Jimmie Johnson has the Championship more or less locked up since all he really has to do is start the race and avoid a major incident. The problem is he couldn’t do that at Texas and wound up with a DNF. But even then, only two drivers are still in contention and they need a miracle to win the Championship if he falters.
Johnson has said many times this week he is going to race hard but we think different. His record here is not the best and we think this race offers some real value since Johnson is once again favored (even when he shouldn't be).
Jeff Gordon 8/1
We were a bit surprised to see such a generous price on Gordon this week since he has to win to have any chance of winning the Championship. With so much on the line, we think he will let it all hang out on Sunday. Gordon has a very good record here since this track was reconfigured a few years ago. He has three top fives and four top tens in his last five starts at Homestead-Miami Speedway. Since this is a must win for Gordon, we think that oddsmakers might have made a mistake on who should be the favorite this week.
When it comes to average finish among the drivers at Homestead-Miami Speedway, you will see Carl Edwards (15/1) has one win and an average finish of 6.4, Greg Biffle (15/1) has three wins and an average finish of 6.8, while Kevin Harvick (25/1) has an average finish of 8.8.
All three of these drivers have a very good chance of winning when you look at their history here, but they all have one thing in common: Not one of them have won a race this year. Going on past history, all of these drivers are big overlays this week and with nothing to lose, one of them might find victory lane this week.
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