Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, July 27

Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, July 27

DUNKEL INDEX

MLB

LA Dodgers at San Francisco
The Dodgers look to follow up last night's 5-0 win over the Giants and come into tonight's contest with a 15-4 record in Hyun-Jin Ryu's last 19 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game. LA is the pick (-110) according to Dunkel, which has the Dodgers favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-110).

Time Posted: 7:30 a.m. EST
Game 901-902: Washington at Cincinnati (1:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Fister) 14.997; Cincinnati (Latos) 15.817
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1; 6
Vegas Line: Washington (-125); 7
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+105); Under

Game 903-904 Arizona at Philadelphia (1:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Nuno) 14.961; Philadelphia (Hernandez) 13.475
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-125); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+105); Over

Game 905-906: NY Mets at Milwaukee (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (deGrom) 13.966; Milwaukee (Nelson) 15.475
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-140); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-140); Under

Game 907-908: St. Louis at Chicago Cubs (2:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Wainwright) 18.342; Cubs (Hendricks) 17.015
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-170); No Run Total
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-170); N/A

Game 909-910: LA Dodgers at San Francisco (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Ryu) 14.943; San Francisco (Peavy) 13.270
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-110); 7
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-110); Over

Game 911-912: Pittsburgh at Colorado (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Volquez) 13.870; Colorado (Morales) 14.995
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1; 11
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-135); 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+115); Over

Game 913-914: San Diego at Atlanta (5:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Stults) 15.756; Atlanta (Minor) 14.639
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-180); 7
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+160); Over

Game 915-916: Toronto at NY Yankees (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Happ) 15.558; NY Yankees (Greene) 14.255
Dunkel Line: Toronto 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-145); 9
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+125); Under

Game 917-918: Boston at Tampa Bay (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Webster) 15.176; Tampa Bay (Archer) 17.488
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 2 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 919-920: Chicago White Sox at Minnesota (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Carroll) 14.069; Minnesota (Pino) 15.566
Dunkel Line: Minnesota 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-135); 9
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-135); Over

Game 921-922: Cleveland at Kansas City (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Salazar) 17.231; Kansas City (Chen) 15.703
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-110); 9
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-110); Under

Game 923-924: Baltimore at Seattle (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Gonzalez) 15.556; Seattle (Elias) 14.512
Dunkel Line: Baltimore 1; 7
Vegas Line: Seattle (-130); 8
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+110); Under

Game 925-926: Oakland at Texas (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Kazmir) 16.313; Texas (Mikolas) 14.736
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Oakland (-200); 9
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-200); Over

Game 927-928: Detroit at LA Angels (3:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Porcello) 16.803; LA Angels (Santiago) 18.454
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-125); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-125); Over

Game 929-930: Miami at Houston (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (Turner) 15.571; Houston (McHugh) 14.106
Dunkel Line: Miami 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

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DUNKEL INDEX

WNBA

Chicago at Tulsa
The Sky head to Tulsa today to take on a Shock team that is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 home games. Chicago is the pick (+2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Sky favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+2 1/2)

Game 651-652: Minnesota at Connecticut (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 113.703; Connecticut 111.019
Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 2 1/2; 154
Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota by 5 1/2; 161
Dunkel Pick: Connecticut (+5 1/2); Under

Game 653-654: Atlanta at Washington (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 110.780; Washington 116.666
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 6; 151
Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta by 2 1/2; 157 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+2 1/2); Under

Game 655-656: Chicago at Tulsa (4:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 108.793; Tulsa 107.862
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 1; 155
Vegas Line & Total: Tulsa by 2 1/2; 162 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+2 1/2); Under

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Chase Diamond

Detroit Tigers vs. Los Angeles Angels
Play: Los Angeles Angels -104

This game features the 57-44 Tigers at the 62-41 Angels. I have hit every game in this series backing the Angels and will again today. This team is just on fire and there is no reason to lay off today. Public as usual is on the Tigers at a rate of 70% yet this line has not moved to much. Hector Santiago is 2-7 with a 4.02 ERA but is being given a second chance in the rotation today expect him to be highly motivated and the Tigers to just want to get on the bus and head to Baltimore.


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TJ Masterline

Oakland Athletics vs. Texas Rangers T    
Play: Oakland Athletics -1.5/-126

The Texas Rangers haven’t won a series since late June and have a chance to end that dubious fact when they host the Oakland Athletics on Sunday in the finale of a three-game set. Texas has lost 28 of its past 34 games after falling to the Athletics on Saturday and last won a series when it took two of three from the Minnesota Twins from June 27-29. Oakland bounced back from Friday’s series-opening loss by pounding four homers in Saturday’s 5-1 win. Athletics are 7-0 in Kazmirs last 7 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game. Athletics are 5-0 in Kazmirs last 5 starts during game 3 of a series. Athletics are 8-1 in Kazmirs last 9 starts with 4 days of rest. Athletics are 12-2 in Kazmirs last 14 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance. Athletics are 4-1 in Kazmirs last 5 starts following a team loss in their previous game. Athletics are 8-2 in Kazmirs last 10 starts as a road favorite. Athletics are 15-4 in Kazmirs last 19 starts as a favorite. Athletics are 15-4 in Kazmirs last 19 starts on grass. Athletics are 6-2 in Kazmirs last 8 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game. Athletics are 15-5 in Kazmirs last 20 starts. Rangers are 1-4 in their last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Rangers are 2-8 in their last 10 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game. Rangers are 4-22 in their last 26 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5. Rangers are 2-12 in their last 14 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. Rangers are 1-6 in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Rangers are 0-12 in their last 12 during game 3

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Rob Vinciletti

Oakland Athletics vs. Texas Rangers
Play: Oakland Athletics -180

Oakland has won 13 of 16 on Sunday and is averaging over 6.3 runs per game the past week. They are 10-1 this year as a road favorite off a road win where they scored 5 or more runs. Texas has lost 17 of 21 this month and 14 of the last 17 vs Winning teams. The Rangers are 0-4 as a home dog off a home loss where they scored 2 or less runs. There is also a Powerful 14-2 system that plays on road favorites like Oakland at -140 or higher that are off a road favored win at -140 or higher that scored 5 or more runs and are playing an opponent off a home dog loss that scored 2 or less runs on 5 or more hits. Oakland has Kazmir going and he has won 10 of 15 vs Texas and 8 of 11 on the road this year with a 3.15 road era. He will take on Texas right Mikolas who has an elevated 7.48 era in his starts this season. Look for Oakland to take this one.


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Jim Feist

Detroit Tigers at Los Angeles Angels
Pick: Detroit Tigers

Anaheim is a terrific offensive park and Detroit is 4th in baseball in runs scored, second in slugging, third in on base percentage. Starter Rick Porcello (12-5, 3.42 ERA) is on his way to 20 wins. He recently had a three game stretch allowing no runs! He has a 1.16 WHIP and will face the Angels, a team he held to just one run over seven innings the last time he faced them. He is 8-2 on the road this season with a 3.00 ERA. The Tigers are 13-3 in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a winning record. They face Hector Santiago (2-7), who walks far too many batters, so grab the first place visitors.

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Jesse Schule

Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants
Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers

After taking the first two games of this series in San Francisco, the Dodgers now sit in sole possession of first place in the NL West, half a game up on the Giants. Don Mattingly shuffled his rotation to allow his top three pitcher's to start here in this series, with Greinke going first, followed by Kershaw and Ryu. Bruce Bochy didn't seem to think this series means anymore than any other, saying: "I don't know what's not a big game," Ryu (11-5, 3.39 ERA) allowed a pair of runs on five hits over seven innings in a win on the road in Pittsburgh his last time out. He's thrived away from L.A., going 7-2 with a 2.73 ERA in 10 starts. He was flawless in his only trip to AT&T Park, tossing seven scoreless innings in a victory. The Giants hand the ball to Jake Peavy, who they acquired from Boston on Saturday. Peavy (1-9, 4.72 ERA) was rocked for five runs on eight hits over 6 1/3 innings in a loss to Toronto his last time out. Adrian Gonzalez has seen Peavy when he was with the White Sox, and he's 4-for-11 with a pair of home runs in those meetings. Peavy is 1-6 with a 5.87 ERA on the road this year, and I believe a change of scenery will not be enough to correct all his issues.


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Marc Lawrence

Detroit Tigers at Los Angeles Angels
Pick: Detroit Tigers

Edges - Tigers: Porcello 14-3 last seventeen team starts during July, and 5-1 team starts versus A.L. West this season. Angels: 0-3 versus A.L. Central behind Santiago, and 0-2 all-time in this series versus Porcello. With Porcello 8-2 with 2.79 ERA last ten away team starts, look for more of the same today. We recommend a 1-unit play on Detroit.

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Art Aronson

Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners    
Play: Seattle Mariners -115

In my opinion, the Mariners are an excellent pick here as the small favorite at home. The visiting Orioles will go with Miguel Gonzalez (5-5, 3.91 ERA) who is riding a hot stretch of games; the right-hander is 1-0 with a 1.90 ERA in three starts this month, pitching at least 7 2/3 innings in each outing. Gonzalez has allowed three earned runs or fewer in 14 of 16 starts, but the Orioles are only 8-8 in those games. The Mariners will respond with Roenis Elias who is coming off his best start of the season; the left-hander took advantage of an extended layoff and beat the Mets 5-2 on Monday in his first appearance in 12 days. He allowed one run and five hits over 5 1/3 innings while walking two and striking out eight before leaving with cramping in his left forearm. "The rest definitely helped," Elias mentioned after the start. "It especially helped seeing my son and my wife. It gave me more energy to go forward as the season goes along." It is the end of a challenging road trip for the Orioles and I think they will be happy to get home at .500. Consider taking the home team here with great value.


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Scott Spreitzer

Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins    
Play: Minnesota Twins -128

Minnesota gets "just what the doctor ordered" in my opinion in their attempt to snap a 3-game losing streak.  The Twins will face right-hander Scott Carroll, who, after a couple of decent starts in a row, fell-off for the third time in his last five starts.  Carroll allowed 5 earned runs and 13 base runners in just 5 IP.  He gives the Sox very little as far as innings worked which means the Twins have a good shot to get to the White Sox' 22nd ranked bullpen relatively early in this one.  Yohan Pino makes the start for the Twins and he has thrown a decent brand of baseball in his last four starts at home.  Pino held the Sox to 2 runs in 7 innings of work in a meeting in mid-June.  Chicago doesn't plate a lot of runs in road day action against righties and I expect more struggles in this one.  I'm recommending a play on the Twins on Sunday.

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Will Rogers

San Diego vs. Atlanta
Pick: Over

The Padres have earned a split in the first two games of this series in Atlanta, and with a pair of struggling pitchers facing off in the rubber match Sunday, it should be anybody's game. While the Padres look tempting as a dog, I think the OVER looks like a better bet.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - Eric Stults gets the call for San Diego, and he's having a nightmare of a season. Stults (3-12, 5.00 ERA) has surrendered six runs on 11 hits over 10 innings in back-to-back losses. He's been terrible on the road, with a record of 0-8, 5.87 ERA. Stults has given up a lot of home runs (20 in total), and four of those have come in his last two starts. The Braves counter with Mike Minor, who has been rocked for 12 runs on 21 hits over nine innings in his last two appearances.

2. The Long Ball - Both these pitchers have been victimized by the long ball, with Minor surrendering 10 homers in just eight starts at Turner Field this season, while Stults has allowed 14 home runs in 11 starts on the road.

3. X-Factor - The Braves have seen the total go over in 11 of Mike Minor's last 15 home starts.

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DAVE COKIN

ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS AT PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES
PLAY: ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS +100

There is something noteworthy about today’s game between the Diamondbacks and Phillies. It’s very possibly the final home game for one or more veteran Phillies. The trade deadline is near, and rumors galore are swirling. Aside from that, it’s 45-59 vs. 45-59, so this is about as meaningless as it gets for a late July baseball game.

The Phillies are not losing every game, but sometimes when watching this team, it’s a wonder they don’t. I’m not saying it’s all the time, but there are just too many games where the eye test suggests these guys are mailing it in. No emotion, no fire, just 25 guys showing up for work. I can almost envision a time clock just out of camera view where the players punch in and out before and after the game.

It’s not like the Diamondbacks are any great shakes, either. There’s going to be an overhaul taking place for the Snakes as well, but it’s not as dramatic as what I think we’re about to see in Philly. But the Diamondbacks have some young guys who are now playing most everyday and I can tell you from watching most of their games, there’s some enthusiasm with this entry. That’s not translating into lots of wins, as the talent just isn’t in place right now. But I at least like the energy.

Vidal Nuno starts for the road team today, and he’s strictly back of the rotation material. But Nuno isn’t necessarily the worst starting pitcher in action at Citizens Park today, as the former Fausto Carmona will be on the mound for Philly. Trying to guess which version of Roberto Hernandez will show up is a challenge, to put it mildly. When he’s locating that sinker, Hernandez can be pretty tough. But when he loses his command, that’s a different story. Of late, Hernandez has been closer to okay than mediocre, but that means little as far as figuring out what he’ll do today.

My take is that this is as dead even as a game can be on paper. But the intangibles spell out Arizona. The DBacks got a terrific extra inning win on Saturday night, and I really feel as though the Phillies clubhouse atmosphere today could be very somber. I’ll take the team I believe is going to be more excited to play today, and that’s the Diamondbacks.

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Primetime Insiders

LA Dodgers -110

Ryu verse the newly acquired Peavy.  We are very surprised to see this figure so low.  Ryu has only had one terrible performance this year and is very underrated especially on the road where he has a 7-2 record.  Peavy is moving to the National League which should help but he is not the same pitcher as he has been in the past and is going up against a very talented Dodgers roster

San Diego / Atlanta Under 7.5 

People might look at this matchup and immediately think the over as Stults is on the mound but we think there is a lot of value backing the under with Stults on the mound as they have been terrible since the break.  Stults has also had quite a bit of success against the Braves in the past owning an ERA south of 2.5 in 7 appearances. Minor is on the mound and he has not been anything special but is still underrated and is going up against the worst hitting team in baseball.  We have two very poor offensive teams taking the mound and to see this total sitting at 7.5 is a joke and we should exploit it!**

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Bob Balfe ‏

Detroit Tigers +110

The Tigers hit lefties well and the Angels hit well against right handed pitching. These teams are almost mirror images of each other, but I like how Porcello has pitched on the road this season. Look for the Tigers to make up for getting blanked yesterday. Take Detroit.

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Jeff Clement

Detroit Tigers vs. Los Angeles Angels
Play: Detroit Tigers -105

The Tigers are 8-2 last 10 Porcello road games and 8-2 last 10 road games as an underdog. The Angels are 2-9 last 11 Santiago starts against teams with winning records and 0-4 last 4 Santiago home starts as a favorite.

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Dave Price

New York Mets +126

The Mets have the edge on the mound with deGrom, who has a 3.01 ERA through his first 13 big-league starts.  He has allowed three earned runs or fewer in 11 of these 13 starts and has given up more than two runs just once in his last six starts.  He's been almost unhittable lately, going 3-0 with a 0.86 ERA over his last three starts.  Milwaukee's Nelson is 1-1 with a 5.06 ERA in three starts this season, including 0-1 with a 7.84 ERA in a pair of home starts.  The Brewers are a soft 17-36 in their last 53 Game 4's of a series and 2-6 in their last eight home games versus clubs with losing records.  The Mets are 5-2 in their last seven games following a loss.

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Greg Shaker

Kansas City +101

Neither of these throwers for today's game is anything to brag about but in the case of the Indians, they have struggled verses left handed pitching to the tune of just a 1.29 Runs Per 9 over their last 10 games played. In addition the KC Bullpen has been superb lately + the Royals after slumping a bit are winning games right now and getting good run production during the process. Cleveland has not been a good road proposition this year and have just 1 win in their last 7 tries. The small sample of Salazar's results verses KC (2 Starts 0-2, 6.97 ERA) is nothing but a Bonus here. We have handicapped this one with a much larger line than Books want us to believe and an easy decision for me.

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Tony George

Cleveland Indians vs. Kansas City Royals    
Play: Kansas City Royals -104

Kansas City grabbed victory from the Jaws of defeat on Saturday night, down 5-0 to rally to 7 unanswered runs, and even Billy Butler go in the act with a 2 run homer as KC downed the tribe with solid late pitching last night t9o seal the deal.

Today southpaw Bruce Chen takes the hill for the Royals, and with Chen you never know what you are going to get, however the KEY in this game is the Tribes inability to hit southpaws well, just .118 as a team their last 5 games.  Kansas City is dangerous when they have their bats going, and with high heat and humidity in KC today, I expect to see some long balls out of both teams and some scoring in this one. Salazar for Cleveland is 0-2 against KC his last 2 starts with almost a 7 ERA, and while his last start was a win, just his first start since May 15th, I think he will struggle today against a confident lineup.

Kansas City on a 5 game game winning streak and look for sweep the series here with a win, and put themselves just 4 games out of first place in the division, I like their chances at home today, they simply have the tribes number this season and the number is cheap.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, July 27

Jeff Alexander

San Francisco Giants +104

The Giants have already seen Ryu twice this season, and they put 8 runs on the board in 2 innings in one of those contests.  The Dodgers haven't seen Peavy since last season when he defeated them by giving up 1 run on 3 hits while going the distance.  Peavy is 14-2 with a 2.21 ERA in 25 starts versus the Dodgers, and his clubs are 15-3 in his last 18 starts against them.  The Giants are 8-3 in their last 11 after losing the first 2 games of a series and 18-4 in their last 22 Sunday games.  The Giants are also 12-6 in their last 18 versus the Dodgers.

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Michael Alexander

Cleveland Indians vs. Kansas City Royals
Play: Kansas City Royals +101

Salazar made his ninth start of the season - and first since May 15 - on Tuesday, notching the win after allowing one run and six hits over five innings at Minnesota. The 24-year-old Dominican has yielded three earned runs or fewer in each of his last five outings, going just 2-1 in that span. Salazar fell to 0-2 with a 6.97 ERA in two career turns against Kansas City on April 22, when he surrendered five runs - four earned - and seven hits in 4 1/3 frames.

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