Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, August 15

Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, August 15

DUNKEL INDEX

MLB

Oakland at Atlanta
The A's head to Atlanta to open a series against a Braves team that is 4-10 in its last 14 interleague games. Oakland is the pick (-105) according to Dunkel, which has the A's favored by 2. Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-105).

Game 951-952: Pittsburgh at Washington (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Morton) 15.302; Washington (Roark) 16.114
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Washington (-150); 7
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-150); Over

Game 953-954: Chicago Cubs at NY Mets (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Wood) 13.707; NY Mets (Wheeler) 16.224
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 2 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-160); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (-160); Under
Game 955-956: Arizona at Miami (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Cahill) 15.302; Miami (Hand) 13.889
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Miami (-130); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+110); Over

Game 957-958: San Diego at St. Louis (8:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Ross) 16.409; St. Louis (Lynn) 15.112
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-135); 7
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+115); Under

Game 959-960: Cincinnati at Colorado (8:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Cueto) 16.904; Colorado (Morales) 15.817
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-150); 9
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-150); Over

Game 961-962: Milwaukee at LA Dodgers (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Nelson) 14.311; LA Dodgers (Greinke) 17.204
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 3; 6
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-170); 7
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-170); Under

Game 963-964: Philadelphia at San Francisco (10:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Hamels) 15.792; San Francisco (Bumgarner) 14.102
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1 1/2; 5
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-145); 6
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+125); Under

Game 965-966: Seattle at Detroit (7:08 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Paxton) 16.309; Detroit (Porcello) 15.475
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Detroit (-135); 8
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+115); Over

Game 967-968: Baltimore at Cleveland (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Chen) 17.302; Cleveland (Kluber 16.435
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1; 6
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-170); 7
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+150); Under

Game 969-970: NY Yankees at Tampa Bay (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (McCarthy) 16.412; Tampa Bay (Cobb) 14.774
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-135); 7
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (+115)); Over

Game 971-972: Houston at Boston (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Keuchel) 14.774; Boston (Buchholz) 15.622
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Boston (-145); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-145); Over

Game 973-974: LA Angels at Texas (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Richards) 15.745; Texas (Martinez) 13.817
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 2; 8
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-220); 9
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-220); Under

Game 975-976: Kansas City at Minnesota (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Duffy) 16.892; Minnesota (Nolasco) 14.259
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 2 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-140); 8
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-140); Over

Game 977-978: Toronto at Chicago White Sox (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Stroman) 17.892; White Sox (Noesi) 15.333
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 2 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Toronto (-150); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-150); Under

Game 979-980: Oakland at Atlanta (7:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Hammel) 16.332; Atlanta (Wood) 14.204
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 2; 8
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-115); 7
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-105); Over

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DUNKEL INDEX

NFL

San Diego at Seattle
The Seahawks return home following last week's 21-16 loss at Denver as they host San Diego on Friday night. Seattle is the pick (-5 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Seahawks favored by 9. Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-5 1/2).

Game 403-404: Philadelphia at New England (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 119.426; New England 124.915
Dunkel Line: New England by 5 1/2; 50
Vegas Line: New England by 3; 46 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New England (-3); Over

Game 405-406: Tennessee at New Orleans (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 122.570; New Orleans 124.246
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 1 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 3 1/2; 43
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (+3 1/2); Over

Game 407-408: Detroit at Oakland (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 123.242; Oakland 119.979
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 3 1/2; 35
Vegas Line: Oakland by 2 1/2; 39
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+2 1/2); Under

Game 409-410: San Diego at Seattle (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 123.140; Seattle 131.958
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 9; 35
Vegas Line: Seattle by 5 1/2; 38 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-5 1/2); Under

SATURDAY, AUGUST 16

Game 411-412: Green Bay at St. Louis (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Green Bay 117.284; St. Louis 121.856
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 4 1/2; 45
Vegas Line: St. Louis by 2 1/2; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-2 1/2); Over

Game 413-414: NY Giants at Indianapolis (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Giants 120.028; Indianapolis 119.488
Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 1; 46
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 2 1/2; 41
Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (+2 1/2); Over

Game 415-416: Baltimore at Dallas (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 126.112; Dallas 119.132
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 7; 37
Vegas Line: Dallas by 1; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+1); Under

Game 417-418: NY Jets at Cincinnati (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Jets 118.838; Cincinnati 125.989
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 7; 45
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 3 1/2; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-3 1/2); Over

Game 419-420: Buffalo at Pittsburgh (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 117.315; Pittsburgh 121.786
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 4 1/2; 36
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 2 1/2; 40
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-2 1/2); Under

Game 421-422: Miami at Tampa Bay (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 118.514; Tampa Bay 117.249
Dunkel Line: Miami by 1 1/2; 33
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay by 2; 37 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (+2); Under

Game 423-424: Atlanta at Houston (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 119.476; Houston 119.042
Dunkel Line: Even; 46
Vegas Line: Houston by 2 1/2; 40
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+2 1/2); Over

Game 425-426: Arizona at Minnesota (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 120.519; Minnesota 124.930
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 4 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 3; 38
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-3); Over

SUNDAY, AUGUST 17

Game 427-428: Denver at San Francisco (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 119.393; San Francisco 125.031
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 5 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 3; 40
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-3); Over

Game 429-430: Kansas City at Carolina (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 123.384; Carolina 122.008
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Carolina by 3; 39
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+3); Over

MONDAY, AUGUST 18

Game 431-432: Cleveland at Washington (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 123.868; Washington 123.730
Dunkel Line: Even; 44
Vegas Line: Washington by 3; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+3); Over

WNBA

Minnesota at San Antonio
The Lynx head to San Antonio carrying a 4-1 ATS record in their last 5 road games. Minnesota is the pick (-3) according to Dunkel, which has the Lynx favored by 7. Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-3).

Game 601-602: Washington at Connecticut (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 110.609; Connecticut 109.322
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 1 1/2; 143
Vegas Line & Total: Washington by 4; 146
Dunkel Pick: Connecticut (+4); Under

Game 603-604: Tulsa at Atlanta (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tulsa 108.655; Atlanta 111.449
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 3; 160
Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta by 6; 165
Dunkel Pick: Tulsa (+6); Under

Game 605-606: Minnesota at San Antonio (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 117.302; San Antonio 110.119
Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 7; 164
Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota by 3; 157
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-3); Over

Game 607-608: Seattle at Los Angeles (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 106.444; Los Angeles 114.302
Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 8; 153
Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles by 6 1/2; 146
Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (-6 1/2); Over

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Sleepyj

Eagles / Patriots Under 46

I want to get this out there now. I think this 46 is way to high here for preseason. Philly will play the starting defense much more in this game. They really have stepped up and the run defense has impressed. Nick Foles looked ok but i think he will struggle to find some rhythm on the road in NE this week. Chip Kelly will not show the entire playbook and will go for a more vanilla look with his starters..NE 2nd string defense looked bad last week i'm sure that unit will step up this week. To many mistakes last week cost Philly a win at the end with the 2nd and 3rd string defense..That unit as well will step up to make themselves noticed to the coaching staff...I think this line is way to high for two 2nd and 3rd units defenses that will need to step up..NE qb Mallet looked rather lost last week i don't think he will have much success this week again either. Gronk and Brady will both play..Brady did not start last week and i think he will be rusty going against a Philly defense that has some extra game reps..I think this one stays under..line is at 46 and 45.5..right now as they just dropped..Just a brief play as i think this line goes down.

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Wunderdog

San Diego @ Seattle
Pick: Seattle -5.5

Seattle comes home for its opener, and this team is an absolute beast at Century Link Field in the postseason, regular season and preseason - especially for hard-driving coach Pete Carroll, who is 22-11 ATS in August. This team has loads of depth and talent, especially on defense, and even in losing to the high-powered Broncos last week, they only allowed 274 yards. On offense, their preseason QB rotation is loaded with three players who have a lot of NFL regular season starting experience in Russell Wilson, Tarvaris Jackson and Terrelle Pryor. Coach Carroll demands physical play - and gets it. San Diego is in town for their first road game with nothing to prove after a 27-7 rout of Dallas. A year ago in week two in their first road game, the Chargers turned it over four times in a loss at Chicago, surrendering 33 points. These teams met early last August too, and the Seahawks won in San Diego 31-10, as part of a 4-1 SU/ATS Seattle preseason run. Go with the defending champs at home.

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Tony Stoffo

Eagles vs. Patriots
Play: Over 46.5

Last preseason in game #1 the Eagles and Patriots played to a 31-22 final. This year they meet again and I look for another higher scoring game and a solid release on the over - as these two teams have scrimmaged this week again each other - so I look for to very sharp offenses heading into Friday night's game. Plus lets not forget these two teams in last years preseason saw the over go a combined 7-1.

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Joe D'Amico

Philadelphia Eagles at New England Patriots
Pick: Philadelphia Eagles

Both teams are 0-1 SU and ATS this pre-season. Both are touted to take their Divisions. Last Year the Eagles finished 10-6 then lost to the Saints in the Playoffs. The Pats went 12-4 in the regular season, beat the Colts in the post-season, only to get ousted by the Broncos a week later. They beat Philly in LY's pre-season. This year they got shellacked by Washington in Week 1 as Philadelphia posted 28 points in a tough loss to Chicago. The Eagles had a difficult time rushing the ball LW but all four QB's, Kinne, Barkley, Sanchez, and Foles threw with success against the Bears "D". The Patriots managed a mere 15 FD's and couldn't run the ball at all vs. a weak Redskins defense. With the helm in the hands of backups, Mallett and Garappolo, I don't see much more success this week, especially with no ground game to pass off of. I feel Philly has a superior QB, RB, WR, and CB situation. And knowing the Eagles coaching staff, no way do they allow as many points as they did last week. They know, that they have the leg up in the NFC East and need to go into the regular season in sync. New England is set for another Division Title and won't put their star's in harm's way. I lean on the Eagles here.


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Marc Lawrence

Arizona Diamondbacks at Miami Marlins
Prediction: Arizona Diamondbacks

Edges - Diamondbacks: Cahill 2-0 with 1.00 ERA last two team starts in this series, and 5-1 last six team starts during August. Marlins Hand 3-8 career home team starts, including 1-3 with 5.32 ERA this season, and 5-13 last eighteen overall team starts. With Cahill in solid KW form with 20 strikeouts and 3 walks his last four starts, and the Snakes 8-2 their last eight games in Miami, we recommend a 1-unit play on Arizona.

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Art Aronson

Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins    
Play: Kansas City Royals -135

The visiting Royals will send Danny Duffy (7-10, 2.57 ERA) to the hill; Duffy has won two straight starts and has been solid on the road this season despite receiving less than fantastic run support. Note that Duffy has a very respectable 2.19 ERA in 61 innings away from friendly confines thus far and is 2-1 with a 2.03 ERA in five games started against the Twins lifetime. In fact, Duffy's .192 mark since the beginning of June is fourth-best in baseball and his 2.13 ERA in that span is sixth among AL starters. The Twins will counter with Ricky Nolasco (5-7, 5.90 ERA); note that the right-hander is making his first start since July 6th. Nolasco has struggled this year and we should expect him to be a little rusty in his first game back. Kansas City is on absolute fire right now as it has won 18 of 22 coming into this game and just took three of four from the Athletics. While Minnesota is coming off a nice series win over the Astros, Houston isn’t in the same ball park with KC when it comes to the talent department. I think the Royals continue to roll.


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Mike Lundin

Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins    
Play: Kansas City Royals -135

The Royals just keeps on rumbling and are 9-1 in their last 10 games. They have a good road record going 33-26, and I like their chances to improve on those numbers as they'll open a four game set at Minnesota tonight.

Danny Duffy (7-10, 2.57 ERA) will toe the slab for the Royals, and he must be full of confidence right now. The southpaw just keeps on delivering the goods, and he's undefeated going 2-0 in his last four starts. He's been hurling the ball well on the road all season, posting a 2.19 ERA over 13 outings. The Twins have Joe Mauer back, but he's 0-4 versus Duffy and the Minnesota line-up is batting .200 over 67 at bats against the 25 year old.

Ricky Nolasco (5-7, 5.90 ERA) will take the mound for the Twins coming off a horrible outing as he conceded six runs on seven hits over just two innings in a loss versus the Yankees his last time out. He's 3-3 with a 4.28 ERA over eight starts home at Target Field this season.

With an obvious pitching mismatch and a Royals in top shape there can only be one play here.

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Jimmy Adams

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins    
Play: Miami Marlins -134

Arizona is clearly a terrible team right now. With Paul Goldschmidt sidelined with a broken hand and some other key pieces getting traded away, this squad basically struggles to put up 2 runs on a nightly basis. They’ve lost 8 of their last 12 behind a .232 batting average. The Snakes have also put in a ton of innings recently, so they’ll be tired tonight in Miami.

Trevor Cahill has been a “bet against” pitcher all season. This guy was once a solid pitcher with the A’s, but those days are long gone. His career hit a huge low when he was sent down to AAA Reno earlier this year to work on his command issues. He never really got things fixed down in the minors, so it’s no surprise that he’s struggled since coming back up from the farm. Cahill did have a quality outing his last time out, but this guy has serious command issues and is lacking in confidence.

The D’Backs can’t really hit anyone, but they definitely don’t have anyone in the lineup that can hit lefties. Brad Hand takes the mound looking to bounce back from a poor start. Prior to his last outing, Hand had gone 2-1 with a 2.28 ERA in his previous 4 outings. The Marlins are right around .500, but they are light years away from this terrible D’Backs squad.

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Jack Jones

Tampa Bay Rays -135

After winning six of their last eight games overall, the Tampa Bay Rays (60-61) have pulled within one win of getting back to .500 on the season.  They still believe they have a shot to win a wild card spot, and they are certainly playing like it here of late.  The Yankees, meanwhile, have lost four in a row while scoring a combined seven runs in the process.

Tampa Bay has the clear advantage on the mound in this one.  Alex Cobb has gone 7-6 with a 3.41 ERA and 1.191 WHIP in 18 starts this season, including 1-0 with a 1.83 ERA and 1.118 WHIP in his last three.  The right-hander has allowed two earned runs or fewer in each of his last six starts.

What has been most impressive is Cobb's dominance of the Yankees.  He has gone 4-1 with a 2.01 ERA and 0.851 WHIP in seven career starts against them.  He'll be opposed by Brandon McCarthy, who is 7-11 with a 4.31 ERA and 1.346 WHIP in 24 starts this season between Arizona and New York.

New York is 2-12 (-11.5 Units) against the money line after a game where the bullpen was hit hard for four or more runs this season.  The Yankees are 8-27 in their last 35 games as an underdog of +110 to +150.  Tampa Bay is 9-2 in its last 11 vs. AL East opponents.  The Rays are 14-6 in their last 20 games as a favorite.  Tampa Bay is 18-8 in its last 26 home meetings with New York.

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Will Rogers

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Washington Nationals    
Play: Washington Nationals -148

The Nats are coming off a 3-0 sweep at New York Mets, and are 6-2 in their last eight games. They'll face a Pirates team that has lost its last two games and has a poor road record for the season going 25-33. It is well worth the price to play the home team who is 34-24 at Nationals Park for the season.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - The Pirates hand the ball to right-hander Charlie Morton (5-11, 3.62 ERA) who was torched his last time out. Morton surrendered five hits on five runs over five innings in a 8-2 loss versus the Padres. He's pitched poorly on the road this season, going 2-7 with a 4.52 ERA over 11 starts. The Nats will counter with Tanner Roark (11-7, 2.86 ERA), who contrary to Morton is coming off a quality start as he surrendered one run on six hits over seven innings in a 4-1 win at Atlanta. The 27 year old has been solid at home this season, going 5-5 with a 2.40 ERA.

2. Trends - The Pirates have lost all of Morton's last four starts. Washington on the other hand is 5-1 in Roark's last six starts.

3. X-factor - Andrew McCutchen is still on the DL for the Pirates, leaving them a little light on offensive firepower.

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Jim Feist

Cincinnati Reds vs. Colorado Rockies    
Play: Cincinnati Reds -142

Cincinnati has outscored opponents by almost 30 runs this season, so they have talent. The Reds are 39-14 in their last 53 games vs. a team with a winning percentage below .400. Ace Johnny Cueto (14-6, 2.05 ERA) goes here, with the team 6-1 his last seven starts. Cueto got to 14 wins Sunday against the Marlins, holding them to two runs over eight innings, striking out nine and allowing five hits and two walks. He did this despite taking a bouncer off his rib cage in the third inning. The Reds are 11-3 in Cuetos last 14 starts vs. the National League West and 46-22 in Cueto's last 68 starts vs. a team with a losing record. By contrast, Colorado has been outscored by almost 80 runs with an awful pitching staff. The Rockies are 6-13 at home games against a right-handed starter. Starter Franklin Morales (4.97 ERA, 5-6) is wild, walking 51 in 112 innings along with 125 hits allowed. The Rockies are 12-43 in their last 55 games vs. a right-handed starter, plus 2-6 in Morales' last 8 starts.

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Jesse Schule

Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Francisco Giants    
Play: Philadelphia Phillies +1½ -195

The Giants ended a five game losing skid with an emphatic 7-1 home win over the White Sox Wednesday, but they'll face Philadelphia's ace in Game 1 of this home series versus Philly tonight.

Cole Hamels has been brilliant for the Phillies, coming off four consecutive starts limiting the opposition to one run or less. Unfortunately a lack of run support has prevented him from picking up wins in each of his last two appearances. This looks like a good spot for the southpaw, who held the Giants to one run on six hits through eight innings, winning the only previous meeting this season. He also boasts an incredible 1.55 ERA in 11 starts on the road this year.

The Giants hand the ball to Madison Bumgarner, who has not pitched well in San Francisco this year. Bumgarner (13-9, 3.22 ERA) gave up four runs on seven hits over eight innings in a loss to Kansas City his last time out. He's 4-6 with a 5.60 ERA in 11 starts at home.

The visitors appear to be a good bet as underdogs here.

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Rob Vinciletti

Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Francisco Giants    
Play: San Francisco Giants -138

The Giants fit a Powerful system that has not lost in the history of the database going 12-0. While we don't believe they will win big toniight, we do think they will take down the Phillies. We are playing on home favorites off a home favored win by 5 or more runs, vs an opponent off a 1 run road dog loss that scored 4 or less runs and had 5+ hits. The Phillies are 0-3 on the road off a 1 run road loss. Bumgarner and Hamels are on the mound tonight. Hamels has not been bad but has been victimized by a lack of run support and that should be the case again tonight as the Phillies will be on the road vs Bumgarner who has won 5 of his last 6 home August starts an shut down the Phillies going 8 scoreless against them last month. Look for the Giants to take the opener.


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Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAY

San Diego/ Seattle Under 38.5:  First let's note that these teams play each other in week two of the regular season and that should mean a very vanilla offensive game plan for this game as they don't want to show a whole lot here. Neither team was really explosive in game 1 on offense. The Chargers were better than Seattle, but San Diego also went up against a very poor Dallas defense. Seattle had their struggles on offense vs Denver and I look for then to have their struggles here vs a better San Diego defense. The Seattle defense looked in top form last week vs the Broncos, holding them to just 158 yards passing. They were run on for 116 yards and this could be a game where the Bolts will look to run a bit more. I see Seattle also running the ball plenty here. The Seahawks are 7-1 to the OVER in week two of the preseason, but with the teams playing each other in week two of the regular season, This calls for a scaled down offense from both teams and that should keep the scoring around 31 points or less.

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Philadelphia/ New England Over 46.5: Surprise, I will be going with the Over in this one. The Pats looked horrible on offense last week and should do better vs a weaker Philadelphia defense. Also I would expect that Brady will be in there for this one to get some reps. Even if not Garrapolo did look good last week and will be going up against the Philadelphia 2nd or 3rd string defense, which should mean some late points. Ryan Mallet has had much better preseason games in the past then he did in game 1 and I look for him to bounceback in this one. The Pats defense also struggled in the game and should do so again vs a Philadelphia team that put 28 points on the board last week and will again look to push tempo. I will also look for Nick Foles to have a better game after tossing 2 INTs in the opener, which was the same amount of INTs he threw all of last year. This one should be a shootout and it should be fum. 31-28 sounds about right. 


Oakland -2.5 over Detroit: Have a feeling the Raiders will put forth a solid effort tonight, plus we note that when the Lions are at .500 or better as road dogs in the preseason vs an opponent off a SU loss they are just 2-14 ATS.

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Raphael Esparza

Detroit at Oakland
Play: Under 39

Can somebody please tell me why this total is 39? The Oakland Raiders scored six points last week against the Vikings and those six points were late in the 4th quarter. Raiders QB’s Schaub, and Carr both struggled last week and I don’t see much improvement this week from the Detroit Lions. The Lions offense was no better last week as Detroit was only able to produce 13 points against Cleveland and granted the Lions had some key players sitting but still it was against the Browns defense. I thought this total would be around 35.5 or 36 but 39 points – I just don’t see it. Take the ‘under’ here

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Mike Davis

Washington -1.5 +125

This is a great opportunity for Tanner Roark and the Washington Nationals to jumpstart their 10 game home stand with a victory. On a staff that has Strasburg and Zimmerman, you can certainly make an argument that Roark and Fister have been the two best starters on the staff. Roark is 11-7 with a 2.86 era. He had a bad outing two starts ago vs. Baltimore. If you throw that game out, he has only allowed 1 earned run in each of his last 5 starts and he went 7 innings in each of those outings. “That” is getting it done. In those 5 starts, the Nationals were 5-0 and only one game was a one-run game.

Pittsburgh sends Charlie Morton to the mound to begin this three game series. Morton is a guy that I really like but he has been scuffling over the past month or so. The Pirates are 0-4 in his past 4 starts and Charlie has allowed 14 earned runs and 27 hits in 23 innings. Those 4 games were against SD, Miami, at SF and at Colorado. Colorado is a good hitting team, especially at home, but the other three teams have struggled on offense most of the season. In those four losses, the Pirates were outscored 29-11 and none of the games were one-run games. I like the Nationals here.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, August 15

DAVE COKIN

ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS AT MIAMI MARLINS
PLAY: ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS +125

Let’s get the bad news out of the way right at the top. The Diamondbacks are a lousy team, three of the four best hitters they had against lefties are either injured or traded and this team has logged a load if innings the last couple of days. So I can completely understand how lots of bettors are going to look at the Marlins as the side to play tonight.

But one of my deals is that I like to jump on pitchers who suddenly seem to find their rhythm after struggling, and we’ve got one such hurler going tonight as Trevor Cahill will get the start for the Snakes. Cahill was once a very highly regarded young pitcher, but he has fallen upon hard times since leaving Oakland. Things bottomed out for Cahill earlier this season as he found himself back in the minors attempting to relocate his stuff. It’s small sample to be sure, but Cahill has gotten things together of late. His last couple of starts have been reminiscent of what he used to be with the Athletics.

The general consensus with Cahill’s problems have been that it’s mechanical. I can’t disagree with that, as it really wasn’t difficult to spot how much trouble he was having repeating his release point. That was leading to poor command and it was pretty much a domino effect from there. But from what I’m now hearing and reading, the bigger problem for Cahill was between the ears. He just lost his confidence and everything seemed to spiral out of control from there.

It at least appears as though Cahill might be getting it back together. He’s looked really good in his last couple of outings, and he’s once more pounding the strike zone with a hard two-seam fastball that when it’s right, will generate lots of ground balls as well as a decent number of strikeouts.

Cahill will be opposed by lefty Brad Hand, who has been sort of a pleasant surprise for Miami, but is off a very rough start. I’m not really bullish on Hand as anything more than a fifth starter or a bullpen resident. What I’m banking on here is that the most recent outing suggests a return to what I consider his normal form, which isn’t anything special.

Obviously, there’s some gamble here. The team I’m looking to play is pretty terrible and it’s not an ideal scheduling spot by any stretch. But I got that buy signal on Cahilla couple starts back. If he has indeed rediscovered his stuff, Cahill could be a very nice bargain until the numbers catch up. I think he’s worth a follow here at decent enough plus money, so my side here is with the Diamondbacks.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, August 15

LT Profits

Oakland Vs Atlanta
Pick: Under 7

When the Oakland Athletics first acquired Jason Hammel from the Cubs, he had some difficulty adjusting to life in the American League and was roughed up in his first starts for the A’s. However, he has regained his Chicago form by allowing a total of one run in 12 innings over his last two starts and he is now facing a National League opponent in the Atlanta Braves that he limited to two runs in seven innings earlier in the season. Atlanta’s starter Alex Wood should be able to keep pace though as he has a 3.08 ERA and 119 strikeouts in 117 innings vs. 33 walks despite his 8-9 record, and he comes off of a great outing vs. Washington where he allowed one run on five hits with 12 strikeouts in 7.1 innings. The ‘under’ is 7-3-2 in Wood’s last 12 home starts.

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