Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, August 20

Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, August 20

DUNKEL INDEX

MLB

Cleveland at Minnesota
The Twins look to bounce back from last night's 7-5 loss in the series opener as they host a Cleveland team that is 2-5 in T.J. House's last 7 road starts. Minnesota is the pick (+100) according to Dunkel, which has the Twins favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+100)

Game 901-902: Atlanta at Pittsburgh (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Wood) 16.155; Pittsburgh (Cole) 13.532
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 2 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-125); 7
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+105); Over

Game 903-904: Arizona at Washington (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Cahill) 15.212; Washington (Roark) 14.331
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Washington (-200); 7
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+170); Over

Game 905-906: Cincinnati at St. Louis (7:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Cueto) 15.673; St. Louis (Lynn) 16.722
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1; 6
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-120); 7
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-120); Under

Game 907-908: San Francisco at Chicago Cubs (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Peavy) 16.422; Cubs (Jackson) 13.981
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 2 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-130); No Run Total
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-130); N/A

Game 909-910: San Diego at LA Dodgers (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Stults) 13.908; LA Dodgers (Hernandez) 16.365
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 2 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-150); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-150); Over

Game 911-912: Houston at NY Yankees (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Feldman) 16.498; NY Yankees (Pineda) 15.552
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1; 9
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-200); 8
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+170); Over

Game 913-914: Detroit at Tampa Bay (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Porcello) 15.767; Tampa Bay (Odorizzi) 17.113
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-125); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-125); Under

Game 915-916: LA Angels at Boston (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Richards) 14.980; Boston (Buchholz) 16.412
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-145); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (+125); Under

Game 917-918: Cleveland at Minnesota (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (House) 15.476; Minnesota (Nolasco) 16.886
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-120); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+100); Under

Game 919-920: Baltimore at Chicago White Sox (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Chen) 16.725; White Sox (Noesi) 13.519
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 3; 8
Vegas Line: Baltimore (-150); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-150); Under

Game 921-922: Texas at Miami (12:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Martinez) 13.989; Miami (Eovaldi) 16.122
Dunkel Line: Miami by 2; 9
Vegas Line: Miami (-170); 8
Dunkel Pick: Miami (-170); Over

Game 923-924: Seattle at Philadelphia (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Paxton) 15.636; Philadelphia (Hamels) 17.233
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-130); 7
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-130); Over

Game 925-926: Toronto at Milwaukee (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Dickey) 13.940; Milwaukee (Nelson) 17.001
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 3; 9
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-140); 8
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-140); Over

Game 927-928: NY Mets at Oakland (3:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Wheeler) 16.414; Oakland (Samadzija) 15.612
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Oakland (-200); 7
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+170); Over

Game 929-930: Kansas City at Colorado (8:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Duffy) 17.175; Colorado (De La Rosa) 15.007
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 2; 9
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-130); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-130); Under

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Jim Feist

Braves at Pirates
Pick: Under

Do you think these teams can score any runs? The Under is 46-20-4 in the last 70 meetings between these NL teams, including 33-17-2 under the total in the last 52 meetings in Pittsburgh. Atlanta has a bad offense, 28th in runs scored, 22nd in on base percentage and 26th in slugging. At least starter Alex Wood (3.07 ERA) is a keeper, with 120 Ks in 123 innings. The under is 15-7-3 in Wood's last 25 starts. Wood worked six solid innings, allowing two earned runs on four hits and three walks while striking out one in Friday's 7-2 win over the A's. In his follow-up to last Sunday's 12-strikeout performance, Wood only needed a single punchout to defeat the A's on Friday night. The young lefty continues to be a strong force in the Braves' rotation, as he has now surrendered just five earned runs over 26.1 innings during his last four outings. The under is 7-3-2 in the Braves last 12 games as an underdog and 9-4-2 under when they face a left-handed starter. Pittsburgh has young Gerrit Cole on the hill with a 3.78 ERA after sitting out 6 weeks. The right-hander is 3-1 over four rehab starts for Triple-A Indianapolis, owning a 2.01 ERA and 1.16 WHIP over that span. He throws best at home, with a 3.56 ERA here, and this shapes up as a 3-2 kind of game.

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Marc Lawrence

Cincinnati Reds at St Louis Cardinals
Prediction: Cincinnati Reds

Edges - Reds: Cueto 2.48 ERA last seven starts in this series, and 10-2 last twelve team starts during August, and 6-1 team starts vs N.L. Central this season. With Cueto owning a 0.91 WHIP and in strong KW form with 30 strikeouts and 7 walks his last four starts, we recommend a 1-unit play on Cincinnati.

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Ben Burns

Royals vs. Rockies
Play: Under 9½

I'm playing Kansas City and Colorado to finish UNDER the total.

Yes, I know this game is being played at Coors Field. But after scoring 10 runs in each win of Sunday's doubleheader sweep against the Reds on Sunday, Colorado was held to only four runs Tuesday.  I don't think they'll be scoring many, if any, more here against Danny Duffy.

Duffy has a 2.64 ERA and 1.10 WHIP.  While his last three starts have all gone Over, this is someone who has allowed two runs or fewer in six of his past eight starts.  He's one of those pitchers whose numbers are better than the overall record.

Kansas City has a great bullpen too. Their relievers actually have the lowest combined ERA in the American League.  They uncharacterstically gave up two runs in the bottom of the ninth yesterday.  In fact, eight of the 11 runs scored in last night's game came in the final three innings.

Remember that the Royals don't have the designated hitter at their disposal because this is a National League park. Their lineup should suffer.

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Rob Vinciletti

Baltimore Orioles vs. Chicago White Sox    
Play: Baltimore Orioles -135

The Orioles have won 8 the last 9 vs losing teams like Chicago and qualify in a solid system cashing over 85%. We want to play on certain road favorites off a road win by 5 or more runs, vs an opponent like Chicago that lost as a small home favorite while scoring 4 or less runs on 4 or less hits. Chicago has H. Noesi going an he has an 0-3 record with an 8.10 era vs Baltimore. W. Chen makes the start for Baltimore and he has a 4-0 team start record vs The Whitesox. Look for Baltimore to take another from Chicago.


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Jimmy Adams

Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins   
Play: Miami Marlins -165

The Marlins will look to win a 4th straight game against the Rangers tonight behind Nathan Eovaldi. Eovaldi hasn’t received much run support at home, getting 2 runs of support or fewer in 7 of his last 8 starts in Miami. He pitched a solid game against the Cardinals last time out, allowing 2 ER in 6 innings. Miami’s offense should have no trouble putting points on the board against the horrific Nick Martinez.

Martinez in one of the worst pitchers in baseball, going 1-8 with a 7.01 ERA over his last 12 outings. The only reason he’s still in the starting rotation is because Texas is looking to next year. Injuries have absolutely destroyed the Rangers, and they just continue to roll in with Adrian Beltre now hurt with an injured thumb. The Rangers are the worst team in baseball right now, period. They’ve scored 4 runs or fewer in 16 of their last 18 games and aren’t likely to get back on track anytime soon.

Look for Eovaldi to hone in on his breaking ball pitch tonight, as the Rangers bat just .195 in at bats that end with off speed. The Marlins take this one easily.

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Art Aronson

Los Angeles Angels vs. Boston Red Sox    
Play: Los Angeles Angels -138

The visiting Angels will send Garrett Richards (13-4, 2.53 ERA) to the bump when they try and make it three in a row versus the Red Sox. Richards picked up his 13th victory of the season on Friday, limiting the Rangers to just two runs on seven hits over 7 1/3 innings. Richards went 6 2/3 innings while allowing one earned run in his last start versus Boston. The home side counters with Clay Buchholz (5-7, 5.79 ERA) who has had his struggles this year and will be in tough against a good Angels side which is looking to clinch a playoff spot. Note that LA has won both meetings at Fenway Park this season and six of the last eight overall in this series. Boston has lost four of six games coming into today’s action and is just 29-36 at Fenway thus far; meanwhile, the Angels are a solid 33-27 away from friendly confines. Note that Mike Trout is 6 for 13 with two homers against Buchholz while Albert Pujols is 5 for 12 with a pair of doubles vs. him. I think the Angels are worth a second look in this spot.


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Hollywood Sports

Toronto at Milwaukee
Prediction: Under

Toronto (64-62) looks to rebound from their 10-1 loss to the Brewers on Tuesday -- and they have then played 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. The Blue Jays have also played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total with Dickey pitching as an underdog. Milwaukee (71-55) has played 8 of their last 10 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Furthermore, the Brewers have played 4 straight home games Under the Total with Nelson on the mound.

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DAVE COKIN

SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS AT CHICAGO CUBS
PLAY: SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS  -125

There appears to be no way to understate just how livid the Giants were with what transpired at Wrigley Field on Tuesday evening. Just in case you missed it, a 15 minute downpour led to a four hour rain delay and an eventual five inning, 2-0 Cubs win. In a nutshell, the Wrigley grounds crew screwed things up. They somehow put the tarp down wrong when it began to rain. As a result, in spite of whatever resources were available, the field remained unplayable for roughly four hours and it was finally determined the game could not resume.

Therefore the Giants end up losing the game, as there was evidently no rules that allowed for a suspension of the action. The Giants are protesting the decision, but rules experts seem to be in agreement the league will have no choice but to uphold the result. Needless to say, this isn’t sitting at all well with anyone in the Giants camp.

Over the course of a season as lengthy as this, there aren’t that many spots that one can play simply based on emotion. This game could be the exception to that rule. I have to think the Giants are going to take the field in a bad mood after what took place on Tuesday night, and my reaction is that this is one time when I want to try and ride that emotion from a wagering standpoint.

That might be good enough on its own, but I also liked the idea of backing Jake Peavy tonight, and pretty much intended to so even before that fiasco last night. Peavy has had a truly awful season. But he finally broke through and got a win in his most recent start, and that has to be a huge burden lifted for the veteran righty. I expect Peavy to pitch well tonight for the Giants, and the thought that he might have a very revved up team behind him sure can’t hurt.

The other aspect in play here is Edwin Jackson. Not that Jackson can’t take the mound and have a dominating effort, but let’s just say it’s not very likely based on his ultra-mediocre body of work. The Cubs are a woeful 8-17 when Jackson starts, and his tendency to run up big pitch counts even on his good nights means likely multi-innings for the Cubbies pen.

It’s pretty much a sweep for me on this game as I side with the Giants on the data and like them just as much with the assumed mindset resulting from the Tuesday absurdity. I don’t find the price much of a hindrance, so tonight’s call is on the Giants.

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River City Sharps

3 Units SF Giants -130

For any long term clients or followers of RCS, you know that one angle we love to play is the "auto fade" of the Cubs Edwin Jackson, especially this season! Jackson's starts have been like our own private ATM machine and we aren't changing course at this point in the game. Honestly, this appears to be an even better spot than normal tonight as Jackson and the Cubs take on Jake Peavy and the San Francisco Giants. The first game of this series may have very well left a bad taste in the mouth of the Giants as the Cubs won 2-0 in a five inning rain shortened game. The interesting thing about last night's situation was the inability of the Cubs grounds crew to effectively get the tarp in place when the rains came and it rendered the field completely unplayable. While the Cubs are out of the playoff hunt, the Giants are in the thick of the wildcard/division race and that loss really stung. Peavy has enjoyed pretty good success against the Cubs through his career, posting a 7-5 mark with a 2.78 ERA. The Cubs are 3-13 in Jackson's last 16 starts vs. teams with a winning record and the Giants are 8-2 in their last 10 road games as a favorite of between -110 and -150. We aren't bucking those trends now and think the Giants are going to be steaming from last night's questionable results.

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Sleepyj

Padres / Dodgers Over 7.5

Here is a game that has me scratching my head. First off neither pitcher here is dominating. LHP Stults can create issues against poor LHP hitting teams. That's not really the case here with the Dodgers. The Dodgers got the ball rolling last night as they got a nice 8-6 victory. They can hit Stults and give him an early exit if his location is off. I expect that to be the case tonight. San Diego has been hitting the ball very well and continues to put up runs. Last nights game was a bit of a slug fest. I expect the same game here tonight. Hernandez for the Dodgers is so due to get lit up i've been just waiting for the right spot. I really think this it. I just can't pull myself off from firing on the over here with this one. Stults on the year has a ERA of 4.64 and a record of 5-13. That tells me he is not that good. In fact i know Stults isn't that good. He will put some extra free runners on tonight as he will try to pitch around some batters and that's only going to get him into trouble. Same goes for Hernandez. Neither guy is a pitcher that can shutdown a lineup. This line is a indication that the odds makers are using some old trends. This line is wrong IMO. I thought we would see a 8 line here. I really think Hernandez will get hit up for a few long balls tonight and Stults will follow his lead or visa versa.. Hernandez is so do for a regression and to let his true colors show i can't find anyway to look at a UNDER play here. Lets back the OVER here as this one might be OVER early.

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Steve Janus

San Francisco Giants -125

This is a great spot to jump on the Giants as a small home road favorite against the Cubs. San Francisco has to feel a bit cheated after losing the opener 1-2 in rain-shortened affair that lasted the minimum of just 4.5 innings. I look for the Giants to respond in a big way tonight.

San Francisco will send out Jake Peavy, who despite his 1-8 record and 5.72 ERA on the road is a strong play against a weak Chicago offense. Peavy comes in with a lot of confidence after allowing just 1 run on 4 hits over 7 innings against the White Sox, plus he's got a dominant 2.78 ERA and 1.191 WHIP over 15 career starts against the Cubs. Chicago will counter with Edwin Jackson, who has been one of the worst starters in the league. Jackson is 6-13 with a 5.68 ERA and 1.577 WHIP over 25 starts, has a 5.40 ERA and 1.500 WHIP over his last 3 outings and a 4.07 ERA and 1.357 WHIP over 7 career starts against the Giants.

Key Trends - Jackson is 4-14 in 18 starts this season as an underdog of +110 to +150, 4-17 in his last 21 starts following a team loss and 3-13 in his last 16 against a team with a winning record. San Francisco is 8-2 in their last 10 road games as a favorite of -110 to -150 and 15-7 in their last 22 vs a team with a losing record.

System - All teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (CHICAGO CUBS) - with a team on base percentage .300 or worse on the season (NL), in August games are 45-72 (38%) against the money line over the last 5 seasons.

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Don Best Consensus

Padres at Dodgers
Pick: Under

Some strong under trends here: Head to thead the under is 13-3 in the last 16 meetings. Under is 9-2-2 in Stults' last 13 road starts. Under is 12-3-1 in Stults' last 16 starts overall. Stults has been pitching well and is 2-0, 1.80 in his last three starts. Sinkerballer Hernandez is 1-0, 2.25 in two starts for the Dodgers.

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Tony Stoffo

Arizona vs. Washington
Play: Under 7

All the early money has come in on the under in this spot between the D-Backs and Nationals with Cahill getting the start here against Roark. Cahill is 2-0, 2.61 in his last three starts. Roark is 5-1, 2.51 in his last seven starts. Umpire Trend - Under is 14-5 in last nineteen Bill Welke games.

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LT Profits

Kansas City vs Colorado
Pick: Colorado +113

The Colorado Rockies have the worst record in baseball but they could play spoiler vs. the first-place Kansas City Royals. Jorge De La Rosa has defied logic, always pitching better in the altitude of Denver than on the road and 2014 is no exception. De La Rosa is 12-8 with a 4.32 ERA and yet is 8-2 with a 3.30 ERA and 1.18 WHIP at Coors Field. Unbelievably De La Rosa is 43-14 lifetime at home with the Rockies! Danny Duffy continues to outperform his sabremetrics as he has a 2.60 ERA and 1.09 WHIP despite owning just a 3.80 FIP and 4.54 xFIP, as he has been helped by a low .232 BABIP. This could be a nice spot for regression, given he allowed five earned runs on nine hits in five innings his only ever Coors experience. The Rockies are 45-8 in De La Rosas last 53 home starts.

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Nelly

Chicago Cubs + over San Francisco Giants

The Cubs are not posting great offensive numbers but Chicago has won three games in a row including last night's rain-shortened 2-0 win to start this series. San Francisco is just 3-7 in the last 10 games and the Giants have topped four runs just three times in that span. Jake Peavy picked up his first win with the Giants in his last start after losing his first three outings and it was just the second win of the season for the veteran right-hander. Peavy owns a 4.57 ERA on the season while going 2-12 and in seven of his last 10 starts he has allowed at least three runs. Edwin Jackson has worse numbers than Peavy on the season with a 5.74 ERA but he has quality starts in two of his last three outings. Jackson allowed just four hits in a start in San Francisco earlier this season and for the most part he has kept the Cubs in games with a few really bad outings wearing on his overall numbers. The Giants have one of the best bullpens in baseball for the season but the Cubs are not far behind as relief pitching has been a bright spot for Chicago. Over the last 10 games the late innings advantage is with Chicago, featuring a 0.95 bullpen ERA compared to a 3.48 bullpen ERA for the Giants. Chicago pitching has allowed three or fewer runs in eight of the last 10 games with the Cubs going 6-4 and the Cubs have been respectable at home with a 29-31 record at Wrigley Field. San Francisco is not playing well right now and in an equally bad pitching matchup the Cubs should have a great chance to hold on late with the way the bullpen has been pitching.

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BONES BEST BETS

BRAVES ML +104

The better team and the hotter team at plus money? We will take it! The Braves have won 5 in a row including outscoring the Pirates 18-6 in the first two games of this series. Atlanta also owns a better record than the Pirates who have now dropped 7 straight games. Alex Wood has been solid for the Braves this season with a 1.23 WHIP and a 3.07 ERA, while owning a 1.86 ERA over his past 3 starts.

ANGELS ML -135

Another story of hot vs not here. The Angels are winners in 6 of their past 7 games and the Sox have dropped 4 of 5. Richards is a huge reason for the Angels success this season posting a 13-4 record and 2.53 ERA. He takes the hill tonight against an inconsistent and not very good Clay Buchholz. Buchholz has struggled through much of the season with a record of 5-7 and a 5.79 ERA. The Angels are playing for the AL West title and need to stay hot, this is a great spot here for them tonight.

ROYALS ML -120

Sound repetitive yet? The Royals are too hot to not keep playing on. 22-5 over their past 27 games. Meanwhile Colorado has dropped 5 of their last 8. Duffy has been fantastic this season for the Royals with a 1.09 WHIP and a 2.60 ERA. Have to keep putting our money here while KC is on fire.

MARINERS @ PHILLIES – UNDER 7 -125

Incredible pitching match up here, and getting 7 is HUGE! Paxton has not had a start with more than 3 ER in his career and owns a 0.94 WHIP and a 2.20 ERA this season. Hamels ha gone 10 straight starts with 3 ER or less and owns an impressive 1.14 WHIP and a 1.71 ERA over his last 3 starts.

MARLINS -1 -116

The Rangers are a mess – having dropped 7 of 10 and sitting at a disastrous 25-39 on the road this season. Miami is the opposite of all of that with a 37-30 home record and wins in 7 of 10. Meanwhile the pitching matchup heavily favors Miami as well with Eovaldi who has been decent this season and great of late up against Martinez who has had a terrible season (1.61 WHIP, 5.27 ERA) and an equally disastrous time over his past 3 starts (1.56 WHIP, 6.19 ERA).

REDS @ CARDINALS – UNDER 7 -112
REDS ML +106

With Cueto and Lynn on the mound we expect a low scoring pitchers dual. These pitchers are a combine 18-31 o/u this year. In games pitched by Cueto the Reds have scored an average of 3.7 runs and given up an average of 2.5. In games pitched by Lynn the Cards have scored an average of 3.6 and given up an average of 3.1. There is a ton of value at a 7 run total. In Cueto’s last 5 games he has pitched 39 innings and given up a total of 7 runs while striking out 39 and giving out 24 hits. Cards have went under in 8 of Lynn’s last 10 starts. He has been much better at home and at night with a 1.21 WHIP and 1.11 WHIP respectively.

Despite how good Lynn and the Cards have been there is value in the Reds. The Reds have faced Lynn twice this year. They have lost both games but scored 11 runs in those 2 games. This is a hedge on the under too because we are very confident in Cueto shutting down any team. The Reds have won Cueto’s last 5 starts and 8 of his last 10.

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Wunderdog

Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins
Pick: Texas Rangers +143

The Texas Rangers once wielded some lethal bats in their lineup, but they have departed, replaced by strong pitching in recent years. However, injuries have left a vacancy in the attack and on the hill. Miami has been living on the edge all season as they recorded their 11th walk-off win of the season last night, and they have now won 32 games by a single run. Both of those numbers are highs for any MLB team this season. Needless to say their margin for error has been very slim when they win, and the opponent (good or bad) does not seem to enter into that equation. That offers some value on the now underrated Rangers in this contest playing to inflated odds. Eovaldi has been inconsistent to say the least and Miami has paid the price, going 1-7 in his last eight starts if he made a quality start in his previous outing. Take the Rangers in this one.

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Sam Martin

Seattle Mariners at Philadelphia Phillies
Prediction: Seattle Mariners

Rubber match of this three game series is an early 1:00 ET start, and after successfully backing Seattle on the runline last night we'll come right back with the Mariners to win this afternoon. Seattle took a 5-0 lead into the bottom of the ninth inning and the Phillies made it interesting with the tying run coming to the plate, but eventually the rally died with the Phillies scoring just two runs.

James Paxton isn't the same caliber pitcher of either Hernandez or Iwakuma, but he is still underrated and his 2.20 season ERA should speak for itself. More importantly, he has been very confident in his three road starts this year, allowing just three runs total in his 17 1/3 innings of work for an outstanding 1.56 ERA, and the Mariners have won those three games by 6, 3, and 5 runs - all in the underdog role. They are a small dog today but given Paxton's success we'll back him with confidence to stay perfect on the road!

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Jimmy Boyd

Mets/A's Under 7

There's a ton of value on the UNDER in today's matchup between the A's and Mets. Both teams will be sending out strong starters and all signs lead to a low scoring affair. New York will give the ball to youngster Zach Wheeler, who has really came into his own in the 2nd half. Wheeler is 5-0 with a 2.02 ERA over his last 9 starts and will be facing an Oakland offense that has not been putting up a lot of runs of late. The A's will counter with Jeff Samardzija, who is 3-0 with a 2.57 ERA over 5 home starts since coming to Oakland in a trade with the Cubs.

UNDER is 11-5 in the Mets' last 16 games as an underdog of +151 to +200, 25-9 in their last 34 against an AL team that allows 4.7 runs or less a game and 13-3 in their last 16 after scoring 3 runs or less in 3 straight games.

We also see that the UNDER is 68-39 over the last 5 seasons in games where you have a total of 7 to 8.5 runs where the road team comes in hitting .255 or worse with a hot starting pitcher that has an ERA of 2.50 or better over his last 5 starts against an opponent with a bullpen ERA of 3.33 or better. That's a 64% system.

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