Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, August 22

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, August 22

Dominic Brando

Astros / Indians Over 8.5

Our top MLB Total on the Friday card comes from Cleveland (our model sets this number going over 10). Peacock and Carrasco will yield plenty of opportunities for both teams (combined ERA over 9.5 with a total record of 5-10 on the season). Houston enters off an afternoon road shutout at Yankee Stadium, but their bats will come back alive tonight against a SP that has very little business being on a MLB roster (Astros 32 runs in previous five games before yesterday’s gem by Brandon McCarthy). Similar situation for the Tribe, who enter tonight off a silent afternoon road loss (1 run yesterday) after having scored 12 runs in the previous two games. BATS AWAKEN ON BOTH SIDES TONIGHT as we take advantage of a weak 8.5 number and put our investment on the over!

LA Dodgers -130

WE LOVE the Dodgers in this spot tonight, entering with momentum after the huge Josh Turner HR that saved the night B8 last night vs SD. Expect LA to respond tonight as the bright lights of NYC come to visit. The Mets are just 3-6 in their last nine games and typically struggle on the West Coast including 0-4 L4 at Dodger Stadium. The Dodgers are 13-3 against left-handed pitchers and catch Jonathon Niese at an opportune time tonight (entering 2-5 in his last seven starts as a road underdog and just 1-7 on the road against .500 or better teams). The Dodgers have won six of seven games against the Mets and it continues tonight. VALUE at -130, jump on the better team in a perfect spot!

Padres +105

We isolate the Padres as our top underdog on the Friday MLB Card! We catch a very live dog coming into the desert tonight, swinging their best bats of the season (and the best offense in the National League since the ASB. SD is the top hitting team in the NL and they are third in MLB in batting average (.267) during that time. Before getting their hearts broken last night vs Clayton Kershaw, the Pads had 68 hits and 35 runs in their previous 7 games! On the flip side, offense has disappeared for the DBacks, who have hit only .239 since the ASB (scoring ONLY 14 RUNS/45 HITS OVER THEIR LAST 7 GAMES). Paul Goldschmidt is out for the year, and the offense has responded in miserable fashion - we expect that to continue tonight! DBacks SP Josh Collimenter enters tonight with a 6.46 ERA in his last 3 starts. San Diego is 8-3 vs sub .500 teams since the ASB and enters off a very feisty series at Dodger Stadium. We move with complete confidence on San Diego as our top Friday Dog!

Montreal +8

Do not let the record differential in tonight’s game deceive you. Winnipeg escaped with a 34-33 victory at Montreal early this season, but the Blue Bombers were out gained by 105 yards. Winnipeg is also only 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 home games. Our model sets this number in the 3.5-4 range, and we will JUMP on what we judge to be a clear overlay/value spot with a live dog in Montreal. Be sure to play at +8 on the half point buy if necessary. We expect a continued run of success with our CFL plays. Take the points and expect the Alouettes to be more than ready for this one tonight!

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, August 22

Sam Martin

San Francisco Giants at Washington Nationals
Prediction: Washington Nationals

Good pitching matchup tonight with Tim Hudson taking on Doug Fister, and we expect Fister and the Nats to get the better of the visiting Giants tonight. Not only has Fister been simply awesome here at home, but the Nationals are on a momentum and confidence driven winning streak that has them feeling invincible at the moment with everything falling their way over the course of their current ten-game winning streak.

Seven of those ten wins have come by a single run, but we think they might take this one by a bit more with Fister going. The Nationals starter has won seven of his eight team starts here at home on the season having a ridiculous 1.76 ERA in the process. And he's only getting stronger as the season goes on, going at least seven innings while allowing exactly zero earned runs in each of his last three starts. Nothing against Hudson, but he can't stack up to those numbers statistically and we look for Washington's magic run to continue at least one more game!

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, August 22

Jack Jones

Pittsburgh Pirates +133

The Pittsburgh Pirates (65-62) are just 2.5 games back of the Giants for the final wild card spot in the National League.  They had lost seven in a row before finally putting an end to that streak with a 3-2 victory over the Braves on Wednesday.  I look for them to now starting a winning streak today by taking down the Milwaukee Brewers at an excellent price.

Jeff Locke is quietly having a solid season for the Pirates on the mound.  The left-hander has gone 4-3 with a 3.73 ERA and 1.222 WHIP over 14 starts this season.  He has dominated the Brewers in two of his last three starts against them.  He gave up one earned run over seven innings on June 8th in his only start against them this year.  He is 1-1 with a 2.89 ERA in his last three starts against Milwaukee overall.

Yovani Gallardo is a guy that consistently gets too much respect from oddsmakers.  After all, the Brewers have gone just 12-13 in his 25 starts this season.  He has posted solid numbers with a 3.32 ERA and 1.215 WHIP in those starts, but he has been at his worst at home, going 2-4 with a 4.06 ERA and 1.326 WHIP in 13 starts inside Miller Park.

The Pirates are 4-1 in Locke's last five starts as an underdog.  Pittsburgh is 8-3 in Locke's last 11 starts with a total set of 7.0-8.5.  The Brewers are 0-5 in Gallardo's last five home starts.  Milwaukee is 3-7 in Gallardo's last 10 starts overall.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, August 22

Jack Jones

Pittsburgh Pirates +133

The Pittsburgh Pirates (65-62) are just 2.5 games back of the Giants for the final wild card spot in the National League.  They had lost seven in a row before finally putting an end to that streak with a 3-2 victory over the Braves on Wednesday.  I look for them to now starting a winning streak today by taking down the Milwaukee Brewers at an excellent price.

Jeff Locke is quietly having a solid season for the Pirates on the mound.  The left-hander has gone 4-3 with a 3.73 ERA and 1.222 WHIP over 14 starts this season.  He has dominated the Brewers in two of his last three starts against them.  He gave up one earned run over seven innings on June 8th in his only start against them this year.  He is 1-1 with a 2.89 ERA in his last three starts against Milwaukee overall.

Yovani Gallardo is a guy that consistently gets too much respect from oddsmakers.  After all, the Brewers have gone just 12-13 in his 25 starts this season.  He has posted solid numbers with a 3.32 ERA and 1.215 WHIP in those starts, but he has been at his worst at home, going 2-4 with a 4.06 ERA and 1.326 WHIP in 13 starts inside Miller Park.

The Pirates are 4-1 in Locke's last five starts as an underdog.  Pittsburgh is 8-3 in Locke's last 11 starts with a total set of 7.0-8.5.  The Brewers are 0-5 in Gallardo's last five home starts.  Milwaukee is 3-7 in Gallardo's last 10 starts overall.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, August 22

Mike Lundin

Cardinals vs. Phillies
Play: Over 7½

The Cardinals and the Phillies are tied at 2-2 in the season series coming into the opener of a three game set at Citizens Bank Park tonight. I think we'll see a game with plenty of runs as two struggling hurlers will take the hill.

The Cardinal's Shelby Miller (8-9, 4.25 ERA) has been roughed up pretty bad in his last two outings, surrendering nine runs on 12 hits over 11 innings. He has tossed 6 2/3 innings versus the Phillies already this season, conceding four runs on seven hits with three walks. He's posting a 4.41 ERA over 12 starts on the road.

The Phillies are going with Kyle Kendrick (5-11, 4.90 ERA) who's also been hit hard lately. The 29 year old right-hander has allowed 10 runs on 15 hits over 10 innings in his last two starts. He's started one game versus the Cardinals this season, giving up five runs on eight hits over six innings.

All of the Cardinals last five games has gone over the total, and so has eight of Kendrick's last nine starts as well.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, August 22

Michael Alexander

Seattle Mariners vs. Boston Red Sox
Play: Seattle Mariners -175

Hernandez was hit in the hip with a comebacker at Detroit on Saturday and left after five innings, ending a string of 16 straight starts with at least seven innings pitched and two or fewer earned runs allowed. The Cy Young frontrunner, who yielded two runs to the Tigers and suffered the loss, has issued a total of three walks in his last five starts. Hernandez has always had success against Boston and owns an 8-2 record with a 2.97 ERA in 15 career starts against the Red Sox.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, August 22

SPORTS WAGERS

Montreal +7½ & (+255) over WINNIPEG

We’re going to split this up and play a half unit on the Alouettes to win outright and 2.5 units on them to cover the number. As bad as the Als have been with just one win in seven games, they’re getting closer and one can just sense that they’re on the verge of a big game and a big win. That probably should’ve happened last week in Saskatchewan when they gave the Riders a big scare as 13-point dogs. That was the game Alex Brink took over from Troy Smith and went 19 for 31 for 187 yards in poor conditions. At least Brink moved the chains and he now has that full game under his belt. Montreal’s defense looks in fine shape and they still have one of the best offensive weapons in the league in Brandon Whitaker. Whitaker figures to get a ton of work against the Bombers soft defense. Overall, the Als have played consecutive games against B.C., Toronto, Edmonton and Saskatchewan and they take a step down here when facing a team that is very beatable right now. In fact, with Troy Smith at QB, Montreal scored 33 points against the Bombers back on July 11 but Winnipeg pulled a rabbit out of its hat and scored in the final seconds to win it, 34-33. That was probably the game we should have realized that Winnipeg could be a team in trouble.

The Bombers were crushed in Toronto last game while being outgained by almost 200 yards and surrendering nearly 500 yards of total offense. Over their past two games, Winnipeg has been outgained on the ground by a disturbing 250 yards. Drew Willy is not getting better each week. In fact, he’s getting worse. Willy is under constant pressure and as a result, he’s throwing the rock up for grabs. Winnipeg’s overall defense, pass protection and offense are all headed in the wrong direction, which is a poor recipe for spotting points. Winnipeg is just 2-2 at home and in Week 2 they were just a 4-point favorite over Ottawa. In Week 4 at Invesco Field, the Bombers were a 2-point choice over Edmonton and were buried by 23 points. Incredibly, the last time that Winnipeg was favored by 7 points or more was way back in October of 2011 when they were an 8-point favorite over the Argonauts and lost outright, 27-22. In 18 games last season, the Bombers were never favored. Winnipeg is not a team to be spotting significant points with. Montreal’s stock is still low after posting a 1-6 record to this point and because of its inability to score points. However, The Als are actually improving while the Bombers are regressing badly but this number does not reflect that. We’re calling the upset.

Pass NFL

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, August 22

SPORTS WAGERS

CLEVELAND -1½ +114 over Houston

Brad Peacock has been just plain awful over the past month, with a 10.50 ERA in his past four starts. A 21% hr/f rate indicates some bad luck but he's contributed plenty to his own undoing with a BB/K split of 12/14 over his last 18 innings covering four starts. That high hr/f is also the result of a high fly-ball rate and that’s what you often get with fly-ball pitchers. The Indians .731 home OPS ranks 4th in the AL and it shows that they have the firepower to ruffle Peacock's feathers in this outing. We also love the fact that the Astros are coming off a four-game set in New York and while playing the Yankees isn’t what it used to be, playing in New York is still exciting, especially for young teams like the Astros.

Meanwhile, Carlos Carrasco has made just six starts this season. Carrasco opened the season in the rotation with disastrous results, allowing 17 runs in 22 innings. He did not make it past the sixth inning in any of his first four starts. A subsequent demotion to the pen straightened him out, where in 26 relief appearances covering 43 innings, Carrasco thrived with 39 K’s, 9 BB and a 2.30 ERA. In two starts since being reinserted into the rotation, Carrasco surrendered five hits and zero runs in 12 innings combined against the Yanks and Baltimore. He didn’t walk a single batter while striking out nine. He also posted an elite 55% groundball rate, an elite 13% swing and miss rate and an elite 14% line-drive rate. Carrasco has nasty stuff and now his confidence at this level has never been higher. Everything points to an easy victory by the Tribe and that’s how we’ll play it.


N.Y. Mets +120 over LOS ANGELES

Diagnosed with a partially torn rotator cuff last season, Jonathan Niese took six weeks off to rest/rehab and then he returned in the second half to put together a career-best run. Niese could be on the same path this year, as he returned from the DL in late July and he’s once again showing signs of getting stronger. Niese has struck out 12 batters over his last two starts, covering 13 innings. Niese’s solid command, strong groundball tilt and consistent history presents potential reward and this year his groundball rate is one of the best in the business at 55%. He’ll now face a Dodgers team that struggles against LHP, with their .683 OPS 12th in the NL.

Forget Niese for a second because this one is more about fading Dan Haren again. We faded him last weekend against Milwaukee and he didn’t make it past three innings after allowing six hits and five runs. It took Haren 74 pitches to get nine outs and he also walked three batters. Had Hyun-Jin Ryu not got injured, Haren would not be in the rotation. The Dodgers were so concerned about his ineffectiveness that they went out and traded for Kevin Correia, a move the Twinkies are still celebrating over. Haren’s groundball/line-drive/fly-ball split of 27%/27%/46% is enough to scare away even the biggest optimists. His swing and miss rate has been in decline for three straight years and it’s not getting any better. He’s been tagged for 10 jacks at Dodger Stadium in just 63 frames and as the innings pile up that number is in more danger. Dan Haren has one foot in the gutter and should the Dodger make the playoffs, you won’t see him anywhere near the mound. The Dodgers are praying he gives them five innings of decent service tonight but even they know that’s a stretch. Haren has lost it and while anything is possible in one game, he’s a huge risk as the chalk.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, August 22

Rocketman

Pittsburgh vs Milwaukee
Pick: Milwaukee -142

The Pittsburgh Pirates take on the Brewers in Milwaukee on Friday night.  Pittsburgh is 65-62 overall this year while Milwaukee comes in with a 71-56 overall record on the season.  Pittsburgh has now lost 7 of their last 8 games overall while Milwaukee has won 5 of their past 6 games overall.  Pittsburgh is scoring 3.3 runs per game their past 7 games overlal where they have a team batting average of only .223.  Pittsburgh is allowing 5.7 runs per game their past 7 games overall.  Yovani Gallardo gets the start for the Brewers where he is 8-6 with a 3.32 ERA overall this year and 2-1 with a 2.84 ERA his last 3 starts.  Milwaukee has won 10 of 13 overall meetings against Pittsburgh this year including 5-1 at home.  Gallardo is 12-3 with a 2.43 ERA in his 23 starts against Pittsburgh in his career.  We'll recommend a small play on Milwaukee tonight. 


Rocky Atkinson's Featured Package

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, August 22

Nelly

Tampa Bay Rays + over Toronto Blue Jays

The Rays have won 21 of the last 27 road games and this is a big series for Tampa Bay as they try to move up in the AL East, still sitting just behind Toronto. Drew Smyly was having a solid season for Detroit before he was shipped to the Rays in the deal for David Price. With less pressure on him in Tampa, Smyly has flourished with three strong starts since joining the team, allowing a total of five runs in 20 innings while striking out 19. Marcus Stroman has enjoyed an encouraging rookie season for the Blue Jays but it has come with great inconsistency. In three of his last eight starts he has a scoreless performance of seven innings but he has allowed five or more runs in a start of four or fewer innings three times in that span. Stroman owns good numbers at home but the Blue Jays continue to sink with losses in six of the last eight games and the Rays have posted better recent scoring numbers that Toronto even with yesterday's one-hit win. Tampa Bay owns the stronger bullpen and the Rays have as many road wins as the Jays have home wins this season.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, August 22

Andrew Lange

San Diego at Arizona
Play: Over 8.5

I don't know how it is possible but Josh Collmenter's velocity continues to trend in the wrong direction. He's almost like a knuckballer where velocity is secondary to movement and location but the proof is in the pudding as Collmenter has allowed 17 earned runs over his last four starts. Kirk Gibson has his concerns about whether or not the funky right-hander is breaking down. Bottom line is if Gibson is spotting something, then we should probably take notice. San Diego's Odrisamer Despaigne burst onto the scene with a handful of stellar starts but like Collmenter, he isn't fooling many hitters these days. He's fanned 37 batters in 60.1 innings and isn't built for much beyond pitching at night in Petco Park. The concern here is obviously two suspect offenses with multiple key bats on the bench. I'l however put my faith in the fact that there will be a lot of balls put in play tonight and both bullpens grade out as below average (the Padres much different with Huston Street gone and Joaquin Benoit dealing with shoulder problems). The price is right to step in with a play on the over.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, August 22

Sports Atari

Seattle Mariners -1 -142

After only a single hit, the Red Sox turn around and face arguably the best arm in the AL. They aren’t ready for this. 0-5 at home and they welcome a rested Mariners squad that is only half a game behind the 2nd wild card spot.

Seattle has won 11 of 15 and 14 of 19 when King Felix starts. Hernandez is 5-2 with a 1.75 ERA in 10 recent starts and 13-4, 1.99 ERA overall. The Mariners lead the league in ERA at 2.93.

Joe Kelly is mismatched heavily here going up against a proven ace. Kelly gave up 7 runs, 6 walks in 4 innings on Sunday to Houston.  He has a 0-1, 5.29 ERA in his last 3 starts and 2-3, 4.67 ERA overall this season.

What can I say here? The Mariners are priced high for a big reason. They’re 8-3 in their last 11 as a favorite and they can’t afford to lose easy, mismatched games like this. This is not a good board today in the MLB and we should only be betting on the best of the best games.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, August 22

Bob Balfe

New England Patriots -6

I think the Panthers are in trouble this year. I do not think they will be able to put up the points needed to win a lot of football games this year. The Patriots for the first time in many years actually have to play with heart in the preseason because some of their players are a work in progress. Brady will prove tonight he is still and elite QB in this league. Take the Patriots.

New York Jets -1

I don't see the Giants winning many games if this running game does not get going. Someone on this team is going to have to step up when it comes to carrying the ball. The Jets have done some good things and the QB competition is healthy for all involved. This should be a good one, but I like the depth of the Jets a bit more. Take the Jets.

Detroit Lions -3

I like what Jacksonville has done. They will complete this year, but they need to get past putting up 3's on the board and more 7's or they will never be a playoff team. Detroit has a great passing team and on this surface they should put up a few points. This system has been in place for sometime and i expect them to be too much at home. Take the Lions

Green Bay Packers -7

The Raiders are again a work in progress with a new starting QB. Their second stringer wont play tonight so it will be a 3rd stringer playing with some first and second stringers. Green Bay is a tough place to play even if its a preseason game. Green Bay has a great offense and need to get better on defense. I think they give their fans something to be hopeful for tonight against a team that is still being molded. Take the the Packers.

Chicago Bears +7

Size is going to be a big advantage this year with the way these refs are calling the games. Smaller corners won't be able to touch the receiver at all so its going to be tough to defend these guys. Chicago has monster players and are one of the few teams that won't be scared of this Seattle Defense. Look for the Seahawks to brush through this game without injury. What do they have to prove to anyone? Take the Bears.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, August 22

Tony Stoffo

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Detroit Lions
Play: Jacksonville Jaguars +3.5

The Public all on the Lions here with 65% of all bets placed - yet the odds makers have already had to move this line a full 1 1/2 points off the opener in the Jaguars favor - as some blocks of Sharp money has landed on Jacksonville in this spot. So let's follow the money and release a play on the underdog Jaguars tonight.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, August 22

BONES BEST BETS

NATIONALS -1 -103

10 in a row for Washington have to keep riding them while they are red hot. The Nationals are an incredible 14-4 in Fister’s starts this season, and he has allowed 0 ER in each of his past 3 starts (0.89 WHIP). Hudson has struggled for the Giants of late and owns a 6 ERA and a 1.73 WHIP over his last 3 starts.

RED SOX TT UNDER 3 -125

Just once since June 13th have the Mariners allowed more than 4 runs when King Felix takes the hill. The Red Sox offense has been non-existant of late scoring just 1.8 runs per game over their past 5 – not a good stat heading up against King Felix.

ANGELS ML +147

We’ve been riding these guys for awhile now and they continue to cash in. The Athletics Sonny Gray has had 3 consecutive starts not up to his standards as he is 0-3 over this stretch with a 6.48 ERA and owns an extremely high 1.92 WHIP. Angels starter, Hector Santiago has 2 starts against these A’s this season where he has pitched a total of 13 innings allowing just 1 run.

BREWERS ML -143

The Pirates are 11 games below .500 on the road and have lost 7 of 8 overall. The Brewers have been playing great baseball winning 5 of their last 6. Gallardo has given up 1 earned run or less in 4 of his last 5 starts. Locke has given up 4 runs or more in 3 of his last 5 starts. He has also struggled on the road with a 1.42 WHIP. The Brewers have also won 7 of the last 9 meetings this year.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, August 22

Jeffrey James   

Carolina Panthers +5.5

Look for Cam Newton to get more playing time here than Tom Brady which will help the Panthers cause a ton. The Patriots have been 0-6 ATS in game 3 of the pre-season since coach Bill knows what he has in his QB and offense so he does not need them to play as much as other teams. Carolina is 6-1 ATS in the pre-season against AFC teams while New England is 4-8 against NFC teams.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, August 22

Harry Bondi

SEATTLE (-7) over Chicago

The Seahawks have been money in the pre-season under Pete Carroll and we have used them often, including in this space last week when they crushed San Diego 41-17. Seattle is 11-2 ATS during Carrol's reign and we see non reason to expect anything but another blowout tonight with both squads starters expected to play into the third quarter. Seattle superior depth will insure the cover in the fourth quarter.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, August 22

OC Dooley

Twins +100

At most offshore outlets Minnesota actually opened as a home favorite but a this afternoon progresses we have seen a shift in the money-line towards Detroit who is one-and-half games out in the American League Central divisional chase.  One of the keys to this pick surrounds the fact that Detroit is coming off the worst possible defeat as newly acquired David Price just tossed a ONE HIT gem on the road against his former team (Tampa) and yet managed to lose by a 1-0 final score.  It is very difficult to shake off a defeat of that magnitude and tonight the Tigers have to deal with Tommy Milone who started the season in an Oakland uniform.  In what turned out to be his final Athletics start before being traded eventually to the Twins, Milone also tossed a ONE HIT gem and is certainly capable of a quality outing.  Admittedly Milone did struggle in his most recent start by he had problems properly gripping the baseball on a RAINY night.  I have mentioned several times on the premium service spanning the past couple of weeks that even though Minnesota is in last-place, they actually ENHANCED their roster by getting a couple of veterans back from lengthy stays on the disabled list.  One of those veterans is the face of the franchise Joe Mauer who has hit safely in 20 of the past 21 games where he has been healthy enough to take the field. Infielder Brian Dozier just became a member of the 20-20 club (20 homers, 20 stolen bases) which is something the Twins franchise has not seen in an entire DECADE.  Underdog Minnesota does have an edge this evening on the mound as Tommy Milone has already had the pressure of starting a postseason game. On the flipside Detroit’s Robbie Ray has made only 5 starts at the major league level

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, August 22

Anthony Michael

Chicago Bears +7

Have to love the Bears here in this spot. They are in a great trend spot here playing off of 2 SU home wins and now going on the road. That is a 46-26 ATS spot. There is also a great go against on Seattle since they are favored by more than a touchdown off of a double digit SU win. That is a 3-20 ATS trend against the Seahawks. Take this big number of points with the Bears here.

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