Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, August 13

Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, August 13

DUNKEL INDEX

MLB

Chicago White Sox at San Francisco
The White Sox look to follow up last night's 3-2 win in the series opener and come into today's game with a 5-1 record in Jose Quintana's last 6 starts as a road underdog of +110 to +150. Chicago is the pick (+130) according to Dunkel, which has the White Sox favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+130).

Game 951-952: Colorado at San Diego (6:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Matzek) 15.522; San Diego (Kennedy) 14.102
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: San Diego (-175); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+155); Over

Game 953-954: LA Dodgers at Atlanta (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Ryu) 17.403; Atlanta (Santana) 15.219
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 2; 6
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-115); 7
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-105); Under

Game 955-956: St. Louis at Miami (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Masterson) 14.672; Miami (Eovaldi) 16.132
Dunkel Line: Miami by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Miami (-120); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (-120); Over

Game 957-958: Washington at NY Mets (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Zimmermann) 18.322; NY Mets (Colon) 15.769
Dunkel Line: Washington by 2 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Washington (-125); 7
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-125); Over

Game 959-960: Milwaukee at Chicago Cubs (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Lohse) 15.302; Cubs (Wada) 16.199
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-130); No Run Total
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (+110); N/A

Game 961-962: Minnesota at Houston (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Gibson) 16.569; Houston (Oberholtzer) 15.109
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Houston (-120); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+100); Over

Game 963-964: NY Yankees at Baltimore (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Pineda) 14.309; Baltimore (Tillman) 16.228
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 2; 9
Vegas Line: Baltimore (-135); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-135); Over

Game 965-966: Tampa Bay at Texas (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Archer) 17.859; Texas (Mikolas) 14.332
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 3 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-145); 9
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-145); Under

Game 967-968: Oakland at Kansas City (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Kazmir) 17.587; Kansas City (Vargas) 16.243
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Oakland (-125); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-125); Under

Game 969-970: Toronto at Seattle (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Dickey) 15.775; Seattle (Iwakuma) 17.329
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Seattle (-160); 7
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-160); Under

Game 971-972: Boston at Cincinnati (12:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Ranaudo) 15.422; Cincinnati (Leake) 14.592
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-150) 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (+130); Over

Game 973-974: Chicago White Sox at San Francisco (3:45 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Quintana) 15.879; San Francisco (Peavy) 14.422
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-150); 7
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+130); Under

Game 975-976: Pittsburgh at Detroit (7:08 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Worley) 16.767; Detroit (Farmer) 14.658
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 2; 9
Vegas Line: Detroit (-125); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+105); Over

Game 977-978: Arizona at Cleveland (7:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Nuno) 15.402; Cleveland (Tomlin) 14.566
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-170); 8
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+150); Under

Game 979-980: Philadelphia at LA Angels (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Burnett) 14.901; LA Angels (Weaver) 17.887
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 3; 9
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-220); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-220); Over

Game 981-982: Arizona at Cleveland (10:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Chafin) 14.673; Cleveland (Bauer) 16.221
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-170); 8
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-170); Under

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DUNKEL INDEX

WNBA

Phoenix at Atlanta
The Dream play host to Phoenix (27-4) tonight and come into the contest with a 4-0 ATS record in their last 4 games versus teams with a winning SU record. Atlanta is the pick (+5) according to Dunkel, which has the Mercury favored by only 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+5).

Game 601-602: Chicago at Washington (11:30 a.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 110.753; Washington 115.704
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 5; 142
Vegas Line & Total: Washington by 1; 147 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-1); Under

Game 603-604: Phoenix at Atlanta (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 115.179; Atlanta 113.787
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 1 1/2; 165
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 5; 160 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+5); Over

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Marc Lawrence

Chicago White Sox at San Francisco
Prediction: Chicago White Sox

Edges - White Sox: Quintana 1.73 ERA last nine starts, and 2.81 ERA last five team starts during August. Giants: Peavy 0-12 last twelve overall team starts, and 1-8 day team starts this season. With Peavy just 4-9 in his last thirteen team starts during August, look for more of the same this afternoon. We recommend a 1-unit play on the White Sox.

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Art Aronson

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs    
Play: Milwaukee Brewers -127

The Brewers will send Kyle Lohse (11-5, 3.33 ERA) to the bump; Lohse tossed six innings of one run ball in his last outing but was unlucky to receive a no decision. The Cubs counter with Tsuyoshi Wada (1-1, 3.25 ERA) who has pitched well since joining the rotation in his first season in the bigs; Wada delivered another strong performance in a no-decision against the Rays on Friday, allowing two runs on four hits over his six-plus frames. Note though that his ERA balloons to 4.24 while throwing in front of the home town crowd this year. This is a bad matchup for Wada, the Brewers have gotten the better of left-handed starters in 2014, 18-11 vs. southpaws thus far. Despite the loss yesterday, Milwaukee is still a strong 14-8 when visiting Wrigley Field the last three seasons and 32-15 in the series over that span. I think the visitors can bounce back here, the Brewers had won five of six before yesterday’s shutout loss, I’m expecting an immediate response tonight.


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Scott Spreitzer

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves    
Play: Atlanta Braves -110

Atlanta enters on a 5-0 run when Ervin Santana toes the home rubber and they could use another strong outing from the veteran righty.  Santana has pitched well at home this season and will face a Dodger lineup that's scored just 48 runs in their last 14 games.  No denying the Braves have been slumping, but the Braves are 8-2 in Santana's 10 home starts this season.  He's been especially stingy against Adrian Gonzalez, Matt Kemp, and Juan Uribe, holding the "triumvirate" to 4 hits in 36 combined at-bats.  Nothing wrong with Ryu, he's just in the wrong place at the wrong time in this one and he has been touched for a hefty 1.53 WHIP in three starts against Atlanta.  I'm recommending a play on the Braves on Wednesday.

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Ben Burns

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Seattle Mariners    
Play: Seattle Mariners -152

This series did not set up well for Toronto and it's played out even worse. After getting hammered 11-1 in the opening game, they lost again last night 6-3.  Now on Wednesday night they will have to deal with Hisashi Iwakuma. I'm looking for Seattle to finish the sweep today.

The reason I said that this series did not set up well for the Blue Jays is that they had to play a 19-inning game Sunday.  They won, but at what cost?  To win a game like that, you obviously wear out your bullpen. The truth is that Toronto's starting rotation was never good enough to carry this team.

The offense has failed to pick the team up as well. They've scored just four runs on nine hits.  Things get no easier against Iwakuma, who has great number this year (2.86 ERA, 0.975 WHIP). Over his last eight starts, that ERA has dipped down to 2.04 and in his past two starts, he's allowed only one run each time.

No Seattle opponent has scored more than three runs in any game in August.

I just don't see much reason to expect Toronto to turn things around Wednesday.

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Chase Diamond

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Seattle Mariners    
Play: Seattle Mariners -160 

This game features the 63-58 Jays at the 64-55 Mariners. Jays just have 3 wins out of their last 10 while the Mariners are 802 last 10 and are streaking toward a wild card bid. They have won 3 straight and have a big advantage on the mound tonight in Hisashi Iwakuma who is 10-6 with a 2.86 ERA. He faces Dickey who has been just a average pitcher this season. We are seeing heavy steam going on Seattle and we will follow it here.


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Ray Monohan

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Miami Marlins     St. Louis Cardinals
Play: St. Louis Cardinals +114

Justin Masterson is having one of the worst free agent to be season in recent memory. Since being traded to St. Louis he has been torched but those were against first place teams that can hit not third place teams that can’t. I am not expecting him to toss a no-hitter but I do think he can tame the Marlins enough to get St. Louis a victory. The value is just too good on the Cardinals side.

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Jim Feist

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Detroit Tigers    
Play: Pittsburgh Pirates +108

Pittsburgh has a strong offensive attack, 10th in baseball in runs scored, 7th in batting and slugging, plus tops in on base percentage. That's a concern for the Tigers and their banged up pitching staff. Tigers manager Brad Ausmus said the rotation beyond Saturday is yet to be determined, so for this game he has to go with Buck Farmer. Farmer has made two starts above the Single-A level. He will make his first start in the majors Wednesday night for the Detroit Tigers. Farmer, 23, was 10-5 with a 2.60 ERA in 18 starts this season for Single-A West Michigan, then went 1-0 with a 3.00 ERA in two starts for Double-A Erie. Detroit is in a slump and the Tigers are 1-6 in their last 7 games after losing the first 2 games of a series. Vance Worley goes for the Pirates, at 5-1 with a 2.30 ERA. The Pirates are 4-0 in Worley's last four starts, plus 5-1 against a team with a winning record.

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Dana Lane

Minnesota Twins vs. Houston Astros    
Play: Houston Astros -105

Houston (50-70) may be finding their hitting shoes again after they finished with 12 hits in Tuesday's 10-4 victory over Minnesota after being held to 15 hits and four runs in the previous two games prior. Brett Oberholtzer (4-7, 4.05 ERA) gets the start for Houston. Oberholtzer is 2-0 with a 2.91 ERA in his last 5 starts and should find continued success against the less than average Twins (53-65). In watching Oberholtzer pitch it seems he's finally finding command of all his pitches and is pitching with confidence because it looks like he trust all of his pitches again. Kyle Gibson (10-8, 4.13 ERA) starts for Minnesota. I'm betting the offense is getting hot again and Oberholtzer continues his recent success.

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Red Dog Sports

Toronto vs. Seattle
Play: Under 7

The first two games of the series have gone over but Seattle has played 46 overs to go with 68 unders this year. M's starter Iwakuma has 6 overs and 13 unders this year with an ERA of 2.86 and 0 overs/3 unders with a 1.66 ERA in his last 3 starts. R.A. Dickey starts for the Blue Jays and his ERA is 3.99 this year. This looks to stay under.

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Rob Vinciletti

New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles    
Play: Baltimore Orioles -125

The Orioles cashed big for all clients on Monday as our 7* Game of the year with a solid 11-3 win over the Yankees. Thee two were rained out lat night. tonight the Orioles fit an emerging system that is 31-6 the last 2 seasons when playing on home teams off a home favored win by 5+ runs if they scored 10 or more runs and their opponent is ff a road dog loss by 5 or more runs and scored 4 or less runs with no errors in the loss. Baltimore is 10-1 at home off a home win by 5 or more runs if they scored 10 or more and have won 20 of the last 29 vs winning teams while averaging 7 runs per game the past week. The Orioles have too much fire power for a Yankees team that continues to struggle to score. They have lost 3 of 4 here in Baltimore and have Pineda making his first start in 3 months, so he will be on a pitch count here. C. Tillman for the Orioles has a solid 2.77 home era. Look for the Orioles to soar once again tonight.


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Sleepyj

SF Giants -139

The SF Giants really need a win today to avoid 6 straight losses. They will send RHP Jake Peavy to the mound with his 1-12 record. Why would we back Peavy here? One would think that with a record as bad as Peavy has they should be an underdog with Peavy and 5 straight losses. The odd makers don't believe that to be the case here and neither do we. SF will have to dig deep today to get a win, and Jake Peavy will need to find his control and avoid the big inning. Peavy has pitched better since his trade to SF. This is going to be the one game to get SF and Peavy off the hump so to speak. I think Peavy will avoid that big inning today, as the Whiotesox have really struggled themselves.. The Giants will face CWS LHP Jose Quintana. He hasn't been all that great but can cause trouble for the Giants if he gets on a roll. Giants just faced a LHP last night in Sale. I think the Giants will be able to find the ball much easier today in a must win game Vs. the less crafty Quintana. Both teams have really struggled over the last week to score runs. I think this one will go to the Giants today by a few runs as the Giants will give Peavy his first win in nearly two and a half months. Peavy has been able to throw strikes but his run support has been very low as the Giants struggle to get runs across the board. After two straight losses on the road Peavy will look to come home and get the Giants and himself out of the loss column..Lets back the Giants today as they bounce back today.

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River City Sharps

Pittsburgh Pirates +100

While the Tigers looked like world beaters after they acquired David Price prior to the trading deadline, now they can't seem to keep pitchers healthy and are going deep into the minors to get tonight's starter. The Tigers will give the ball to Buck Farmer, who has only pitched at the A and Double-A levels this season and gets his major league debut tonight. He will be opposed by the Pirates Vance Worley (5-1, 2.30) who has been sensational for the Pirates since being promoted from Triple-A in June. Both of these teams are in the heat of the pennant race as the Tigers now find themselves trailing the Royals by a 1/2 game while the Bucs lead the NL wildcard race. The Pirates are playing some of their best baseball of the year and are 6-1 in their last seven games vs. teams with a winning record. While Farmer looks to be a top prospect for these Tigers, we think he will find tonight's bright lights to be a BIG step up in class. We are backing the hot road dog in this spot.

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Matt Fargo

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Miami Marlins    
Play: St. Louis Cardinals +111

The Cardinals have dropped the first two games of this series and are 1-4 on this current roadtrip. They have dropped to three games behind the Brewers in the National League Central and are clinging to the second Wild Card spot by just a half game over San Francisco. St. Louis could use a win here to get back on track before heading home for a seven-game homestand. And they have been very solid in this spot as the Cardinals are 11-0 in their last 11 games after losing the first two games of a series. Miami has now won four of its last five games and despite still being under .500, the Marlins are only three and a half games behind St. Louis in the Wild Card race. They have been solid a home with a 33-28 record but the Marlins are 3-9 in their last 12 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150. The acquisition of Justin Masterson from Cleveland has not benefitted the Cardinals yet but I expect a rebound effort from him tonight. He has allowed five runs in each of his two starts with his new team but those came against Baltimore and Milwaukee which are 18 and 12 games above .500 respectively. Miami counters with Nathan Eovaldi who is coming off consecutive quality starts after allowing 18 runs in his three previous outings. He has not been effective at home with a 4.78 ERA and the Marlins are 1-6 in his last seven starts following a quality outing in his last game. Also, we play against home teams with a winning percentage between .460 and .499 when the money line is +125 to -125 playing a winning team, in August games. This situation is 58-25 (69.9 percent) over the last five seasons.


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Steve Janus

Nationals/Mets Under 7

This is a great spot to jump on the UNDER in tonight's matchup between the Nationals and Mets. Both teams will be sending out top level starters as Washington will give the ball to Jordan Zimmerman and New York will counter with Bartolo Colon.

Zimmerman has a sizzling 2.21 ERA and 0.836 WHIP over his last 3 starts and has allowed just 3 earned runs in each of his two starts against the Mets this season. Colon is coming off a dominant performance against the Phillies, where he allowed just 1 run on 6 hits over 8 innings of work. It was the second time in his last 3 starts that Colon allowed 1 run or less. He's allowed just 5 runs over 14 innings of work in his two starts vs the Nationals this season.

Key Trends - UNDER is 15-4 over the last 3 years in Nationals road games against a marginal losing team (46%-49%) in the second half of the season, 7-3-1 in Washington's last 11 road games as a favorite of -110 to -150 and 12-4-2 in the Mets last 18 games played on Wednesday.

System - Play Under - All teams where the total is 7 or less (NY METS) - with a team batting average of .245 or worse on the season (NL), playing on Wednesday. This system is 135-81 (63%) since 1997.

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Tony Stoffo

Boston vs. Cincinnati
Play: Under 7.5

Strong trend analysis pointing towards another lower scoring game in this spot here. Under is 6-0 in Red Sox last 6 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record. Under is 4-0 in Red Sox last 4 interleague road games vs. a right-handed starter. Under is 8-1 in Red Sox last 9 road games. Under is 6-0 in Reds last 6 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150. Under is 7-1 in Reds last 8 home games vs. a right-handed starter Under is 12-2 in Reds last 14 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.

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Brandon Shively

Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants
Play: San Francisco Giants -135

I like the Giants in this game as there has to be a sense of urgency for this team as they are now 6 GB out of first place behind the Dodgers. Today they have been installed as a -140-to-150 home favorite over the White Sox. When looking at this line, many people will initially look at the White Sox in this game. The Giants are now on a 5 game losing streak and Peavy who gets the nod for the Giants has now lost 12 straight team starts. To me, it appears that the linesmakers are begging the 'public' to back the White Sox in this game. What always looks too good to be true usually is and I like the Giants to put up some runs in this Day game today to give Peavy a long awaited win. The Giants were shutdown last night vs. one of the AL's best Chris Sale. He shut them out for 8 innings, then the Giants scored 2 runs in the 9th only to lose in extra inning s 3-2. A positive sign for the Giants is that they out-hit the White Sox in this game 9/5. The Giants have a healthy lineup right now with Pagan back in the lineup who has a 5 game hitting streak since coming off the DL. The White Sox offense is Cold right now as they are only averaging 1.7 RPG the last 7 games while hitting .211. In Day games this season, the White Sox are 15-27 (-10.9 Units) . As far as bullpens go, the Giants have a much better bullpen and I will factor this into my decision as well. I will also note that the White Sox are 3-12 in Quintana's last 15 starts vs. a team with a winning record and are 0-4 in his last 4 starts with 4 days of rest. The Giants are 5-1 in their last 6 games as a favorite of -110 to -150 and are 4-0 in their last 4 Wednesday games. Let's lay the chalk this afternoon as Peavy WILL get the WIN as he is long overdue.


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LT Profits

Tampa Bay vs Texas
Pick: Texas +130

The Tampa Bay Rays missed a chance to gain some ground in the wild card race by losing to the team with the worst record in the American League, the Texas Rangers, 3-2 in 14 innings last night. They now send Chris Archer to the mound with his 7-6 record and 3.33 ERA, but he could get matched by the Rangers’ Miles Mikolas in this contest. That is because Mikolas has allowed two runs or less in three of his last four starts and should have the advantage in his first start ever vs. the Rays. He is facing a Tampa Bay offense batting just .234 vs. right-handed pitchers on the road this season while averaging just 3.53 runs per game against them, and also batting only .226 vs. righties the last 10 games overall. The Rays are 3-9 in Archer’s last 12 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.

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Bob Balfe

New York Yankees +120

Michael Pineda was dominate when he came on the scene with the Mariners and has had some setbacks with injury, but this guy has pure raw talent that can be matched up with anyone in the game. When you are getting money as a dog with Pineda he is a must take. Take the Yankees.

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