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MLB Betting News and Notes Friday, August 15
MLB Betting News and Notes Friday, August 15
MLB Betting News and Notes
By Dave Essler
Washington's first game back from a six game roadie after playing a night game, while the Pirates simply played poorly in Detroit but still are in a playoff race. Not sure Roark isn't a little too pricey at -150 here, especially since Washington isn't as solid against RHP as LHP. Morton can be serviceable, but I don't really trust the Pirates pen. Werth still questionable. At 7 I do lean over. It certainly won't go to 6.5.
Total disrespect for Woods and too much for Wheeler, IMO. The Mets really don't need to be -150 to too many people. With the total as low as it is I can make a good case for the Cubs RL here.
Cahill is instinctively a better bet on the road, and Brad Hand is what he is. Not terribly sure the Fish need to be -140, either, but, Cahill is actually tougher on RHH's which could take Stanton/McGehee out of the equation a bit. Lean under and simply can't take the D-Backs with zero bullpen.
Earlier in the season Tyson Ross was a go-to pitcher and Lynn was a fade. Tough to fathom the Cardinals ONLY being -130 to the Padres, but San Diego does have a better bullpen. No doubt I lean under, and perhaps this is the public disaster of the day at -130 since they are begging us to take the Cardinals.
The Reds go from reasonable dogs with Simon to -150 with Cueto, yet the total is still 9, not far off of the De La Rosa/Simon game Thursday. Have to think the under might be in play here, and with the Reds having some difficulty with LHP (I know it's Morales) I could see thinking about the Rockies RL. We'll see who plays and who doesn't first.
I'm not taking Grienke at -170 to a first place team. Obviously paying a premium, and IMO the better bet is the Brewers. Dodgers flying back from Atlanta is also a "yellow flag" as well.
Another game that looks odd is the Giants. That's about as cheap as you've been able to get Bumgarner in a couple of years, so again that one may look a bit too easy. I hate to take the Phillies, not ever knowing what you'll get, but Hamels at that price versus an offense that's not doing much is the only thing I can look at right now.
Porcello at only -125 to Paxton is another one that seems to say "not so fast, my friends". Paxton is clearly backed by a far better bullpen, too. That total of 8 is perhaps a bit too high, and with the Mariners rested, it may be worth a shot to take the dog here.
Since the Indians struggle far more w/RHP, this MAY be the time the Kluber is too expensive. I am not a Chen fan by any means, but almost without looking I could see taking the Orioles, at the very least on the RL.
I think instinctively people would want to back McCarthy just based on what he's been able to do since joining the Yankees. That may be the right side here, since the Rays play in Texas Thursday night, in the heat, then fly home to play the rested Yankees with the far better closer(s) in Betances and Roberson.
Yet another game in Boston that simply looks to simple. The Red Sox at home against a LHP and their only -135. Something is not quite right there. I never trust Buccholz and if the Red Sox use much bullpen on Thursday, Keuchel and his ground balls may be a very viable option.
I know Martinez is not very good, but -200 on the road is just not happening. Since the Angels are assured of 27 outs being the road team, I could see laying the RL here, especially since they're coming in rested.
I knew Duffy would be good one day, but -165 on the road, even to the Twins, is perhaps a bit much for me to swallow. Twins are rested and Nolasco is at least capable. Twins just took three of four on the road, so Twins RL or nothing, IMO.
Another perhaps live home team with the White Sox. At some point Stroman becomes over priced, and it could be here. Toronto still dinged and the White Sox CAN hit. Noesi CAN pitch once in a while. Because of the White Sox lack of any bullpen and without looking at the weather, this game could go over.
No chance I ever back Alex Wood and his fly balls. Oakland or nothing, and with both pens being solid, perhaps under given the A's have no DH and there's no familiarity with the pitchers. Maybe a great F5 under there.
Re: MLB Betting News and Notes Friday, August 15
MLB Betting News and Notes
Divisional rival not happy seeing this Royals pitcher
The Minnesota Twins have never been able to figure out Kansas City Royals' Darren Duffy. The Twins are 0-4 in their last four starts against Duffy.
Those four starts have seen the Twins score only four runs against Duffy and have 21 strikeouts.
Intra-divisional matchup has been one-sided
To say the Los Angeles Angels have been decimating the Texas Rangers may be an understatement. The Angels going into their weekend series with the Rangers taking the last seven games.
The Angels have outscored the Rangers 48-22, a run differential of 26, and have held the Rangers to three runs or less five times.
Under bettors rush to the window with these teams
The Arizona Diamondbacks and Miami Marlins have been a boon for totals bettors. In the last eight meetings between the D-Backs and Marlins, the teams are carrying a 1-7 over/under record.
The two teams have combined for 38 runs in those eight games (average 4.75 per game) and have six times scored five runs or less combined.
Rockies' OF Carlos Gonzalez, 15-day DL
Gonzalez has been placed on the 15-day disabled list due to left knee tendinitis. He is expected to undergo surgery on Monday and could miss the remainder of the season.
Nationals' RF Jayson Werth, questionable Friday
Werth has missed the last three games with a sprained right shoulder. He is questionable Friday against the Pirates.
Re: MLB Betting News and Notes Friday, August 15
MLB Odds and Picks
By: Micah Roberts
LAS VEGAS -- We’ve got 11 series that start tonight, in addition to four others that began Thursday, but there are four that stand out since they are pivotal for each team’s playoff hopes. Lose two out of three and it’s a big deal, but not unmanageable, with six weeks remaining in the regular season. Lose all three and it could be a disaster.
Let’s take a look at the rotations and prices for these four series:
Pittsburgh Pirates (64-57) at Washington Nationals (66-53)
Series Price: Nationals -175
Friday: Charlie Morton (5-11) vs. Tanner Roark (11-7) -150, 7 OV -125
Saturday: Jeff Locke (4-3) vs. Gio Gonzalez (6-9)
Sunday: Edinson Volquez (10-7) vs. Doug Fister (12-3)
Outlook: This is a possible playoff matchup, with the Nationals running away with the NL East (six-game lead) and the Pirates currently holding the second wild-card spot, a half-game behind St. Louis and a half-game ahead of San Francisco. The Pirates have lost eight of their last 15 games, and it’s been a struggle even to be that good, but they keep plugging away. The Bucs took three of four at home against the Nationals in May, but both of these teams have a much different look now. The Pirates aren’t playing as well, and the Nationals are hitting on nearly all cylinders, winning six of their last eight. The Nationals should take two of three here, and if the Pirates don’t win Saturday, it could be a Washington home sweep.
Notes: The Pirates have struggled mightily on the road this season with a 25-33 record (-7.8 units), including dropping their last two in Detroit. Four of the last six meetings between the Pirates and Nationals in Washington have gone OVER the total. The Pirates are 12-6 (+5.6 units) in Friday games, while the Nationals are 7-12 (-9.4 units). The Nationals are 23-26 (-9.2 units) when facing a team with a winning record. Pirates 2B Neil Walker (16 HR) could return to the lineup tonight.
Seattle Mariners (65-55) at Detroit Tigers (65-54)
Series Price: Tigers -140
Friday: James Paxton (2-0) vs. Rick Porcello (13-7) -130, 8.5
Saturday: Felix Hernandez (13-3) vs. David Price (11-8)
Sunday: Chris Young (11-6) vs. Robbie Ray (1-2)
Outlook: Just when we started talking about Detroit maybe having the best five-man rotation ever seen, Buck Farmer and Robbie Ray get inserted in for Anibal Sanchez and Justin Verlander. The Tigers snapped out of their four-game losing streak to beat Pittsburgh twice, while the Mariners have been sizzling hot, winning eight of their last nine, including a just-completed sweep against the Blue Jays. The Mariners took two of three at Seattle when they met in May in their only meeting of the season so far. The big matchup will be Saturday between King Felix and David Price. The winner of that game will likely win the series. Look for the Mariners to keep their roll going and take two of three.
Notes: Seattle is 10-3 (+8.2 units) when playing after a day off, and it’s also 31-23 on the road this season (+13.2 units). The Tigers are 25-17 (+1.8 units) against lefties and have hit .290 while scoring 4.7 runs per game at home. Five of the last six meetings in Detroit between the two teams have gone OVER the total.
Milwaukee Brewers (67-55) at Los Angeles Dodgers (70-53)
Series Price: Dodgers -200
Friday: Jimmy Nelson (2-3) vs. Zack Greinke (12-8) -170, 7 UN -120
Saturday: Yovani Gallardo (7-6) vs. Clayton Kershaw (14-2)
Sunday: Kyle Lohse (11-7) vs. Dan Haren (10-9)
Outlook: The Brewers took two of three when these teams met last week in Milwaukee, and this will be the last time they meet until possibly October. The Brewers again face the strength of the Dodgers – Kershaw and Greinke – which is why the Dodgers are such huge favorites to win the series. Last week the Brewers beat Greinke, but got shut down by Kershaw as they were going for the sweep. The Dodgers have more wiggle room in NL West, with a 5.5-game lead over the Giants, but the Brewers have been scratching and clawing to stay atop the NL Central (two games ahead) with St. Louis and Pittsburgh playing .500 ball. This should come down to Sunday’s game, with the Brewers trying to avoid the sweep, but Dan Haren has pitched very well his last two starts.
Notes: The Brewers like to start a weekend series with a bang and have gone 13-6 (+7.9 units) on Friday’s this season. Both teams excel when the total is 7 runs or less: the Dodgers are 41-28 (+5.3 units) and the Brewers are 16-10 (+9.3 units). The Brewers have won five of the last seven meetings at Dodger Stadium.
Oakland A’s (73-48) at Atlanta Braves (61-60)
Series Price: A’s -125
Friday: Jason Hammel (9-9) vs. Alex Wood (8-9) -120, 7 UN -120
Saturday: Sonny Gray (12-6) vs. Julio Teheran (10-9)
Sunday: Jon Lester (13-7) vs. Mike Minor (4-8)
Outlook: The A’s have lost four of their last five, but have handled NL teams well, going 10-2 (+7.5 units) against them this season. They still have a two-game lead over the Angels in the AL West despite their recent run-producing struggles since trading Yoenis Cespedes. Meanwhile, the Braves have lost 12 of their last 15 games and are six games behind the Nationals in the NL East. The Braves are also 4-10 (-7.8 units) against AL teams. Now they have to go against the best. Friday looks to be the only favorable matchup for the Braves, not just because A’s weak link Hammel is pitching, but because they’re 14-5 (+9 units) on Fridays this season. Oakland should take two of there here.
Notes: Freddie Freeman is hitting .517 over the Braves last eight games and is 4-for-5 with a home run over his career against Hammel. Justin Upton (hamstring) is considered day-to-day. Alex Wood has a 1.33 ERA over his last three starts.
Cubs (Wood) +130 at Mets, 7:10 p.m. ET
Rays (Cobb) -128 vs. Yankees. 7:10 p.m. ET
Braves (Wood) -120 vs. Braves, 7:35 p.m. ET
Cardinals (Lynn) -125 vs. Padres, 8:15 p.m. ET
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