Spurs vs. Heat Game 7 Pick
ODDS: Oddsmakers from online sports book Bovada.lv have installed the Heat as 5.5-point favorites over the Spurs, while the total is currently sitting at 188 points. Miami beat San Antonio 103-100 in Game 6 but the Spurs covered as a 6.5-point favorite.
LINE MOVEMENT: The Heat opened as 6-point favorites but the spread has dropped down to 5.5 at most online and Las Vegas sports books, although the line is still 6 at some books. The total, meanwhile, is currently sitting at 188 points after opening at 190.5.
PUBLIC BETTING: Of the current wagers placed on tonight’s game, 72% of NBA public bettors currently favor the Spurs. This information is subject to change, however, so make sure you click on the link provided to get the most updated public betting numbers.
NBA FREE PICK: Take San Antonio. According to latest NBA trends, the Heat is 0-8 against the spread in their last eight games following a straight up win and 0-5 ATS in their last five games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. The Spurs are also 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games overall and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 NBA championship games.
Miami is a big favorite but they didn't act like one in their last two games. They came back in Game 6 thanks to an offensive rebound and a miracle three-point shot from Ray Allen from the corner with 5.2 seconds left. San Antonio completely controlled Game 6 but Manu Ginobili and Kawhi Leonard missed two foul shots down the stretch. LeBron James and Allen both hit three-pointers coming off offensive rebounds. Most teams wouldn't survive such a difficult loss but the Spurs are a veteran team that will get over it. Despite the loss, the Spurs did a great job on LeBron James, holding him to 11-of-26 from the field. He also played 50 minutes and gave everything he had to extend the series, especially in the fourth quarter. James has played about 120 games since September when you factor in the Olympics, preseason, regular season and postseason. He might be saving himself again for the fourth quarter. But it might be too late. Tim Duncan is coming off a strong performance as he had 30 points and 17 rebounds in one of his best postseason performances in a long time. But Duncan was rested down the stretch several times for matchup reasons. He won't sit a lot tonight and Gregg Popovich won't make the same mistake again, by sitting Tony Parker and Duncan at the same time to start the fourth quarter. The last Game 7 in the NBA Finals took place in 2010, with the Lakers defeating the Celtics. But throw the stats away for Game 7. The Spurs take the crown.
2013 NBA FINALS GAME 7 PICK: SAN ANTONIO SPURS +5.5