|2014 NBA Betting Tips & Strategy: Where to spot value in the Point Spread|
|Written by Brandon Shively|
|Friday, 10 January 2014 10:00|
NBA Betting Tips & Strategy
LAS VEGAS, NV (The Spread) - Here are a few tips and strategies to betting the NBA in order to find value in the point spreads.
I would like to look at two important factors in the NBA that if examined on a daily basis can be very beneficial to your bankroll. The NBA is an 82 game season, so we will see many different trends come and go. What does need to be evaluated every day is what teams are playing on back-to-back road games and also a look at an updated NBA injury report needs to be analyzed.
1) There are key situation's in the NBA when teams travel on the road that are always good to pay attention to as there will be ample opportunities to make money in these situations. The first is a back-to-back road game. It is tough for teams to travel on back to back nights and it is always smart to notice how far the team had to travel on the consecutive nights. Teams might play a late game, get on the plane late that night, and simply might be tired the next night. The second situation is a team playing their 3rd road game in 4 nights. I like to look at this 3rd game to be a prime spot to PLAY AGAINST the road team, especially if the team is coming off a SU Loss then inserted as a road favorite. It is not often, but when you see it happen, I advise you to take a closer look at the home dog in this situation as long as the home team is playing with rest. The 3rd situation is a team playing their 4th road game in 5 nights. Now this is VERY tough on ANY team in the NBA. This happens when a team plays a back-to-back, then takes 1 rest day, then plays another back-to-back. I like to look closely at these games as it might be a prime time to place a strong wager. While PLAYING AGAINST these fatigued road team is always an option, playing UNDER the TOTAL is also a possibility. The fatigued road team usually is in no hurry to push the pace, and if facing a defensive minded home team, then the UNDER could easily be a VERY SHARP play
2) Next always check an updated injury report. This is an 82 game season and players do get injured, get sick, and just might be given the night off for rest. The linesmakers will adjust for a player's absence in a game, so the value will be taken away. But sometimes there might be a player that you feel is worth more than the 1-3 points that the linesmakers have adjusted for. A lot of times, a team can rally together and play one game without their star player. A lot of times, if the public sees that Lebron, Wade, Carmello, and any of the other elite players miss a game; then that the other team is the correct play. This is so untrue and I will advise you not to fall for the trap bet. This is the NBA and these guys are an elite group of professionals that can all play basketball. So do not jump the gun when you see a NBA All-Star miss a game. The line has been adjusted already and there is no value. What I do advise though is to keep up with this injury report, and notice when players are getting healthy and being inserted back in the lineup. This is a great time when there will be value with a team as they get role players back in the lineup as the lines makers are sometimes slow at adjusting the lines for the players return .The Milwaukee Buck are the NBA's worst team and the line keeps getting bigger and bigger. Well, they are getting healthier as a team with Caron Butler and Larry Sanders back. Also John Henson should be coming back soon. This will be a team that will start to cover the spread as the line keeps getting inflated and I would put them on my 'watch' list when they are inserted as a double digit dog.
In closing, keep up with these road teams that are traveling on back-to-back road games and be patient for the right time to capitalize. Never force a play and be disciplined. This is the NBA and there will be games played tomorrow and the next day if you feel there is no value with the team you want to place a wager on. And keep up with injuries and when players are coming back in the rotation. I already mentioned the Milwaukee Bucks but the Philadelphia 76ers are another team that will be getting some key role players back soon, and when inserted as double digit dog, the 76ers might be a nice play.
As always, practice being patient and disciplined and you will see your bankroll grow at a more consistent rate. I have been monitoring the NBA closely this season and have some key games highlighted for the month of January that I will definitely be taking a closer look at. I am a low-volume capper that continues to build my clients bankroll. I would love to make you WINNER as well and I strongly recommend you check out my Premium Plays are Free Plays as well that will KEEP YOU IN THE WINNERS CIRLCE.