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MLB Betting News and Notes Wednesday, August 27

MLB Betting News and Notes Wednesday, August 27

Game of the Day: Yankees at Tigers

New York Yankees at Detroit Tigers (-172, 7.5)

David Price made a much-ballyhood change of address from Tampa Bay to Detroit at the trade deadline, but he will be facing a familiar foe when the Tigers host the New York Yankees on Wednesday night in the second of a three-game set. Price will oppose the Yankees for the fifth time this season, having posted a 1-1 record against them - including a no-decision in his Detroit debut on Aug. 5. The Tigers are 1 1/2 games out of first in the American League Central.

The Yankees had their five-game winning streak snapped with Tuesday's 5-2 defeat to drop 3 1/2 games behind Seattle for the second wild card and three back of Detroit. Jacoby Ellsbury, batting leadoff due to an injury to Brett Gardner, put up a week's worth of production in the past two games with six hits, three homers, five RBIs and four runs scored. Ellsbury, who reached 60 RBIs for the third time in his career, is 9-for-19 with four RBIs versus Price this season.

LINE HISTORY: The Tigers opened as -168 home favorites and now sit at -172. The total is currently set at 7.5.

INJURY REPORT: Yankees - 1B Mark Teixeira (Probable, hamstring), LF Brett Gardner (Questionable, ankle), SP Masahiro Tanaka (15-day DL, arm), SP David Phelps (15-day DL, elbow). Detroit - 1B Miguel Cabrera (Probable, ankle), Anibal Sanchez (Early Sept, pectoral), Joakim Soria (15-day DL, oblique).

COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Yankees (-157), Tigers (-173) .

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "Injuries on the mound have certainly played a role in the Tigers decline, but help could be on the way. The Yankees are getting hot at precisely the right time, riding a four-game winning streak into the new week." - Covers Expert Sean Murphy.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Yankees RHP Shane Green (3-1, 3.17 ERA) vs. Tigers LHP David Price (11-8, 3.11 ERA).

Greene turned in the best performance of his brief-major league career against the Tigers on Aug. 7, earning the victory with a season-high eight scoreless innings of five-hit ball. He followed that up with a pair of no-decisions, striking out 10 and permitting two runs over six innings at Tampa Bay and allowing three runs and nine hits over five innings versus the Chicago White Sox last time out. He is 2-0 with a 2.59 ERA away from home.

Price suffered a gut-wrenching 1-0 defeat against his former team on Thursday, allowing a first-inning RBI triple and nothing more before setting down the final 23 batters of a one-hit, nine-strikeout masterpiece. He is 1-1 with in four outings with the Tigers, the lone win coming when he gave up one run in eight innings to beat Seattle on Aug. 16. Yankees catcher Brian McCann has tormented Price this season, going 5-for-12 with three home runs.


* Under is 5-0 in the last five meetings.
* Over is 3-1-1 in the last five meetings in Detroit.
*  Yankees are 1-5 in their last six meetings in Detroit.
*  Tigers are 5-1 in their last six home games against a right-handed starter.

COVERS CONSENSUS: Sixty-two percent of wagers are behind Price and the Tigers at -172.

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Re: MLB Betting News and Notes Wednesday, August 27

Wednesday's Tip Sheet
By Kevin Rogers

Rays at Orioles

Probable Pitchers:
TB: Smyly (8-10, 3.42 ERA)
BAL: Gausman (7-5, 3.81 ERA)

Series recap: The Orioles bounced back after getting swept by the Cubs, as Baltimore has taken the first two games of this set. Following a 9-1 rout in Monday’s opener, the Orioles held off the Rays on Tuesday, 4-2 as short favorites, as Baltimore has won five of the past eight meetings against Tampa Bay.

What to watch for: Tampa Bay owns an impressive 8-1 record in its last nine Game 3’s of a road series, as this series concludes on Thursday. In four starts since joining the Rays’ rotation, Drew Smyly has cashed the ‘under’ all four times, while not allowing a run in his last two road outings. The Orioles are a perfect 6-0 in Kevin Gausman’s six night starts this season, while the right-hander has split a pair of outings against Tampa Bay.

Yankees at Tigers

Probable Pitchers:
NYY: Greene (3-1, 3.17 ERA)
DET: Price (12-9, 3.00 ERA)

Series recap: The Yankees saw their five-game winning streak disappear in Tuesday’s opener at Detroit in a 5-2 setback. New York played in its third different city in three days after winning a make-up game at Kansas City on Monday, while the Tigers improved to 2-3 this season against the Yankees.

What to watch for: The Tigers have compiled a 2-2 record in David Price’s four starts since coming over from the Rays, with one of those victories coming in the Bronx, 4-3 in extra innings. Detroit owns a 6-2 record in its last eight Game 2’s of a home series, while going 8-1 this season after winning the opener of a series at Comerica Park. Since the All-Star break, the Yankees have won all four road starts made by Shane Greene, as the right-hander tossed eight shutout innings the last time he faced the Tigers in a 1-0 victory.

Braves at Mets

Probable Pitchers:
ATL: Teheran (12-9, 2.96 ERA)
NYM: Wheeler (9-8, 3.48 ERA)

Series recap: The Mets found a way to edge the Braves last night, 3-2 even without David Wright and David Murphy in the lineup. New York has won five of the past six home meetings against Atlanta, as the Mets cashed on Tuesday as +140 underdogs.

What to watch for: The Braves are 2-3 in Julio Teheran’s previous five road starts, which includes an 8-3 setback at Citi Field as -145 favorites in early July. Since July, the Mets have won seven of Zack Wheeler’s last nine starts, with the only two losses coming in walk-off fashion by one run each. Wheeler has seen plenty of success against the Braves at home in his short career, winning all three times, each in the underdog role.

Indians at White Sox

Probable Pitchers:
CLE: Kluber (13-7, 2.46 ERA)
CHW: Noesi (7-9, 4.86 ERA)

Series recap: The White Sox dropped their seventh straight game after falling in extra innings to the Indians, 8-6 as -150 home favorites. Chicago erased an early 3-0 deficit by grabbing a 6-5 lead, but the Indians scored two runs in the top of the 10th inning to win their third consecutive contest.

What to watch for: For the first time since late June, Corey Kluber suffered a loss in his last start, a 4-1 defeat at Minnesota as a -135 road favorite. The Indians have dropped two of Kluber’s three outings against Chicago this season, as the right-hander struck out a career-high 13 in a 4-3 setback on May 4 in which the Cleveland bullpen allowed three runs in the ninth inning. Hector Noesi saw a four-game home winning streak in his starts snapped against Baltimore in his past trip to the mound, as the right-hander allowed six runs in a 7-4 defeat at Progressive Field in mid-July.

Brewers at Padres

Probable Pitchers:
MIL: Gallardo (8-7, 3.38 ERA)
SD: Despaigne (3-5, 3.44 ERA)

Series recap: The Brewers routed the Padres in Monday’s opener, 10-1 as -140 favorites, but followed that performance up with a clunker last night. San Diego cruised past Milwaukee, 4-1 as short favorites, as the Padres improved to 11-2 in their past 13 games at Petco Park.

What to watch for: Milwaukee has won each of Yovani Gallardo’s last three road starts, which includes victories as heavy dogs at Los Angeles (+170) and Tampa Bay (+155). Rookie Odrisamer Despaigne is coming off two rough road starts against the Diamondbacks and Cardinals, but the Padres have won three of his five outings at Petco Park. Four of the five meetings between these teams have finished ‘under’ the total, while the Padres have scored three runs or less four times.

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Re: MLB Betting News and Notes Wednesday, August 27

MLB Betting News and Notes

Royals' Ventura to miss start

Royals rookie right-hander Yordano Ventura will skip his Wednesday start because of a sore back.

Yadier Molina to begin rehab assignment Wednesday

Yadier Molina took a round of batting practice on Tuesday night at Double-A Springfield and has been cleared to catch five or six innings there Wednesday in his first minor league rehab game.

Reds RHP Bailey may miss rest of season

Homer Bailey's prospects for pitching again this season are appearing more bleak. Bailey has not started a throwing program, and on Tuesday, manager Bryan Price said he's not close to doing so.

Mets' 3B David Wright, questionable Wednesday

Wright left Sunday's game due to muscle spasms and did not play Tuesday. He is questionable for Wednesday against the Braves.

Red Sox's DH David Ortiz, questionable Wednesday

Ortiz is dealing with a foot contusion and has missed the last two games. He is questionable for Wednesday against the Blue Jays.

Pirates' 3B Pedro Alvarez, doutbful Wednesday

Alvarez left the game Tuesday due to a left foot injury. He is not expected to return for Wednesday's game against the Cardinals.

Pirates' McCutchen: rib issue is minor

Pittsburgh Pirates center fielder Andrew McCutchen was removed from Tuesday's game after five innings because of discomfort in his left ribcage.

He said after the game that the ailment was minor.

McCutchen was on the disabled list from Aug. 4-18 with a fracture in his lower left ribcage, and he appeared to aggravate the injury in the third inning when he leaped to catch a long fly ball by St. Louis Cardinals third baseman Matt Carpenter for the last out.

McCutchen batted twice after that, striking out in the third and flying out to right field in the fifth, before exiting.

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Re: MLB Betting News and Notes Wednesday, August 27

MLB Betting News and Notes

Hitters wind at PNC doesn't mean overs

There is some weather on tap for Wednesday afternoon's National League Central showdown wen the St. Louis Cardinals visit the Pittsburgh Pirates, including a hitters wind that hasn't translated to overs.

There will be a 25 percent chance of rain for the matinee with a chance of thunderstorms in the forecast. There will also be an eight mile per hour wind blowing out to center.

However, at PNC Park, in situations where ther has been a wind blowing out to center like this, teams have gones just 1-6 over/under.

Mariners unhappy to see this ump behind home plate

The Seattle Mariners are in the midst of a playoff race and unfortunately they face another obstacle Wednesday when they host the Texas Rangers in umpire Tim Timmons.

The Mariners are just 1-11 in their last 12 games when Timmons has been calling balls and strikes. Seattle is currently a -175 favorite when they send Erasmo Ramirez to the mound to face the Rangers' Colby Lewis.

This ump has been an under machine this season

When Tony Randazzo is behind the plate this season the under has been a great bet and that's where he'll be when the St. Louis Cardinals visit the Pittsburgh Pirates Wednesday afternoon.

Teams are 2-12 over/under in games when Randazzo is calling balls and strikes this season and the under is 12-3-1 in Randazzo's last 16 games dating back to last year.

The total for the Cardinals-Pirates matinee is currently at 7.5.

Low total accurate for these two teams this season

When it comes to offense nobody will be thinking of the Atlanta Braves of New York Mets. This season the Braves and Mets have combined for 27 games with a total of 6.5 or less, in those games the teams have scored a combined 5.8 runs per game.

The Braves travel to New York with a total of 6.5 Wednesday.

Offense scarce on the diamond, as unders rule

MLB action has not been home to a lot of offense over the past two days. The over/under record is 8-17-1 on the diamond between Monday and Tuesday.

The league average for runs per game over those contests is 7.1. 16 of the 26 games (61.5 percent) of all games have scored seven runs or less.

Offense galore with these teams meet

The Houston Astros and Oakland Athletics have been a boon for totals bettors. In the last seven meetings between the two clubhouses, the over has gone 6-1.

Those seven games have seen an average of almost 11 runs per game and only twice have the teams failed to hit double-digit runs scored.

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Re: MLB Betting News and Notes Wednesday, August 27

MLB Odds and Picks
By: Micah Roberts

LAS VEGAS -- We've got three of the top-7 earners in baseball starting games tonight. No, not earners salary-wise, but earners who have produced the most return-on-investment for bettors. All three look like good candidates to win tonight, but only two of them are playable as the best pitcher in the game is once again out of our price range.

That best pitcher of course is Clayton Kershaw (15-2, 1.82 ERA), who the Dodgers have gone 17-4 behind this season, but because his price is usually -190 or above, his losses have been magnified to the point it takes two wins with him to make up for one loss. Still, he comes at No. 7 on the list of most profitable starters at +9.8 units.

The Dodgers have won 14 of his last 15 starts, but along with the high -220 price on the road at Arizona, there might be one more reason to be cautious with Kershaw today. His worst outing of the season came on May 17 at Arizona when he lasted only 1.2 innings and gave up seven earned runs. It's his only start this season that he's given up more than three runs.

Kershaw is long removed from that stretch, which was only his third start after missing the entire month of April, but it's enough of a scare tactic to really hold the brakes with a betting strategy that involves the Dodgers tonight.

For those run-line players who couldn't care less what the game price is on great pitchers because of getting a good price laying -1.5 runs, consider that in his only start against Arizona since they roughed him up, the Dodgers won 4-3 at Dodger Stadium on June 13. He's also been involved in four one-run games over his last five starts coming in. If looking at Arizona +1.5 tonight, the South Point will give you +110.

Hughes and Alvarez Offer Great Plus-Money Tonight

The top earner in baseball has been Minnesota's Phil Hughes (14-8, 3.65) with +11.7 units of profit if wagering on him in every start. The Twins have gone 17-9 behind him this season, but because he doesn't have the metrics as some of the top pitchers and his team already has one of the lowest team ratings, he rarely finds himself as the favorite which has allowed him to pile up plus-money wins all season.

Hughes has been an underdog in nine of his last 11 outings and he comes in on this stretch of the season where he's won his last four starts allowing only one earned run in each. In his last three starts, he's taken down some very good teams, like beating Corey Kluber and Cleveland on Thursday, beating the red-hot Royals on Aug. 16 and then knocking off the A's on Aug. 10. Between those three starts, bettors took home +395 in profits if siding with Hughes.

Hughes' plight is so bad on paper that he's not even favored against Liam Hendricks tonight in Kansas City. Hendricks hasn't pitched in the majors since June 20 and has started 23 Triple-A games (12-2, 2.45) between Buffalo and Omaha, and yet he still comes in as a -115 favorite over Hughes.

Over in Anaheim tonight we have a similar situation where the team rating for the Angels far exceeds what the Marlins have to offer despite a lopsided pitching match-up. On one side we have Hector Santiago, who the Angels have lost four straight behind, as a -145 favorite over Henderson Alvarez (10-5, 2.57), who comes in tied for second as the most profitable starter in baseball at +11.2 units.

All Alvarez does is win. He's won his last four starts and the Marlins have won 14 of his last 16 starts. The beautiful thing about him is that he's been either pick 'em or an underdog in 12 of those last 16 starts. The Angels have a lineup that can make any good pitcher look bad, but with a four-game series starting tomorrow against the A's, the Marlins might be able to catch the Angels in a vulnerable moment. Alvarez has huge value tonight.

Is Wainwright Alright?

What's going on with Adam Wainwright? Before the All-Star break he had an ERA of 1.76. Since then he's gone 3-4 with a 4.70 ERA, allowing three runs or more in five of his seven starts, something he did only twice over his first 18 starts. He comes in as a -120 favorite at Pittsburgh in this afternoon's rubber match, a number that started at -130 in the overnight line.

Despite the Cardinals alternating wins and losses in each of his last seven starts and his higher-than-normal walk rate (3.48 walks per nine innings), he's still going for an NL-leading 16th win of the season and the Pirates have been a team he seems to have figured out. He hasn't allowed a run to them in his last two starts this season and is 4-1 with a 0.80 ERA in his last six starts overall against them, including the postseason.

Last season we kind of saw Wainwright go into a late August funk by allowing 16 runs over a two start stretch and in his next outing he faced Pittsburgh and beat them 5-0. The Cardinals aren't doing anything special at the plate lately, but Wainwright is cheaper than we've seen him since being -125 at Milwaukee in early July, so he looks like a decent play today and the Pirates seem to be his get-well tonic.

Wednesday selections:

Cardinals (Wainwright) -120 at Pirates

Twins (Hughes) +105 at Kansas City

Marlins (Alvarez) +135 at Angels

Padres (Despaigne) +130 vs. Brewers

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Re: MLB Betting News and Notes Wednesday, August 27

MLB Betting Cheat Sheet

Here’s a comprehensive look at betting notes for the mid-week major-league games:

Low Balling

The under proved to be a strong play in Tuesday’s action, going 4-10-1 on a night buoyed by shutouts from the Chicago Cubs (+158), San Francisco Giants (-235) and Seattle Mariners (-203). More than 55 percent of games have gone under in the past seven days.

Kershaw a Trend Buster

Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw looks to continue bucking his team’s recent trend as he leads visiting Los Angeles (-218, 7) into Arizona Wednesday. The Dodgers are 0-3 over/under in Kershaw’s last three starts, but are 9-3 O/U in all other games during that stretch.

Marquee Matchup

AL West powers meet Thursday night as the Los Angeles Angels open a four-game series with the Oakland Athletics. Oakland has an 8-4 straight up advantage in the head-to-head series so far in 2014, with the teams combining to go 7-4-1 O/U in that span.

Pitching Notes

New York Mets righty Zach Wheeler has been as dependable as they come heading into Wednesday’s encounter with the visiting Atlanta Braves (-122, 6.5). Wheeler has has allowed two runs or fewer in nine of his last 10 starts, while going at least six innings all but once in that span.

New York Yankees right-hander Hiroki Kuroda is on an under roll as he prepares to face the host Detroit Tigers on Thursday night. Kuroda is 0-5 O/U in his last five starts, though the Yankees are just 2-3 over that span – including two losses as favorites.

Hitting Notes

Watch out for New York Yankees outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury, who is batting .444 with three homers, seven RBIs and three stolen bases over his last seven days. Ellsbury will likely take his regular spot at the top of the lineup for Wednesday’s game versus the Tigers (-173, 7.5)

Baltimore outfielder Adam Jones will look to exploit a favorable matchup Thursday as the Orioles face the Tampa Bay Rays. Jones is batting .333 with four homers in 42 career at-bats against Rays starter Jeremy Hellickson.

Totals Streak

Houston Astros (1-6 O/U): The Astros have seen their share of solid pitching performances during a 3-4 stretch, allowing just five combined runs in the wins while scoring a paltry five runs in the losses. Houston is 63-67-3 O/U for the season entering Wednesday’s game against visiting Oakland (-160, 8.5).

Prop of the Day

Feeling brave? Take a shot on the host Diamondbacks defeating Kershaw and the Dodgers by more than two runs, a prop that pays a whopping +800. Kershaw’s worst start of the season came at Chase Field back on May 17, when he allowed seven runs in just 1 2/3 innings.

Injury Notes

New York Mets third baseman David Wright told reporters Tuesday his shoulder isn’t 100 percent, a development that has contributed to his recent slump at the plate. Wright has missed nine games this season, with the Mets going 3-6 SU, 4-5 O/U and -172 units in those contests.

Rockies left-hander Jorge De La Rosa left Tuesday’s start against the San Francisco Giants with a left thumb contusion, and is questionable to make his next start. Colorado went on to lose the game 3-0, dropping to 0-5 SU in De La Rosa’s last five road starts.

Weather Watch

Wind at PNC Park will blow out to center field at 7 mph for Wednesday’s game between the host Pittsburgh Pirates (+112, 7.5) and the St. Louis Cardinals. Teams averaged 1.58 home runs under similar conditions in 2013 – well above stadium averages – but batted just .229.

Umpire Note of the Day

Seattle is just 1-11 in its last 12 games with umpire Tim Timmons behind home plate. Timmons will call the balls and strikes Wednesday when the Mariners (-170, 7.5) entertain the Texas Rangers.

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