|Men's Basketball Championship Michigan vs. Louisville Picks & Predictions|
|Written by ATSSportsline.com|
|Monday, 08 April 2013 16:00|
Michigan vs. Louisville Free Pick
The college basketball season ends tonight with the two best teams facing off. Louisville (31-9 SU, 20-16 ATS, 19-14 O/U) was the favorite coming into the tournament. They had a hard-fought win over #9 Wichita State on Saturday, 72-68 giving 9.5. #4 Michigan (31-7 SU, 19-16-1 ATS, 21-15 OU) has held their own throughout March Madness and will be a formidable challenge. They held on to defeat Syracuse, 61-56 on Saturday, giving 1.5. Michigan takes on Louisville at 9:23pmET from Atlanta in the NCAA Championship game from the Georgia Dome in Atlanta.
ODDS: Oddsmakers from online sports book Bovada.lv, Louisville is 4-point favorites over Michigan, while the over/under total is currently sitting at 138 points. The Wolverines are 31-7 overall while the Cardinals enter play with a 34-5 overall record.
LINE MOVEMENT: Louisville opened as a 4-point favorite and that's where the line currently sits at most online and Vegas sports books. The total, meanwhile, opened at 136.5 and is now either sitting at 138 or 138.5 depending on the book.
PUBLIC BETTING: Of the wagers placed on tonight’s game, 58% of college basketball public bettors currently favor the Wolverines. This information is subject to change, however, so make sure you click on the link provided for the most up-to-date public betting numbers.
MARCH MADNESS FREE PICK: Take Michigan. According to latest college basketball trends, Michigan 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. win, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 NCAA Tournament games, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. Big East, 16-5 ATS in their last 21 neutral site games and 27-11-1 ATS in their last 39 non-conference games. Louisville is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 vs. Big Ten.
It doesn't get any better than this. Louisville showed some flaws against Wichita State on Saturday. Their experience and size wore them down, but they did not rebound well, allowing 13 offensive rebounds to the Shockers. They needed a huge performance from back up small forward Luke Hancock (20 points) to get the job done. Michigan's advantage is that they don't turn the ball over (just over 9 per game) and they face one of the best pressure defenses in the nation. They took on another very tough defense in VCU and blew them out, 78-53 on March 23. Michigan averages 74.5 points per game, while shooting 48 percent from the field and 38 percent from beyond the arc. If Louisville goes to a zone, Nik Stauskas will drill it from the outside. If the Cards play man-to-man, Trey Burke can get into the lane and score or dish it to their perimeter shooters. Defensively, Michigan is underrated as they allow just 62.8 points per game, and teams to shoot just 42.4 percent from the field and 33.2 percent from beyond the arc. They don't pressure as much as Louisville but their athleticism on the wing and their size up front with Mitch McGary (6-10, 250) will be the difference. Even if McGary gets in foul trouble, Michigan can go to , more time over Blackshear, who played just nine minutes without scoring a point against Wichita State sophomore Jon Horford (6-10, 250) and junior Jordan Morgan (6-8, 250). This will be a close game but Michigan will pull away at the end and not only cover, but win the game outright to give the Wolverines their first title since 1989.
2013 MARCH MADESS ELITE EIGHT FREE PICK: MICHIGAN WOLVERINES +4