Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, August 27

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, August 27

Wunderdog

Milwaukee @ San Diego
Pick: San Diego +130

The Milwaukee Brewers opened the season at 20-7, and it was a big enough start to the season to allow their pedestrian play since to hold a 1.5 game lead in the NL Central. Since the big start, the Brewers have played just three games over the .500 mark. San Diego evened the series at one game each, and the Padres have been living large at home of late where they are 16-5 in their last 21 here. Yovani Gallardo gave up six runs in his last outing, and is 8-7 on the season. This is a very soft spot for Gallardo and the Brew Crew as they are 2-8 in his last 10 starts to a posted total of 7 to 8.5. Milwaukee has also lost his last four starts as a favorite of -110 to -150, and they are just 7-15 in his last 22 starts following a game where they scored 2 or fewer.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, August 27

Mike Rose

Braves at Mets
Play: Mets

I agree wholeheartedly with the line movement for tonight’s G2 between the division rival Braves and Mets. Teheran opened in the -135 range and has since been bet down 10 cents. I honestly don’t think he should be favored in this one, as the splits for this one aren’t on his side. He’s been a much lesser pitcher away from Turner (7-7, 3.99 ERA) and will be running up against a confident Mets club that looks to be gaining confidence for next season with every passing game. On top of that, Zach Wheeler is on the precipice of becoming one of the best SPs in the league; so long as he can control his wildness. The kid has struck out 148 in nearly 153 innings of work, and has allowed 2 runs or less in nine of his L/10 starts. He’s fared well vs. the Braves weak hitting and free swinging lineup, and I foresee him leading his club to the series win in this one.

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Jeff Alexander

Blue Jays -133

The Red Sox have taken the first 2 games of this 3-game set, but they've still dropped 8 of 10 overall and 10 of 13 versus Toronto.  The odds are against Boston pulling off the sweep with Kelly on the mound.  He has a 4.89 road ERA on the season, and the Sox have lost both of his starts versus AL opponents.  Stroman has been reliable at home where he has a 2.23 ERA.  He's also 2-0 with a 0.64 ERA in a pair of starts versus Boston this season.  The Blue Jays are 5-2 in Stroman's last 7 starts as a home favorite.

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Doug Upstone

New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers    
Play: Detroit Tigers -169

Play Against  AL underdogs with a money line of +150 or more like the Yankees, with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.20 or better on the season, against opponent with a starting pitcher who throws more than 6.5 innings per start. Here we find a pitcher who despite having good numbers as an underdog is good-sized pooch. The reason has to be the dog is facing a better team with a pitcher who knows what he is doing. Since 2010, theses Play Against teams are 6-42!

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, August 27

Jack Jones

Cleveland Indians -1½ -110

The Cleveland Indians (67-63) continue to battle for the final wild card spot in the American League.  They trail the Seattle Mariners by 4.5 games for that spot with 32 to play, so they clearly need to make a run.  They have been by winning seven of their last 10 games overall.

Now, they send ace Corey Kluber to the mound to take down the Chicago White Sox (59-72), who have lost seven in a row and have nothing to play for.  Kluber has gone 13-7 with a 2.46 ERA and 1.079 WHIP in 27 starts this season.  He is 3-1 with a 3.59 ERA and 1.091 WHIP in seven career starts against Chicago.

The White Sox will be giving the ball to Hector Noesi, who is 7-8 with a 4.44 ERA and 1.369 WHIP over 21 starts this season.  He has been at his worst at home, going 5-5 with a 4.56 ERA and 1.391 WHIP in 12 starts.  Noesi is also 0-1 with a 3.93 ERA and 1.309 WHIP in three career starts against Cleveland.

Kluber is 12-2 against the run line (+12.3 Units) vs. teams whose hitters draw three walks or less/game in the second half of the season over the last two seasons.  Chicago is 21-43 against the run line (-24.0 Units) in home games vs. division opponents over the last two seasons.  The Indians are 12-2 against the run line (+12.5 Units) after a game where their bullpen blew a save this season.  I look for Cleveland to win by two-plus runs tonight.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, August 27

Dave Price

Milwaukee Brewers -139

The Brewers have the edge with Gallardo on the mound.  He's been at his best on the road where he has a 2.57 ERA in 12 starts.  He's 5-0 with a 1.65 ERA in his last seven road starts and is 3-1 with a 3.16 ERA in four starts at Petco Park.  He's also in good current form, allowing one run or none in four of his last six starts.  San Diego's Despaigne has cooled off since a hot start and has given up four runs or more in five of his last six starts.  The Brewers are 25-10 in Gallardo's last 35 starts as a road favorite.  The Padres are 0-5 in Despaigne's last 5 starts versus a team with a winning record.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, August 27

Hollywood Sports

Nationals at Phillies
Prediction: Over

Washington (75-56) has played 11 of their last 12 road games Over the Total when favored in the -110 to -150 price range. Additionally, the Nationals have played 4 straight games Over the Total with Fister pitching as a favorite. The Over is also 12-4-1 in the Phillies' last 17 home games versus right-handed starting pitchers. Furthermore, Philadelphia (60-72) has played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total with Kendrick pitching as an underdog.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, August 27

Bob Balfe

Miami Marlins +130

Miami is looking to get to .500 baseball, they have a great pitcher on the mound, have been hitting left handers well and have been hitting the ball in general very well as of late. This is a great spot for a nice underdog play. Take Miami.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, August 27

Line Catchers

Tampa Bay Rays + 105

The Orioles were swept at the hands of the Cubs over the weekend and have recovered by taking the first two games of this series against the Rays, but in my view, tonights matchup is very favourable for Tampa Bay, especially on the mound.

Drew Smyly gets the nod for the Rays and has been solid since joining the Tampa rotation after the David price trade to Detroit, Smyly has gone 2-1 with a 1.55 ERA and 0.76 WHIP over four starts and has struck out 23 batters. In his last 2 road outings, Smyly has pitched 16 2/3 innings of scoreless baseball and allowed just 3 walks to 13 punch outs. The lefty has faced the Orioles once this campaign, allowing just 1 ER in 6 IP.

Kevin Gausman will toe the slab for Baltimore who will be looking to take a 3-0 lead in this 4 game series tonight. Gausman has allowed at least 3 ER in 4 of his last 5 trips to the mound and has issued 11 walks in that span. In 7 home starts, Gausman is 4-3 with a 4.38 ERA and 1.33 WHIP. The righty has faced the Rays 3 times in is career, going 1-2 with a lofty 7.05 ERA and 1.83 WHIP, 2 of those starts were in 2014. The Rays collectively have a combined .286 BA against Gausman to go with a .375 OBP this year.

The Rays are an impressive 8-1 in their last nine Game 3’s of a road series, I look for them to make to 9-1 tonight.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, August 27

Andre Gomes

Rangers / Mariners Over 7.5

My fair line for this contest is 8-runs so we are getting some value in my opinion w/ OVER @ plus money. This series has been a low scoring one w/ the first 2 games going bellow the total posted, but I think that both offenses will have some edge vs. SP's in this matchup.

TEX SP's Colby Lewis has been ultra inconsistent lately w/ some high pitch count numbers on his L3 starts. His problems vs. LH batters this season are well noticed as he is allowing LH bats to have .352 BA + .406 wOBA against him! Now, here's SEA lineup for today:

1. Austin Jackson (R) CF

2. Dustin Ackley (L) LF

3. Robinson Cano (L) DH

4. Kendrys Morales (S) 1B

5. Kyle Seager (L) 3B

6. Mike Zunino (R) C

7. Logan Morrison (L) RF

8. Chris Taylor (R) SS

9. Brad Miller (L) 2B

6 LH batters on the lineup! This SEA lineup is a bad matchup for him and no wonder, Lewis had some problems vs. SEA on his 3 starts against them this season by allowing 5, 3 & 4 ER's!

On the other side, SEA will send Erasmo Ramirez to the mound and he is basically just filling a spot for them to give some rest to SEA's elite SP's. Ramirez' numbers in this season aren't that good w/ 4.06 ERA, 5.15 FIP & 4.67 xFIP! TEX struggled in the first 2 games of the series because they have faced 2 young LHP's who are pitching well lately in Elias and Paxton. The same cannot be said about Ramirez and therefore, I also expect them to put some runs in the scoreboard in this contest.

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