Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, August 4

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, August 4

Rob Veno   

Tampa Bay at Oakland
Play: Under 7

Even without knowledge of tonight’s home plate umpire at this time, compelled to play the percentages and grab a piece of under 7. Tampa Bay’s starter Alex Cobb has been peaking over his past six outings going 5-0 with a 2.65 ERA. Manager Joe Maddon described Cobb’s changeup during this span as “pretty spectacular” and Cobb has used it very successfully all season as an out pitch. He’s racked up 22 Ks in his last two starts and 39 over his last 37.1 IP with a 5:1 K:BB ratio. Cobb has also thrown extremely well against Oakland the last three seasons posting a 3-1 mark and 1.42 ERA against them including 6.2 innings of shutout ball earlier this season. With the A’s offense struggling a bit right now minus the bats of traded Yoenis Cespedes and injured Coco Crisp (could return during this series), Cobb figures to perform well in this spot. The Rays offense however should find things difficult tonight versus Jeff Samardzija who has posted a 0.82 WHIP and .203 opponents BAA in his five starts since joining Oakland. Tampa’s unfamiliarity with Samardzija is likely to be an advantage for the righty as well. Bullpens are in good shape here so a strong number of indicators point toward a low scoring affair.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, August 4

BONES BEST BETS

REDS @ INDIANS – UNDER 7
REDS @ INDIANS – First 5innings – UNDER 3.5

Lights out vs Lights out here tonight! Kluber has been sensational for months now (11-6, 2.61 ERA) but almost unhittable over his last 3 starts with 26.2 innings pitched, a 0.68 ERA, and an out of this world 0.49 WHIP! Simon owns a 7-2 road record, a 2.45 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP. All extremely impressive numbers for the Reds Allstar. Throwing in the first 5 under as well because we are getting tired of getting burned by these 9th inning meltdowns.

TIGERS  -120

Ever since Scherzer’s blowup against the Royals on June 17th, he has now put up 7 straight quality starts. Scherzer has allowed 3 runs just once in those past 7 starts with all others being either 1 or 2 runs allowed. He has also not lost since that June 17th start – he is 5-0 and has 2 no decision’s along the way.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, August 4

Andre Gomes

Detroit Tigers -123

I'm taking the Tigers in this contest as I have no problem in laying a small juice w/ Scherzer on the mound.

We have a rested DET bullpen (important factor w/ this DET team) as their SP's went deep during the weekend vs. COL: Verlander 8IP's, Porcello 8IP's and yesterday Anibal Sanchez went 7 IP's! On the other end, the Yankees are coming from a tiring "ESPN game" vs. rivals Red Sox in a game that last almost 4 hours. This is a potential letdown spot IMO.

One of our biggest plays of the season was w/ Scherzer in their last start (Run Line Play). My notes about him:

"They will throw Max Scherzer to the mound and I expect Scherzer to take care of the business. His 3.31 FIP & 3.18 xFIP numbers in this month are good but not great, but please note the level of his opponents in the month of July (Ranked teams vs. RHP's in this season):

LAA #8
CLE #4
LAD #5
TB #12

Yes, all top teams! Only the Rays aren't a top 10 offensive team vs. RHP's using season numbers, but I have no doubts that they are a top team right now - ranked #4 in the L30 days! Still, Scherzer managed to give his team a chance to win those games. He already has made 3 starts vs. CWS this season w/ great numbers of 2, 0 & 0 ER's allowed!"

Well, he didn't disappoint us: 7.0IP, 5H, 1ER, 6/1 K/BB ratio w/ nice 1.86 FIP & 2.75 xFIP! I expect him to be decent (once again) today.

On the other end, I've also made a play in NYY's B. McCarthy in his last but we had to sweat to win that play @TEX as he didn't fare well w/ 6.00 ERA + 4.81 FIP + 4.32 xFIP! Even though he has been solid lately, note that he has faced TEX 2x & CIN in his last 3 starts, we just can't compare them vs. DET's power offense! McCarthy's 17.3% HR/FB ratio is a potential problem tonight vs. DET power bats @NYY stadium, and the correlation of all these factors = Single Dime Play w/ Detroit tonight!

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, August 4

Line Catchers

LA Dodgers - 128

Zach Greinke will toe the rubber for the home side tonight and he has been dominant in 9 home starts in 2014, going 6-1 with a stingy 2.52 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. Greinke has allowed just 1 ER in his last 15 IP, earning wins against the Giants and Braves in his last 2 outings.

Garrett Richards gets the nod for the Angels tonight and has had a great season up to now, he is 11-4 with a 2.74 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. The Angels however are just 1-5 in Richards’ last 6 outings as a road underdog.

The Dodgers are 32-16 in games following a loss this season and I believe they are showing good value tonight with Greinke on the mound.

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