Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, August 27

Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, August 27

DUNKEL INDEX

MLB

Milwaukee at San Diego
The Padres look to follow up last night's 4-1 win as they face a Brewers team that is 0-4 in Yovani Gallardo's last 4 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. San Diego is the pick (+120) according to Dunkel, which has the Padres favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+120)

Game 951-952: St. Louis at Pittsburgh (12:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Wainwright) 15.442; Pittsburgh (Locke) 16.509
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1; 9
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-145); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+125); Over

Game 953-954: Washington at Philadelphia (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Fister) 17.199; Philadelphia (Kendrick) 15.622
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Washington (-170); 8
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-170); Under

Game 955-956: Atlanta at NY Mets (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Teheran) 15.899; NY Mets (Wheeler) 16.720
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1; 5
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-140); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+120); Under

Game 957-958: Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Turner) 15.824; Cincinnati (Latos) 14.128
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 959-960: Milwaukee at San Diego (9:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Gallardo) 14.952; San Diego (Despaigne) 15.883
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 6
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-140); 7
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+120); Under

Game 961-962: LA Dodgers at Arizona (9:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Kershaw) 15.178; Arizona (Miley) 13.710
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-210); 7
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-210); Over

Game 963-964: Colorado at San Francisco (10:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Morales) 16.021; San Francisco (Hudson) 15.225
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1; 8
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-210); 7
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+180); Over

Game 965-966: Texas at Seattle (3:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Lewis) 14.874; Seattle (Ramirez) 16.335
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 967-968: Tampa Bay at Baltimore (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Smyly) 14.520; Baltimore (Gausman) 15.861
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Baltimore (-125); 8
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-125); Under

Game 969-970: NY Yankees at Detroit (7:08 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Greene) 16.904; Detroit (Price) 15.779
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1; 6
Vegas Line: Detroit (-175); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (+155); Under

Game 971-972: Boston at Toronto (7:07 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Kelly) 14.339; Toronto (Stroman) 15.766
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Toronto (-150); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-150); Over

Game 973-974: Cleveland at Chicago White Sox (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Kluber) 15.678; White Sox (Noesi) 13.620
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 2; 9
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-180); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-180); Over

Game 975-976: Minnesota at Kansas City (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Hughes) 16.221; Kansas City (Hendriks) 15.308
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1; 6
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-160); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+140); Under

Game 977-978: Oakland at Houston (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Pomeranz) 14.752; Houston (Peacock) 15.533
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Oakland (-160); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+140); Over

Game 979-980: Miami at LA Angels (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (Alvarez) 16.093; LA Angels (Santiago) 15.292
Dunkel Line: Miami by 1; 9
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-150); 8
Dunkel Pick: Miami (+130); Over

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DAVE COKIN

MINNESOTA TWINS AT KANSAS CITY ROYALS
PLAY: MINNESOTA TWINS

The Royals can’t do much wrong these days. They’re playing inspired ball, and finding ways to win even when they look dead in the water, as was the case on Tuesday evening. But no one wins ‘em all, and I think we’ve got a great shot to knock off the sizzling Royals tonight.

Phil Hughes is having a superb season for Minnesota. I figured Hughes to do somewhat better getting out of the Bronx. He was a terrible fit for Yankee Stadium, and let’s face it, the Big Apple is an absolute pressure cooker that can absolutely get the best of some players regardless of their chosen sport. But I can’t say I expected anything resembling what we’ve seen from Hughes this season. He’s a legit Top 25 pitcher right now. There’s not a thing phony about his numbers, and he’s pitching at an ace level. There’s no way I saw that coming, and I doubt there’s many who did.

Hughes rates a commanding advantage tonight as he squares off with Liam Hendriks. Hendriks is subbing for Yordano Ventura, who got scratched with a back flareup. Even a broken clock is right twice each day, so anything is possible. But Hendriks has never shown that he can get big league hitters out on a regular basis. The interesting thing with Hendriks is that he appears to have good enough stuff to be a serviceable big league commodity, either at the back end of a rotation or more likely out of the pen. But just as I believe that Hughes was mentally fried pitching in New York, it could be that it’s what’s between the ears that has stymied Hendriks.

I’m sure Hendricks would love to knock off the Twins. That’s the team that drafted him and basically just gave up on him, so there’s major motivation here. But Hughes is on a monster roll right now and the Twins appear to play with more focus when their ace is on the mound.

Whether or not this makes my personal card today is yet to be decided, as I’ll have to make an assessment once the number settles in. But Hughes has gotten me paid a few times this season, and he’s definitely in go with mode presently. If I don’t get priced out, the Twins will be on my ticket as I’m more than willing to keep firing on Hughes.

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Bryan Power

Oakland vs. Houston
Pick: Over

Prior to yesterday's 4-2 upset by Houston, the winning team had scored a minimum of seven runs each of the last six times the A's and Astros met.  That includes an 8-2 win by Oakland in the season opener. Therefore, it shouldn't be much of a surprise to see that all six games went Over the total With a pretty shaky looking pitching matchup tonight, I expect the winning for Over bettors will resume here.

For Oakland, Drew Pomeranz gets his 1st start at the big league level in nearly two months. The A's usually surefire rotation has let them down of late and I'm not sure Pomeranz is the right choice to set them back on the right path. In two career appearances vs. Houston, his ERA is a woeful 13.50.  His last big league start saw him allow eight runs in just 3 2/3 IP and that was against Texas.

For Houston, Brad Peacock has just had a pretty bad season.  He has a 5.09 ERA and 1.531 WHIP in 19 starts. He hasn't lasted more than five innings in six straight starts.  Oakland had gone Over in five of six prior to yday's result.  They continue to lead MLB in runs scored.

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Marc Lawrence

New York Yankees at Detroit Tigers
Prediction: New York Yankees

Edges - Yankees: Greene 6-0 at night, and 4-0 with 2.63 ERA away, and 4-0 as a dog, and 3-0 versus A.L. Central foes in his MLB career team starts. With Tigers? southpaw David Price just 1-3 his last four overall team starts versus the Pinstripes, we recommend a 1-unit play on the Yankees in this pivotal ESPN clash.

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Ben Burns

Cleveland Indians vs. Chicago White Sox    
Play: Cleveland Indians -175

The White Sox were able to score six runs and force extra innings yesterday, despite losing to Cleveland.  Facing Corey Kluber tonight, I don't see things being as competitive.

Kluber, who was NOT an All-Star by the way, is having a fantastic season. The team did not win his last start, but in the eight previous he was 6-0 with a 1.31 ERA.  He'd allowed a total of just two runs over five starts, which spanned 39 innings.

The White Sox were actually favored Tuesday, but obviously won't be tonight.  They have lost seven in a row and are facing one of the best pitchers in the American League.  Kluber has a 2.95 ERA vs Chicago this season.

Meanwhile, White Sox starter Hector Noesi has allowed 9 runs in his last two starts, bad enough for a 6.75 ERA.

Cleveland is 23-10 vs. Chicago the last two seasons.

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Scott Spreitzer

Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Diego Padres    
Play: Milwaukee Brewers -139

Yovani Gallardo has been terrific on the road this season, including his last three, where he's allowed just 2 earned runs and 18 base runners in 22 innings of work.  It's a distinct pitching advantage for the road team with Odrisamer Despaigne going for the Padres.  The right-hander pitched well on August 12, but the four surrounding starts (2 previous and 2 since) have not gone well, getting tagged for 18 earned runs and 34 base runners in 20 1/3 IP.  Despaigne will face a Milwaukee lineup averaging 5.5 rpg in their last six road contests.  The Brewers are on a 20-6 run when Gallardo starts on the road against teams with a losing record, while the Friars have dropped five straight when Despaigne toes the rubber against teams with a winning mark.  We'll back the Brewers on Wednesday night.

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Art Aronson

Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies    
Play: Washington Nationals -159

The visiting Nats will send Doug Fister (12-4, 2.38 ERA) to toe the rubber; Fister is coming off a rare poor outing where he allowed four earned runs over six innings in a loss to the Giants. A date vs. Philadelphia is just what the doctor ordered to return to form though, note that the big right-hander is 2-1 while limiting the Phillies to just four earned runs and 13 hits over 22 innings in three career starts. Philadelphia counters with Kyle Kendrick (6-11, 4.93 ERA), who allowed three runs in the first inning but settled down to defeat the Cardinals on Friday, allowing four runs over 6 1/3 innings in the end; it’s important to note though that the win was his first since July 25th. The bottom line is, Kendrick has a 6.10 ERA since June 21st, worst in the National League. Additionally, Kendrick is just 5-10 with a ballooned 5.00 ERA against the Nationals, his most losses versus any team (also note that Kendrick has posted a deplorable 8.02 ERA in losing his last four matchups in the series). Despite taking the first two of this series, the Phillies are still well under .500 at home and several of the Nats’ sluggers have dominated Kendrick throughout their careers, I think the table is set for a Washington victory.


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Jim Feist

Boston vs. Toronto
Play: Over 8½

Boston has upgraded the offense and is in Toronto, a great park for hitters. The over is 11-5 in Red Sox last 16 during game 3 of a series and they go with newcomer Joe Kelly, who had a 4.26 ERA mostly in the NL now he has to face teams with the DH and in the AL East, a division with small parks. Kelly has allowed 7 runs his last 9 innings. He faces a powerhouse Toronto offense ranked 5th in baseball in runs scored, slugging, and batting average, plus 6th in on base percentage. The over is 8-2 in the Red Sox's last 10 games vs. a right-handed starter and they face struggling righty Marcus Stroman, who has allowed 15 runs his last 5+ innings! The over is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings in Toronto, so look for an offensive show.

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Frank Jordan

Abilene Christian vs. Georgia State
Play: Georgia State -4

Abilene Christian started last year off with a three game winning streak scoring 196 points in those three games, but they were all at home and once they hit the road the winning stopped losing each of the next three and five of eight. They did end the year 6-5, but no bowl game and were just 2-4 on the road as they open at Georgia State. Georgia State went 0-12 last season allowing 24 points in each game, 30+ in 11 of the games and 40+ in four games. They fought hard on the home turf coming close to winning in the fourth game of the season losing in overtime to Jacksonville State. Look for Georgia State to be a year better as they rinse away the bad taste from last season with an opening day home victory by 10.

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Rob Vinciletti

Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets    
Play: New York Mets +126

The Mets fit a nice dog system here that pertains to home dogs off a home dog win by 1 run. A role the Mets are 4-0 themselves in this year. The Mets have Z. Wheeler going an he has been hot in the second half and has some of the best numbers you ill find. he has won his last 4 home starts and all 3 home vs Atlanta. Teheran for the Braves allowed 5 runs in 3 innings and 11 hit here earlier in the seasons and the Braves have lost 20 of 30 on the road when the total is 7 or less. Look for the Mets to take another from the Braves.


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Sleepyj

St. Louis Cardinals -118

The St. Louis Cardinals will look to take this series Vs. the Pirates today with a early day game. They will send Adam Wainwright to the mound who is the teams ace. The Cardinals are right now tied for the NL Wildcard and can't afford to slip up and let that slip away. These are the outings with your best pitcher you usually get a focused effort. The Cardinals will be looking to this game as they close out this road trip and get a nice home stand as well. St. Louis will face LHP Jeff Locke tonight and the Cardinals have had success against LHP thus far this year. Locke is much better at home but i feel the Cardinals will have a good game here today. Locke has been rather lost at the mound with his location and is giving up walks as well. That's not a good recipe Vs. this Cardinals lineup. The price is right here to back Wainwright on the road as well. Wainwright lost his last outing so i think we will see a focused effort out of him today. This is more of a play on Wainwright and a team that has more to play for right now. Lets back the Cardinals today.

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LT Profits

Tampa Bay vs Baltimore
Pick: Tampa Bay +110

The Baltimore Orioles recovered from being swept by the Cubs by taking the first two games vs. the Tampa Bay Rays, but this matchup could produce the first Rays’ win of this series. Drew Smyly came to Tampa in the David Price trade and has been great in a Rays’ uniform, going 2-1 with a 1.55 ERA, 0.76 WHIP and a fine ratio of 23 strikeouts vs. six walks in 29 innings over four starts. He also pitched well in his only 2014 start vs. Baltimore while with Detroit, allowing one run on five hits is six innings. Orioles’ starter Kevin Gausman has allowed three earned runs or less in five straight starts, but he went more than six innings just once and allowed exactly three earned runs four times, resulting in only a 4.03 ERA in those outings. The Rays are 19-7 in their last 26 games on grass.

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SPORTS WAGERS

PITTSBURGH +114 over St. Louis

Adam Wainwright was whacked in the All-Star game and since then his 30% line-drive rate is the highest mark in the majors among pitchers with six or more starts. Wainwright's strikeout rate is also trending the wrong way. Over his last 39 frames, he's only whiffed 26 batters while walking 13. That's supported by a low 6% swing and miss rate over his last six starts in which he's posted a 4.35 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. In fact, all of Wainwright's skills have been nothing more than mediocre since the All-Star game but his overall ERA of 2.52 has this labouring pitcher well overpriced. Wainwright's xERA since the break is sitting at 5.17, which is 2½ runs higher than his actual ERA. Furthermore, current Pirates have 63 hits (7 jacks) in 221 career AB's against Wainwright for a combined BA of .285. Adam Wainwright may be the most overvalued starter in the league right now and absolutely does not warrant this billing in Pittsburgh.

Jeff Locke emerged from seemingly nowhere last year, making the NL All-Star team and helping the Bucs to the post season. But his second-half ERA was over 5.00 compared with a 2.06 in the first half, leading to the conclusion his early success was a fluke. Yet, he's at least holding his own after an oblique injury shelved him early in 2014. Unlike the Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde show last year, Locke has pitched true to his skills this season: His control has been elite and he's walking about one-third of the hitters per game as he did a year ago. Locke doesn't miss a lot of bats, but he's maintained a good command rate thanks to his pinpoint control. Pitching to contact is more his game and it's working with his nice 51% groundball tilt. In his last start, Locke went into Milwaukee and two-hit the Brewers in 6 innings. In 15 starts, he has lost just three games. Still only 25, Locke isn't the power arm that will seize headlines, and pitching in Pittsburgh keeps him further under the radar. The control gains are of such magnitude and beyond even his best seasons in the minor leagues, so it warrants skepticism. But even if his walks rise a little and Locke lacks the prospect status and upside of other names, he at least merits some consideration as a dog in his own barn and that's precisely how we'll proceed, even with Andrew McCutcheon likely sitting this one out.


N.Y. METS +119 over Atlanta

It didn't take long Julio Teheran to live up to his lofty prospect status. He posted a 3.20 ERA in 2013—his first full MLB season and followed it up with an elite 1.83 ERA and 0.93 WHIP through 12 starts in 2014. However, things have taken a turn for the worst for Teheran and fatigue is likely the cause. Teheran threw 142 innings in his first season above A-Ball back in 2010. In 2011 and 2012 he split time between the minors (Triple-A Gwinnett) and the majors throwing a combined 163 frames in 2011 and 137 innings in 2012. In his first full season at the MLB level last year, he threw 185.2 innings. This year with 4½ weeks left in the season, Teheran has already thrown 182.2 innings and will shatter his own record for innings pitched in a season. Signs of fatigue include less strikeouts, more walks and pitching up in the zone rather than low, which is reflected in a pitchers groundball/fly-ball split. In Teheran's case, it's all of the above that is suffering. Teheran's 29%/50% groundball/fly-ball split over his last six starts is an alarming number that should not be ignored. His 7% swing and miss rate over those six starts is way down from his 10% swing and miss rate up to that point this season. Furthermore, Teheran's numbers on the road (4.27 ERA, 1.28 WHIP) have not come close to matching his home numbers. Both his surface stats and skills are much worse on the road and now it appears as though fatigue is settling in. Teheran's current form combined with Atlanta's poor road offense make the Braves too big risk as the chalk.

Zack Wheeler cannot be this big a dog at home against a weak hitting visitor. Wheeler has been hot in the second half, with a 2.20 ERA in eight July and August starts. Four of those starts came at home, and three of them were of the pure quality variety. Wheeler has allowed more than 2 earned runs only once during his last eight starts. Wheeler's 53%/19%/28% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile on the year is one of the best in the game. Hitters cannot make hard contact off of Wheeler's stuff consistently. The only skill that is a concern is Wheeler's control or lack thereof. He's already walked 65 batters in 153 innings but his stuff is so nasty that it doesn't hurt him as much as it would others. If he can find the strike zone with more regularity, Wheeler will become one of MLB's most dominant starters. From July 6 to July 30, he walked two batters or less in five straight starts and the Mets won four of those five starts while outscoring the opposition 30-11. With his combination of strikeouts (8.0+ K's/9 in each month) and groundballs (57%+ GB% in three months and 53% overall), Wheeler has the goods to become a rotation anchor and is a great value bet anytime he's a pooch against an opposing starter that is not superior to him. That applies here.

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Matt Fargo

New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers    
Play: New York Yankees +175

The Yankees had won five straight games prior to last night as they lost the opener of this series 5-2. They are 3.5 games behind Seattle for the second Wild Card spot in the American League so they can ill afford any sort of losing streak. Shane Greene has been an awesome addition to the rotation as he has a 3.17 ERA in eight starts with the Yankees going 6-2 in those games. This includes a 2.59 ERA in four road starts and New York is a perfect 4-0 in those games. The Tigers are 1-5 in their last six games against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Detroit has now won three straight games to keep pace with Kansas City in the American League Central as it is a game and a half back. The Tigers are also a half-game behind Seattle in the Wild Card chase so these games are equally big. While they send David Price to the hill tonight, the line is telling us this is a mismatch but that is far from the case. He has been solid since coming over from Tampa Bay as he has three quality outings in his four starts but the Tigers are just 2-2 in those games so there has been no dominance. He has a 3.58 ERA in four starts against the Yankees this year, again, no dominance. The Yankees are 13-6 in their last 19 road games against left-handed starters.

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Ross Benjamin

Tampa Bay @ Baltimore
Play: Tampa Bay +108

The Rays starter Drew Smyly enters tonight in terrific form over his last 3-starts posting a microscopic 0.76 ERA, a 0.55 WHIP, and compiling a better than 4:1 strikeout to walk ratio. Despite losing 3 of their last 4 on the road, the Rays have still gone a stellar 24-10 in their last 34 away games. The Orioles starter Kevin Gausman has made 3 career starts versus the Rays which have all occurred since 2013, and he posted a large 7.05 ERA in those outings.

Any road team that's +125 to -125 on the money line which lost 3 of the last 4, and has a winning percentage of .460 to .490, versus an opponent with a winning record, has gone 61-31 (66.3%) during the past 3-seasons.

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Jimmy Boyd

Toronto Blue Jays -132

It's been an awful stretch of baseball for the Blue Jays of late, but I'm confident they will snap out of their slump with a win tonight against the Red Sox. Toronto will send out Marcus Stroman, who despite a bad couple outings, still comes in with a 3.47 ERA and 1.179 WHIP over 15 starts. I look for Stroman to bounce back in a big way at home, where he's got a 2.23 ERA and 0.956 WHIP over 9 starts. Stroman is also a perfect 2-0 with a 0.64 ERA and 0.786 WHIP over 2 career starts versus the Red Sox. Both of which came this season.

Boston will counter with Joe Kelly, who has a 5.40 ERA and 1.667 WHIP over his last 3 starts and a mere 4.89 ERA and 1.571 WHIP over 7 road starts. Kelly is only averaging 5 innings per start, so there figures to be plenty of chances for Toronto to take advantage of the Red Sox middle-relief.

There's also a strong system telling us to fade Boston. Underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 with a starting pitcher whose gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start, playing on Wednesday are just 56-144 over the last 5 seasons. That's a 72% system in favor of the Blue Jays.

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Steve Janus

Washington Nationals -1.5 +108

After dropping the first two games of the series, I look for the Nationals to rebound in a big way tonight. Coming into this series Washington had won 12 of 13, which included a 10-game winning streak. I'm taking the Nationals to win here by at least 2 runs, as they have a big edge on the mound. Washington will start Doug Fister, who is 12-4 with a 2.38 ERA and 1.067 WHIP over 19 starts and has been even stronger of late with a 1.80 ERA and 1.050 WHIP over his last 3. The Phillies on the other hand will send out the struggling Kyle Kendrick, who has a 6.61 ERA and 1.776 WHIP over his last 3.

It's also worth noting how each starter has performed in this series. Fister has a 1.64 ERA and 0.727 WHIP over 3 career starts against the Phillies and Kendrick has a 5.15 ERA and 1.435 WHIP over 23 career starts against the Nationals.

Key Trends - Phillies are 3-10 in their last 13 against the run line after a win over a division rival by 1 run and 2-8 in Kendrick's last 10 starts after 2 or more consecutive wins. Fister on the other hand is 14-6 in his last 20 starts against the run line after 2 or more consecutive losses.

System - Road favorites against a 1.5 run line who are revenging 2 straight losses vs opponent as a road favorite, a good team (54% to 62%) playing a team with a losing record are 67-36 (65%) since 1997.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, August 27

Will Rogers

New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers    
Play: Detroit Tigers -175

The Tigers won the opener last night, and they are still three games clear of the Yankees in the AL Wild Card race. They look to widen the gap with another win here in Game 2 at Comerica Park.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - The Yankees will hand the ball to Shane Greene (3-1, 3.17 ERA) who's having an impressive rookie season but has started to take some heat lately. The 25 year old surrendered three runs on nine hits over five innings in a ND versus the White Sox his last time out. Greene has been much better in day games, and is posting a 4.76 ERA over four outings under the lights. Detroit will counter with David Price (12-9, 3.00 ERA) , who's finally found his feet at his new club after a somewhat slow start. The lefty has allowed only two runs, one earned, on four hits with 16 strike outs over 16 innings in his last two starts.

2. Trends - The Yankees have only won one of the last five meetings in Detroit, and the Tigers have won all of their last four games as a favorite.

3. X-factor - J.D Martinez was 3-for-4 in last night's opener, and is 8-for-13 in his last three games. He's hitting .312 with 17 home runs for the season.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, August 27

Jesse Schule

Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds    
Play: Cincinnati Reds -153

The Reds were blanked by Travis Wood and the Cubs last night, but I like their chances of bouncing back tonight with Mat Latos on the hill.

Latos (4-3, 2.99 ERA) is winless in his last three starts, but unbeaten in his last five. In other words, he's pitched well, but hasn't always gotten the run support. He held the Cubs to one run on five hits over seven innings, winning the only previous meeting this season. He's owned the Cubs throughout his career, with a record of 4-0 and a 1.98 ERA in six starts over the last three seasons.

The Cubbies hand the ball to Jacob Turner, who makes his first start for Chicago since coming over from Miami. He's appeared twice out of the bullpen, surrendering just one run on three hits over 4 1/3 innings for Chicago. His last start for the Fish just so happens to have come against Cincy, and he was rocked for five runs on nine hits over just four innings. Jay Bruce, Todd Frazier and Billy Hamilton all had hits in that game, and the trio has combined to go 7-for-15 lifetime versus the right-hander.

The Cubs have been playing well lately, but it's a tough ask to overcome such a mismatch on the mound.


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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, August 27

BONES BEST BETS

DODGERS -1.5 -125

Kershaw against the Diamondbacks, what is not to love here? The Dodgers are an incredible 41-26 away from LA while the Diamondbacks are a lousy 27-41 at home this season. The Dodgers are 17-4 in games Kershaw starts this season. LA is also red hot having won 5 of 7 with 4 of those wins coming by 2+ runs. The Diamondbacks have dropped 8 of their last 10. Miley owns a 6.20 ERA at home on the season and is 0-3 against these Dodgers on the year (all home starts) losing 7-0, 8-5, and 3-1.

RED SOX ML +123

The Blue Jays are a disaster and Marcus Stroman has hit a wall. Plenty of reason here to like Boston at big plus money. The Red Sox have taken the first two games of this series by a combined score of 15-10. Stroman or the Jays has allowed 5+ runs in 3 of his past 4 starts. Joe Kelly had one rough start since coming over from St. Louis but otherwise has had outings of 0, 2, and 1 inning.

ML PARLAY (INDIANS + DODGERS + NATIONALS) +269

Looking to cash a joint parlay here – and it’s a big one!

The Indians have Kluber on the mound who has been nothing short of spectacular this season. Kluber owns a 1.08 WHIP and a 2.46 ERA, strong numbers. Noesi for the White Sox has struggled this season with a WHIP of 1.41 and an ERA of 4.86 – including a home ERA of 5! Chicago has dropped 7 straight contests with 5 of those losses coming by 2+ runs.

Doug Fister has been the Ace this year for the Nationals owning a 1.07 WHIP and a 2.38 ERA. Washington is 14-5 in games Fister starts and have won 7 of their past 10 baseball games. Kendrick for the Phillies has been getting torched of late (1.78 WHIP, 6.61 ERA L3 Starts) and has struggled all season (1.38 WHIP, 4.93 ERA).

TIGERS -1 -130

Coming off an easy win Tuesday with Porcello on the mound, we see another similar result lining up here tonight with David Price toeing the rubber. Since being traded to Detroit Price has allowed 17 hits and eight earned runs while striking out 32 over 30.2 innings for a 1-1 record and a 2.35 ERA. He would be 2-0 had he not lost his last outing in which he tossed a complete game 1 hit gem. Yankees counter with Shane Greene who has been solid this season but does not hold the pedigree of Price, especially with this being a home game for the Tigers. Detroit is 7-2 in their last nine home games.

CARDINALS ML -119

Wainwright becomes the first 16 game winner in the MLB today. The Cards are 18-8 when Wainwright takes the mound this year. The Cards have won 5 of the last 7 meetings with the Pirates and Wainwright shut out the Pirates last time he faced them. He has also had better road numbers than home numbers this year.

CUBS ML +155

The Reds are playing terrible baseball – and until they prove otherwise we are going to ride huge plus money against them. They should not be -165 against any team in the bigs right now. Additionally the Cubs have won 4 straight and 7 of 9

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