Mets Win Total Prediction
After a playoff appearance in 2016, will the New York Mets find a way to improve on what they did this season?
According to oddsmakers at BetDSI, the Mets over/under for wins in 2017 has been set at 88.5. The over has odds of -130 while the under sits at +100. Their odds to win the 2017 World Series are listed at 12/1 currently, while their odds to win the NLCS are at 6/1.
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Terry Collins is set to enter his seventh season as manager of the team. New York is 481-491 in his time as skipper. Last season, the Mets went 87-75 and earned a Wild Card spot. They ultimately lost the Wild Card game to the Giants 3-0. It marked the second straight season the Mets made the postseason.
The Mets had a tremendous pitching staff last season, allowing just 617 runs in 2016. That was the third-fewest allowed in the majors. They have a lot of talent in their starting rotation, led by Noah Syndergaard, who had a 2.60 ERA and 14-9 record last season. He racked up 218 strikeouts as well. Bartolo Colon had a surprising year, going 15-8 with a 3.43 ERA over 191 innings, but he is now with the Braves. That means Jacob deGrom and Matt Harvey will have to step up. deGrom was 7-8 last season with a 3.04 ERA over 24 starts while Harvey was 4-10 with a 4.86 ERA over just 17 starts. The bullpen featured great middle reliever Addison Reed, who had 40 holds with a 1.97 ERA. Closer Jeurys Familia racked up 51 saves and had a 2.55 ERA.
The Mets have plenty of talent in their lineup, yet produced just 671 runs in 2016. Yoenis Cespedes is returning to the team this year after getting 86 RBI in 132 games. He had 31 home runs and 25 doubles as well while hitting .280. Cespedes was the only real run producer, as Asdrubal Cabrera and Curtis Granderson followed behind him in the RBI category with 62 and 59, respectively. While both are back, the Mets need some added pop. David Wright has played just 75 games over the last two seasons, so its unclear just what he will give this year. Jose Reyes returned to the team for 60 games a year ago, but hit just .267 with 24 RBI.
Oddsmakers expect a lot from the Mets, but I don’t see how they did enough to improve from a year ago. The lineup isn’t much different, the Mets are just relying on banged-up veterans to be healthy. When it comes to the pitching staff, they lost Colon, who did quite well, and are again counting on often-injured arms to stay healthy. While Syndergaard is a great ace and Cespedes is a great bat, that’s not enough to push for 90 wins in a very competitive National League.
2017 MLB SEASON WIN TOTAL PREDICTION: NEW YORK METS UNDER 88.5