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Wednesday MLB Free Pick

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PHILADELPHIA, PA (ATS Consultants) - This is the third game of a four-game series. The teams split the first two. Bronson Arroyo takes the mound for the Reds against Vance Worley for the Phillies. The opening pitch starts at 7:05pmET from Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia.

ODDS: The oddsmakers have installed the Phillies as a -110 favorite over the Reds. The total is 8.5 in most books. The Reds come in with a 75-49 overall record and are 52-64 Under, while the Phillies are 57-66 overall and are 69-51 Over.

LINE MOVEMENT: The Phillies opened as a -115 favorite. The total started at 9 and moved down to 8.5 at most books.

View Latest 2012 World Series Odds

PUBLIC BETTING: Of the wagers currently placed on tonight’s game, 61% of public bettors favor the Reds. These numbers are subject to change, however, so make sure you click on the “Public Betting” link available in this paragraph to get the most up-to-date information.

MLB FREE PICK: Take Cincinnati over Philadelphia. According to the latest MLB trends, Reds are 7-1 in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a losing home record, 10-2 in their last 12 vs. National League East, 15-4 in their last 19 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game, 22-8 in their last 30 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game,  37-18 in their last 55 games following a win and is 5-1 in Arroyo's last 6 starts vs. National League East. Phillies are 7-15 in their last 22 during game 3 of a series, 3-11 in their last 14 home games vs. a team with a winning road record,  4-10 in Worleys last 14 starts vs. a team with a winning record and are 2-7 in Worley's last 9 starts after allowing 5 runs or more. Worley has struggled this year for the Phils, giving up 4 runs against Milwaukee, in 4 2/3 IP in his last start. He owns a 4.11 ERA this year. The Cincinnati Reds have done more than survive with star first baseman Joey Votto on the disabled list. They've thrived, in large part because of the contribution of young players. Rookies Todd Frazier and Zack Cozart hit late home runs to lift the Reds to another win Tuesday. They'll go for their 10th win in their last 13 games and try to distance themselves with ano try to continue distancing themselves from the National League Central pack when they continue a four-game series at Philadelphia. Arroyo (9-7, 3.96 ERA) has been solid this year and pitched well in his last effort against the Cubs, allowing 3 runs in 6 1/3 IP. The Reds should be favored against a much-inferior Phils team.

WEDNESDAY MLB FREE PICK: CINCINNATI REDS +100

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