NFL Bye Week Betting Strategy Print
Written by Carlos Salazar   
Thursday, 21 November 2013 18:23

NFL Bye Week Strategy

nfl week 12 football betting strategy

We're near the end of the bye weeks in the NFL. As a bettor, it's important to know the history of how some teams play coming off byes. Some of these trends are not pertinent, especially if there is a coaching change.

Get Carlos Salazar Expert Picks

For those bettors who are looking for a hook or different angle, taking a look at teams coming off a bye is at least something to take notice of. For example, there are two teams coming off bye this week: Dallas and St. Louis.

Dallas is 18-11 ATS (18-11 SU) coming off a bye the last 29, while St. Louis is 13-12 against the spread (12-12-1 SU). Most years, teams generally do well coming off byes, If you go back to 2007-10, teams were 61-44-5 against the spread and 65-54-1 straight up.

After doing a little research for this season, teams coming off a bye are just 11-15 ATS and 13-13 SU. What does that mean? Maybe this year is a fluke.
It's a strange coincidence because a bye week should help teams in the middle of the season. The bye week gives a coach an extra week of preparation and his team has the ability to recover from minor injuries.

Andy Reid was the perfect example of a coach who was great after byes in Philadelphia. He was 13-1 SU with Philadelphia until last week's loss at Denver. Not only did he lose that game, but Kansas City couldn't cover the 7.5, losing 27-17.

Nothing is concrete with these trends and when you look at an undefeated Kansas City team playing a soft schedule, this was a very tough test going to Denver. That's a Denver team that already had one loss and was more desperate to win this to capture the AFC West and eventually gain home field advantage in the AFC. They certainly were close to at least covering this game and playing the dog there wasn't a bad move. It would have been a better move if the Chiefs were playing the Chargers.

Another factor is considering a team's condition going into a bye. If a team is 2-5 coming off three straight losses going into the bye week, you have to wonder if a week off is enough to change things around. What about a team that's 6-1 going into the bye and has won four straight? Will the bye hinder their progress and slow their momentum down.

Teams coming off a bye usually have an edge over a team that is well-rested. This year may be anomaly when it comes to stats for teams coming off a bye. But remember when betting teams this week and next week, just to consider those playing against teams with extra rest and those who are coming off a bye.

For More of The Best Expert Picks and Analysis Check Out All The Handicappers at TheSpread Insiders!

 

Top Public Bets

#1 480 Kansas City Chiefs 86%
#2 485 San Francisco 49ers 83%
#3 491 San Diego Chargers 82%
#4 128 SAS Roughriders 75%
#5 463 New Orleans Saints 74%
#6 488 Denver Broncos 71%
#7 475 Buffalo Bills 68%
#8 481 New England Patriots 66%
#9 468 Pittsburgh Steelers 66%
#10 490 Detroit Lions 65%
View All: NFL |  NBA |  NCAAF |  NCAAB |  MLB |  NHL

Privacy Policy | Terms of Service | Contact Us | Advertising | 888-99-SPREAD

THIS IS NOT A GAMBLING SITE – If you think you have a gambling problem click here.

Disclaimer: This site is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Individual users are responsible for the laws regarding accessing gambling information from their jurisdictions. Many countries around the world prohibit gambling, please check the laws in your location. Any use of this information that may violate any federal, state, local or international law is strictly prohibited.

Copyright: The information contained on TheSpread.com website is protected by international copyright and may not be reproduced, or redistributed in any way without expressed written consent.

About: TheSpread.com is the largest sports betting news site in the United States. We provide point spread news, odds, statistics and information to over 199 countries around the world each year. Our coverage includes all North American College and Professional Sports as well as entertainment, political and proposition wagering news.

©1999-2013 TheSpread.com