6-2 when he has one interception or fewer. Expect a shootout early and then Arizona settles down and gets enough stops to win this big.
2012 NEW MEXICO BOWL PREDICITON: ARIZONA WILDCATS –9.5