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MLB Betting News and Notes Wednesday, August 13

MLB Betting News and Notes Wednesday, August 13

Baseball Betting: Streaks, Tips, Notes

Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles Angels

The closing matchup of a mini two game inter-league series between Los Angeles Angels and Philadelphia Phillies is Wednesday's baseball betting focus. According to the current betting odds, Los Angeles Angels are -$2.10 home favorite. That whopping nod by the oddsmaker is due to the overall success LAA has had vs Philadelphia (8-1) and to a greater extent the success of the Angel starter and slump of Philadelphia's hurler. The Angels send the team’s ace, Jered Weaver, to the mound. The right-hander hitting a rough spot the past three going 1-1 with a 6.35 ERA remains a solid 12-7 on the year with a 3.68 ERA. Despite the recent setbacks, Halos have won eight of Weaver's last ten starts, nine of his last twelve at Angel Stadium. On the other mound, the Philadelphia counters with A.J. Burnett. Over his last three, the righty is 0-3 with a whopping 9.23 ERA bringing the season mark to 6-12 with a 4.29 ERA. Phillies have dropped eight of Burnett's last nine trips to the mound. Backing a hefty favorite is always a risky proposition. So, the best choice is a run line (-1.5, -$1.10).

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Re: MLB Betting News and Notes Wednesday, August 13

Game of the Day: Dodgers at Braves

Los Angeles Dodgers at Atlanta Braves (-113, 7)

The Los Angeles Dodgers look to maintain their recent dominance of the Atlanta Braves when the teams continue their four-game series Wednesday in Atlanta. After dispatching the Braves in the National League Division Series last fall, the Dodgers have claimed the first five meetings between the teams in 2014. Each of those victories have come in the past three weeks, playing a big role in the divergent paths for the two squads.

Los Angeles has won three straight and 13 of 18 to expand its lead in the National League West to six games over San Francisco. Atlanta, meanwhile, has lost 11 of 13 to tumble five games behind first-place Washington in the NL East and 2 1/2 games back of the second wild-card spot. With another loss Wednesday, the Braves would sit at .500 for the first time since they opened the year 1-1.

LINE HISTORY: Pinnacle Sports opened the Bravesa as -108 faves but the line now sits -113. The total has held at 7.

INJURY REPORT: Dodgers - SS Hanley Ramirez (15-day DL, oblique). Braves - SS Andrelton Simmons (Questionable, ankle).

POWER RANKINGS: Dodgers (-194), Braves (-164)

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "The Dodgers may not be dominating the opposition right now, but they still have the make-up of a World Series contender. It will be interesting to see if the Braves are able to build on a much-needed series win over the division rival Nats." Covers Expert Sean Murphy.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Dodgers LH Hyun-Jin Ryu (13-5, 3.21 ERA) vs. Braves RH Ervin Santana (11-6, 3.69)

Ryu is 4-0 with a 1.91 ERA over his last five starts after tossing seven scoreless innings in a win over the Los Angeles Angels on Thursday. He has limited opponents to a .198 average while posting 32 strikeouts against only four walks in that span. Ryu last faced the Braves in Game 3 of the NLDS in October, giving up four runs and six hits in only three innings.

Santana cruised through five scoreless frames in his previous start against Washington before giving up four runs in his sixth and final inning, but still managed to pick up his fourth straight win. He has a 2.65 ERA during the winning streak, which also includes one no-decision at San Diego earlier this month. The veteran is 4-4 with a 3.27 ERA in eight career starts versus the Dodgers.


* Dodgers are 7-0 in the last seven meetings.
* Under is 4-0 in umpire Ripperger's last four games behind home plate.
* Braves are 2-11 in their last 13 overall.
* Dodgers are 5-0 in Ryu's last five starts.

COVERS CONSENSUS: 61.97 percent of wagers on Covers Consensus are backing the Dodgers.

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Wednesday's Tip Sheet
By Kevin Rogers

Pirates at Tigers

Probable Pitchers:
PIT: Worley (5-1, 2.30 ERA)
DET: Farmer (ML Debut)

Series recap: The Pirates have taken care of business through the first two games of this four-game set, beating the Tigers convincingly on Monday, 11-6, while holding off Detroit last night, 4-2. Pittsburgh owns a five-game winning streak over Detroit since last season, including four straight victories at PNC Park.

What to watch for: The final two contests of this series shift to Comerica Park tonight with ex-Georgia Tech standout Buck Farmer making his Major League debut for the Tigers. Detroit stumbles home following a dreadful 2-7 road trip, capped off by four consecutive defeats. Vance Worley has pitched well of late for the Pirates, allowing just three earned runs in his last four starts, all Pittsburgh wins.

Dodgers at Braves

Probable Pitchers:
LAD: Ryu (13-5, 3.21 ERA)
ATL: Santana (11-6, 3.69 ERA)

Series recap: The Dodgers continued their domination of the Braves this season, capturing their fifth win in five tries in Tuesday’s 4-2 triumph as +120 underdogs. Stretching it back to last season, Los Angeles has beaten Atlanta eight of the past nine meetings since the start of the 2013 NLDS.

What to watch for: The Braves continue to spiral out of control by losing 11 of their last 13 games, while plating two runs or less for the eighth time in this cold stretch. The good news heading into tonight’s action is the five-game winning streak by Atlanta when Ervin Santana takes the mound at Turner Field dating back to early July. The bad news for the Braves is Hyun-Jin Ryu has been terrific for the Dodgers on the road, as Los Angeles has compiled a 9-3 mark on the highway when the southpaw pitches.

Athletics at Royals

Probable Pitchers:
OAK: Kazmir (13-4, 2.73 ERA)
KC: Vargas (8-5, 3.48 ERA)

Series recap: Oakland snapped Kansas City’s eight-game winning streak in last night’s 11-3 rout as -140 road favorites. The A’s bounced back after dropping the opener of this series on Monday, 3-2, but Kansas City still remains in first place of the AL Central thanks to Detroit’s defeat at Pittsburgh.

What to watch for: Since a 13-2 record in Scott Kazmir’s first 15 starts this season, the A’s have split the southpaw’s past eight outings. However, Kazmir has won each of his last two road starts at Texas and San Francisco in blowout fashion. In spite of last night’s loss, the Royals are 10-3 in their past 13 games at Kaufmann Stadium, while posting a 5-2 record in their previous seven contests against left-handed starting pitchers, including a win over Kazmir earlier this month in Oakland.

Phillies at Angels

Probable Pitchers:
PHI: Burnett (6-12, 4.29 ERA)
LAA: Weaver (12-7, 3.68 ERA)

Series recap: The Angels beat the Phillies for the third time this season on Tuesday, 7-2 to cash easily as hefty -240 favorites. Los Angeles has won each of the past eight meetings with Philadelphia dating back to 2003, as the Phillies made their first trip to Orange County in 11 seasons.

What to watch for: Philadelphia has been outscored, 22-2 in its past three road defeats, while A.J. Burnett has failed to win in his previous five trips to the mound. The Phillies have struggled in interleague play this season, which includes a 1-5 record on the road. The Angels have won eight of Jered Weaver’s past 10 starts, even though Los Angeles stumbled against Boston as a -180 favorite in his previous trip to the mound last Friday.

Blue Jays at Mariners

Probable Pitchers:
TOR: Dickey (9-11, 3.99 ERA)
SEA: Iwakuma (10-6, 2.86 ERA)

Series recap: The Mariners have dominated the Blue Jays through the first two games of this set at Safeco Field. Following an 11-1 rout in Monday’s opener, the M’s took care of the Jays in last night’s 6-3 triumph as -120 favorites for their seventh win in the past eight contests.

What to watch for: Toronto won six straight road games to finish off July, but the Jays have lost all five away contests this month, while scoring two runs or less four times on the highway in August. R.A. Dickey has struggled on the road all season with the Jays putting together an ugly 3-9 record in his 12 starts away from Toronto. The M’s have hit the ‘under’ in five straight starts made by Hisashi Iwakuma, while the right-hander is 2-1 in his career against Toronto.

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MLB Betting News and Notes

Home team cashing with Meals behind the dish

The home team has won four-straight ball games with umpire Jerry Meals calling balls and strikes.

Meals will be working behind the plate in Cincinnati as the Reds host the Boston Red Sox in interleague action Wednesday afternoon.

Meals ranks 30th in our MLB Umpire Homer standings with a record of 12-9 on the season. There is an average of 9.62 runs scored in the 21 games he's worked home plate this season.

The Reds are currently -148 favorites for the game.

Nationals' RF Jayson Werth, questionable Wednesday

Werth aggravated a shoulder injury and did not play Tuesday. He is questionable for Wednesday's game against the Mets.

Reds' OF Jay Bruce, out Wednesday

Bruce will not play Wednesday against the Red Sox as he is dealing with an illness.

This team struggling versus American League leftys

The San Francisco Giants are a dismal 3-13 in their last 16 ball games versus left-handed starters in interleague matchups.

The Giants are currently involved in an interleague series versus the Chicago White Sox and must face yet another A.L. lefty - Jose Quintana - Wednesday afternoon.

The Sox are currently +123 road dogs at San Francisco's AT&T Park.

American League favorites dominating

Bettors looking for value have not been looking towards the American League. In the past two days, favorites have gone 8-1 in AL action.

There are five games in the AL Wednesday.

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MLB Odds and Picks
By: Micah Roberts

LAS VEGAS -- With a slight change in his delivery, Hyun-Jin Ryu has become almost unbeatable, giving the Dodgers perhaps the best 1-2-3 starting combination in baseball. He’s an underdog tonight at Atlanta, after being in that role just once during the Dodgers’ five-game win streak behind him, as L.A. looks for its sixth straight win over the Braves.

After getting rocked for seven runs on July 8 against Detroit, Ryu changed the grip and arm angle of his slider and also altered his curveball. Since then, he’s gone 4-0 with a 1.91 ERA and only four walks over 33 innings.

Ryu’s also got a nice edge to him when rested, something manager Don Mattingly has utilized to his team’s benefit. On five days' or more rest, he’s 17-5 with a 2.70 ERA in 27 starts. He last pitched on Thursday against the Angels.

Even if Ryu wasn’t at the top of his game right now, the Dodgers might still be a play -- the Braves can’t seem to snap out of their hitting funk. They’ve averaged only 2.5 runs a game while losing 11 of their last 13 games. Their lone offensive outburst over the last 13 games came on Friday, when they beat Washington, 7-6, on their return home after a disastrous west coast trip, where they lost all eight games. Since then, they have averaged only two runs a game over their last four.

The Braves' starting pitcher on Friday, Ervin Santana, gets the call again tonight. Santana was cruising along with a 7-0 lead through five innings, but the Nats put four on the board in the sixth. While that was it for Santana, the Braves were able to hold on, barely. Santana has won his last five starts at home, and the Braves have won six of his last eight starts overall.

Had the Braves offense lately been producing even 3.2 runs per game – like the Padres, baseball’s lowest-scoring team – it might be reason enough to make Atlanta the favorite tonight. But the hitting woes that have lingered for more than two weeks should count as a bigger negative against the Braves' rating.

The -115 price on the Braves at home is basically saying this is a pick ‘em game – or that the Dodgers have just a slight edge.

All the value in this number rests with the Dodgers, who are averaging five runs a game over their three-game win streak. While Santana is 8-2 with a 3.51 ERA at home this season, Ryu is 9-2 with a 2.61 ERA in 12 road starts for +6 units of profit. Add in Ryu’s current form, an extra day's rest and the Dodgers’ recent clutch hitting, and one could argue that the Dodgers should be a -120 favorite. So at +105, they’re certainly worth a play.

Tough luck Peavy

It hasn’t mattered whether Jake Peavy has been home or away or whether he’s starting for Boston or San Francisco, his team just can’t seem to get a win behind him. Yes, the Red Sox and Giants are on a combined 0-12 run behind him. But he’s been roughed up only three times over that span, and he’s yet to allow a homer in three starts for the Giants. His boys just don’t seem to score runs for him.

On the season, his teams are 5-18 behind him, translating to -16.8 units of losses, by far the worst in baseball. The next least-profitable pitcher has been Drew Smyly at -10.4 units. The overnight line had Peavy -140 for this afternoon's home match against Jose Quintana and the White Sox, and bettors sniffed out the flawed price and bet it down to -128.

Quintana has been good lately, but the Sox have lost five of his last seven starts. Between the Giants’ five-game losing streak and Peavy’s streak, why not roll with the hot hand and bet against them again today?

Wednesday selections:

Dodgers (Ryu) +105 at Braves, 7:10 p.m. ET

White Sox (Quintana) +118 at Giants, 3:45 p.m. ET

Pirates (Worley) -105 at Tigers, 7:08 p.m. ET

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Re: MLB Betting News and Notes Wednesday, August 13

MLB Betting Cheat Sheet

Dickey Digs the Road

R.A. Dickey brings his knuckleball to the Pacific Northwest Wednesday as he leads the Toronto Blue Jays (+148, 7) into Seattle for a date with the Mariners. Dickey is just 3-8 away from the Rogers Centre, but he has a respectable 3.79 road ERA while allowing just six homers in 76 innings.

A.J. Not AOK

A.J. Burnett will try to end an ugly string of appearances Wednesday as the Philadelphia Phillies (+181, 7.5) visit the Los Angeles Angels. Burnett is 1-8 SU and 7-2 O/U over his last nine appearances, and has surrendered five or more runs in three of his last five.

Shark on the Attack

Jeff Samardzija will look to extend his recent hot streak Thursday as he guides the Oakland Athletics into Kansas City. Samardzija is 5-0 SU over his last five starts - all as a considerable favorite - while the Athletics have scored nearly 7 1/2 runs per game for him over that span.

Pitching Notes

Baltimore right-hander Chris Tillman brings an 11-game quality-start streak into Wednesday's encounter with the New York Yankees (+115, 8). That stretch includes a pair of outings against the Yankees, against whom Tillman is 5-5 with a 5.64 ERA for his career.

Detroit righty Max Scherzer is hoping for a little run support Thursday as the Tigers entertain the Pittsburgh Pirates. Scherzer has given up just three earned runs over his previous two starts - but the Tigers lost both games, managing just three runs combined in those contests.

Hitting Notes

Colorado Rockies outfielder Carlos Gonzalez has had trouble making contact against San Diego righty Ian Kennedy, who gets the call for the Padres (-162, 6.5) on Wednesday. Gonzalez is a .138 career hitter vs. Kennedy, with 13 strikeouts in just 29 at-bats.

Tampa Bay Rays newcomer Nick Franklin hopes a change of scenery will change his fortunes against Texas righty Yu Darvish, who takes the hill Thursday. Franklin is just 1-for-6 against Darvish for his career, while striking out four times.

Totals Streak

Chicago Cubs (0-5-1 O/U): Low-scoring games have become the norm at Wrigley Field, with teams combining to score more than five runs just once during the first five games of a seven-game homestand. Chicago is 59-52-7 O/U for the season.

Prop of the Day

The Mariners are a strong bet to win Wednesday by more than three runs, a bet that pays +390. Dickey's 4.72 career ERA at Safeco Field is the third-highest of any stadium where Dickey has thrown at least 50 innings, while Seattle counterpart Hisashi Iwakuma has a 2.76 career ERA at home.

Injury Notes

Cincinnati Reds second baseman Brandon Phillips (thumb) is expected to begin a minor-league rehab assignment Friday. Phillips has missed 32 games this season, during which the Reds are 13-19 SU, 13-18-1 O/U and -789 units.

The Cleveland Indians are expected to activate outfielder Michael Bourn (hamstring) from the 15-day disabled list this weekend. The Indians are 25-24 SU, 23-25-1 O/U and -220 units with Bourn out of the lineup in 2014.

Weather Watch

Wind at Turner Field will blow from left to right field at 8 mph for Wednesday's game between host Atlanta (-109, 6.5) and the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Braves were 17-4 SU in 21 games under similar conditions in 2013, with teams combining to hit .276 - well above the stadium average of .246.

Umpire Note of the Day

The home team is 10-2 in umpire Ted Barrett's last 12 games behind home plate involving Pittsburgh. Barrett will call the balls and strikes Wednesday when the Pirates (-103, 8.5) visit Detroit.

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