|2014 Super Bowl XLVIII Top 5 Prop Bets to Wager|
|Written by Freddy Wills|
|Wednesday, 29 January 2014 09:00|
Best Super Bowl XLVIII Prop Bets
EAST RUTHERFORD, NJ (The Spread) - What are the best prop odds to wager on for Super Bowl XLVIII?
Here are my top five prop bets for the Super Bowl. Make sure you grab these early before the lines move as sports books will quickly remove value on these type of plays as the week goes on and they guarantee to lock up a profit.
Over 3.5 Field Goals +125 (Risk 1 Unit)
I've got the over in this one as Seattle was #2 in the league this season allowing just 39.02% TD's in the red zone while Denver ranked 28th at 62.12%. Denver was #1 in red zone offense with 72.73% of their opportunities resulting in a TD, but they struggled over their last 3 at just 57.14% while Seattle ranked just 14th, but only 25% over their last 3. Both teams also have 2 experienced kickers in Matt Prater and Steven Hauschka who can kick it in the cold. I think both defenses will have the advantage in this situation.
First Score of the game = Field Goal/Safety +120 (Risking 1 Unit)
I see a lot of value in this line because of what I mentioned from both teams in the red zone, but looking at the numbers there have been 36 games played by these two teams this year and it's an exact split with 18 of the 36 being having a field goal as the first score of the game.
Only 4 of the Broncos 18 games resulted in a FG being the first score of the game. Those 4 games were against the Patriots, Chiefs, Giants, and Texans. That sounds amazing only the Broncos faced just one team that was ranked in the top 10 in red zone defense and they faced that team in week 1 at home when the Ravens defense was basically rebuilt and not performing at the time. They faced 5 of the 6 worst teams in red zone defense and their division was very bad, Chargers who they played 3 times were ranked 24th, Oakland 22nd and the Chiefs 16th.
Seattle really struggled to get the ball in the end zone down the stretch and I like that Denver's strength is defending the run. Seattle really lacks a red zone threat and that's going to make it hard for them. The first score in both of the Seahawks playoff games have been field goals and that's been the story in 8 of their last 9 games and in reverse of Denver only 4 games of their 18 resulted in a TD being scored first which is proof that we have the value at +120.
Seahawks U132.5 Rushing Yards -110 (Risking 1 Unit)
I like the under here, because the Broncos have been a very under rated rushing defense ranked 7th in ypc allowed and 4th in yards per game. Broncos were 10th in big rushing plays allowed which is in the company of the 49ers and the Cardinals teams Seattle struggled to run on this year. That's the only way I see the Seahawks getting over this number but with the extra time to prepare I just don't see them finding those type of holes in a game this big. Denver has played their fair share of mobile QB's in Vick, Pryor (2x), and RGIII and have kept them under control.
In Fact the Broncos have faced 9 of their 18 opponents who are ranked in the top 10 in rushing ypc and have only allowed 107.33 in those games with only 3 going over the 132.5. While the Seahawks have played just 8 games against top 10 rushing defenses and only averaged 112.5 compared with their season average of 112.5.
Under 1.5 Total Interceptions +110 (Risking 1.5 Units)
Both QB's take care of the ball as Denver was ranked 2nd with a 1.46% interception percentage of passing attempts, while Russell Wilson was 7th at 1.94%. Denver was ranked 18th at forcing interceptions this year and they could have been worse considering how much they were probably able to gamble being up big in games. Now Seattle was ranked 1st in opponent INT%, but they faced only 3 QB's that I would consider elite. Drew Brees 2x, Andrew Luck, and Matt Ryan and those 4 games resulted in 0 INT's on 146 passing attempts.
Peyton Manning Longest Passing Completion U37.5 Yards -110 (Risking 2 Units)
I'm taking the under here not only did Seattle only allow 15 passing plays over 25 yards all year over 18 games, but the Broncos mostly dominated the weak passing defenses facing just 3 opponents in the top 15 in big passing plays allowed. In those 3 games Manning attempted 153 passes with only 1 pass going for more than 37.5 yards which was a 38 yard connection to Demaryius Thomas against the Titans. Seattle has a great pass rush and sure tacklers on the back end. Manning won't take a chance at getting sacked as he led the league in being sacked the fewest times. I expect him to be getting rid of the ball quick with a balanced running attack meaning this play has plenty of value in my opinion.