Heat vs. Spurs Game 4 Pick
LINE MOVEMENT: The Spurs opened as a 2-point favorite but the spread has completely flipped and now the Heat are 1-point favorites. The over/under total, meanwhile, opened at 188.5 points and is now down to 186.
PUBLIC BETTING: Of the current wagers placed on tonight’s game, 67% of NBA public bettors currently favor the Heat. This information is subject to change, however, so make sure you click on the link provided to get the most updated public betting numbers.
NBA FREE PICK: Take Miami. According to latest NBA trends, Miami is 4-0 ATS last 4 following an ATS loss, 20-7 ATS last 27 road games and 18-6 ATS last 24 following a SU loss. San Antonio is 5-12 ATS last 17 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game and 4-10 ATS last 14 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
Miami was simply embarrassed in Game 3. They turned the ball over 16 times and shot just 40 percent from the field. But it was their defense that was invisible as they allowed the Spurs to shoot 49 percent from the field and 16-of-32 (50 percent) from beyond the arc. The Spurs set a Finals record for most three-pointers as Danny Green and Gary Neal had open looks all night. That won't happen in Game 4 as the Heat have not lost two straight since early January when they fell at Portland and Indiana. LeBron James is shooting just 38.9 percent from the field and has to find a way to get more points in the paint instead of shooting jumpers. But the biggest issue in this game and possibly the series is Tony Parker's hamstring strain. The point guard played 27 minutes in Game 3 and score just six points with eight assists before getting injured. He actually came back and tried to play before the game got out of hand. Parker could play but he's probably not going to be 100 percent and the Heat will pressure him, Gary Neal, Manu Ginobili and whoever handles the ball for the Spurs.
2013 NBA FINALS FREE PICK: MIAMI HEAT -1