Villanova vs. UNC Free Pick

villanova north carolina march madness predictions odds trends free picks

KANSAS CITY, MO (ATS Consultants) – Two teams that made late-season surges will battle tonight at the Sprint Center in Kansas City when Villanova takes on North Carolina in the second round of the 2013 March Madness Tournament.

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ODDS: Oddsmakers from online sports book Bovada.lv have installed North Carolina as a 4-point favorite over Villanova for tonight’s game, while the over/under total is currently sitting at 143 points. The Wildcats enter play with a 20-13 overall record while the Tar Heels are 24-10 on the year.

LINE MOVEMENT: North Carolina opened as a 4-point favorite and that's where the line currently sits at most sports books, although some places list the Heels as a 4.5-point favorite. As for the total, it opened at 141 and has jumped to 142.5 or 143, depending on what book you view.

PUBLIC BETTING: Of the wagers placed on tonight’s game, 69% of college basketball public bettors currently favor the Tar Heels. This information is subject to change, however, so make sure you click on the link provided for the most up-to-date public betting numbers.

MARCH MADNESS FREE PICK: Take North Carolina. According to latest college basketball trends, Villanova is 5-12 ATS last 17 neutral site games, 1-10 ATS last 11 Friday games and 0-4 ATS last 4 NCAA Tournament games. North Carolina is 7-1 ATS last 8 Friday games, 8-3 ATS last 11 overall and 13-6 ATS last 19 NCAA Tournament games.

Villanova (20-13 SU, 19-10-1 ATS) comes into the NCAA Tournament as a ninth seed in the South region. They take on a North Carolina (24-10 SU, 20-12 ATS) team that is seeded eighth.North Carolina finished the season on a strong note, winning eight of 10. They fell in the ACC tournament final to Miami-Florida, 87-77 getting 1. The Tar Heels are a young basketball team that has played better since going to a smaller lineup. They basically play four guards and can have issues against team that rebound. Miami-Florida is one of those teams that gave North Carolina trouble. Villanova fell to Louisville in the Big East tournament on March 14, 74-55, getting 9.5. They had won five of their last seven prior to that loss. Villanova defeated four ranked teams this season, which is why they are in the Big Dance. This looks like an even matchup based on the fact that both are in the 8-9 seeds. But is North Carolina really a number eight seed? As a whole, they deserve a better seeding after the last month or so, they were a top-20 team. Villanova weakness is that turn it over 16 times per game and North Carolina forces 9.2 steals and 16.2 turnovers per game. UNC also turns it over just 10.4 times per game thanks to solid guard play from freshman Marcus Paige and Dexter Strickland. Wing P.J. Hairston (6-5, 220) is difficult to defend because he hits 39 percent of his three-pointers. UNC will use their quickness and pressure to make this a track meet. The uptempo games favors North Carolina who should win and cover with ease.  North Carolina takes on Villanova from the Sprint Center in Kansas City, Mo. at 7:20pmET in the second round.

2013 MARCH MADNESS FREE PICK: NORTH CAROLINA TAR HEELS -4

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