Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, July 26

Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, July 26

DUNKEL INDEX

MLB

San Diego at Atlanta
The Padres look to follow up last night's 5-2 win in the opener and come into tonight's contest with a 7-1 record in their last 8 games versus the Braves. San Diego is the pick (+155) according to Dunkel, which has the Padres favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+155)

Game 951-952: St. Louis at Chicago Cubs (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Miller) 16.011; Cubs (Arrieta) 14.368
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-125); No Run Total
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+105); N/A

Game 952-954: Washington at Cincinnati (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Gonzalez) 15.615; Cincinnati (Cueto) 14.750
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1; 6
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-125); 7
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+105); Under

Game 955-956 Arizona at Philadelphia (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Collmenter) 16.244; Philadelphia (Lee) 14.774
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-150); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+130); Over

Game 957-958: San Diego at Atlanta (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Despaigne) 14.992; Atlanta (Teheran) 14.093
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 6
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-175); 7
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+155); Under

Game 959-960: NY Mets at Milwaukee (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Niese) 15.776; Milwaukee (Peralta) 14.664
Dunkel Line: NY Mets 1; 8
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-165); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+145); Over

Game 961-962: Pittsburgh at Colorado (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Locke) 14.577; Colorado (Matzek) 15.961
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1 1/2; 12
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-150); 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+130); Over

Game 963-964: LA Dodgers at San Francisco (9:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Kershaw) 16.337; San Francisco (Vogelsong) 13.785
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers 2 1/2; 5
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-180); 6
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-180); Under

Game 965-966: Toronto at NY Yankees (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Hutchison) 14.946; NY Yankees (Capuano) 16.397
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-140); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-140); Under

Game 967-968: Baltimore at Seattle (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Norris) 15.385; Seattle (Young) 13.935
Dunkel Line: Baltimore 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Baltimore (-115); 8
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-115); Under

Game 969-970: Boston at Tampa Bay (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Lackey) 15.262; Tampa Bay (Hellickson) 17.404
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 2; 9
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-125); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-125); Over

Game 971-972: Cleveland at Kansas City (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (McAllister) 13.546; Kansas City (Guthrie) 15.159
Dunkel Line: Kansas City 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-130); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-130); Under

Game 973-974: Chicago White Sox at Minnesota (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Sale) 16.752; Minnesota (Darnell) 13.436
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 3 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-170); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (-170); Under

Game 975-976: Oakland at Texas (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Gray) 16.921; Texas (Tepesch) 14.497
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 2 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Oakland (-180); 9
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-180); Over

Game 977-978: Detroit at LA Angels (9:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Verlander) 16.818; LA Angels (Shoemaker) 15.471
Dunkel Line: Detroit 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Detroit (-115); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-115); Over

Game 929-930: Miami at Houston (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (Koehler) 15.268; Houston (Cosart) 13.536
Dunkel Line: Miami 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Houston (-125); 8
Dunkel Pick: Miami (+105); Over

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DUNKEL INDEX

CFL

Toronto at Saskatchewan
The Roughriders host a Toronto team that is 0-3-1 ATS in its last 4 road games. Saskatchewan is the pick (-6) according to Dunkel, which has the Roughriders favored by 11. Dunkel Pick: Saskatchewan (-6)

Game 125-126: Ottawa at Hamilton (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Ottawa 104.243; Hamilton 116.131
Dunkel Line: Hamilton by 12; 44
Vegas Line: Hamilton by 4 1/2; 48
Dunkel Pick: Hamilton (-4 1/2); Under

Game 127-128: Toronto at Saskatchewan (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 107.401; Saskatchewan 118.317
Dunkel Line: Saskatchewan by 11; 54
Vegas Line: Saskatchewan by 6; 50
Dunkel Pick: Saskatchewan (-6); Over

WNBA

Indiana at San Antonio
The Fever head to San Antonio tonight and come into the contest with a 5-1 ATS record in their last 6 road games. Indiana is the pick (+1 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Fever favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Indiana (+1 1/2)

Game 601-602: Los Angeles at Seattle (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Los Angeles 110.869; Seattle 113.376
Dunkel Line & Total: Seattle by 2 1/2; 142
Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles by 4; 148
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+4); Under

Game 603-604: Indiana at San Antonio (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 113.818; San Antonio 112.715
Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 1; 144
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 1 1/2; 151 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (+1 1/2); Under

Game 605-606: New York at Phoenix (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New York 109.587; Phoenix 125.907
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 16 1/2; 164
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 11 1/2; 158 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-11 1/2); Over

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DAVE COKIN

DETROIT TIGERS AT LOS ANGELES ANGELS
PLAY: LOS ANGELES ANGELS -113

What a difference a few months can make. If someone had told me in April that I could get underdog on Justin Verlander opposing Matt Shoemaker, I’d have been racing to my screen to start blasting away with every out available. Perennial ace against fringe big leaguer at plus money? Sign me up!

Now here it is late July and I’m looking at Shoemaker being a small favorite and thinking that the line is actually a little bit short of where it rightfully should be.

Verlander is clearly not the same pitcher we’ve grown accustomed to seeing over the past several years. I can’t determine whether this is still part of an ongoing recovery from his off-season surgery or simply a diminishment of skills. But that really doesn’t matter. The fact is that Verlander has been nothing more than ordinary this season, and there’s nothing I can see to suggest a surge is imminent.

As for Shoemaker, he continues to be a revelation of sorts. There was simply nothing in his minor league resume to suggest he could thrive in the show, much less while owning a spectacular 1.9/9.3 BB/K ratio. But those are the numbers, and if you’ve watched this guy throw, you already know why he’s getting all those swings and misses. Shoemaker evidently discovered the splitter at some point, and that pitch has taken him from organizational filler to, if not a mainstay, a valuable piece in the Angels starting rotation.

I think the oddsmakers have finally adjusted to where Verlander is at this juncture, and there are no more bargains available for those fading him on a regular basis. But I still believe this price is a tad short. That’s more on the team data, however. The Halos are dominating their guests when playing in Anaheim and while the Tigers are a tough adversary with the best road record in baseball, the Angels are currently owners of the second best home record in the game and they’re getting better.

There’s a good chance we won’t see Josh Hamilton in the Angels lineup tonight, as he had to leave Friday’s game with an injury (a real shocker there, huh?) but I don’t consider his absence especially critical, as he hasn’t been productive lately anyway. I like the Soria pickup for the beleaguered Detroit pen, but still give the late inning advantage to the home team if this is tight. The lean here is definitely to the Angels to make it two straight over the Tigers.

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Rob Vinciletti

Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins
Play: Chicago White Sox -165

The Whitesox have their ace C. Sale going and they should sail in this one as Minnesota has Logan Darnell going tonight, fresh off a Triple AAA Call up where he good not great. Sale on the other had has been Dominant on the road with a 2.27 era And his last 3 starts overall he has allowed 3 earned runs in 23 innings good for a 1.12 era. He is 5-1 vs the Twins. This game also fits a road warrior system that plays on road favorites in this range if the total is 8 or less and they are off a road win by 2 or more runs and scored 5 or more runs on 10+ hits and had no errors, vs an opponent like the Twins that are off a home loss and scored 5 or more runs. These road teams are 11-2 the past few years. Look for the Whitesox to win.


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Red Dog Sports

Los Angeles vs. Seattle
Play: Under 148½

Los Angeles is 0-2 with their new coach and now have to play at Seattle, who look to be without point guard Sue Bird. The three meetings this year have reached 126, 122 and 149 points. The under has profited 19 of the last 26 meetings. Hopefully, Candace Parker and Ugwumike don't go wild for the Sparks on offense and we see a game in the low 140's that stays under.

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Jesse Schule

Arizona vs. Philadelphia
Pick: Arizona

The D'Backs have been terrible this season, but still their 23 road wins are two more than the Phillies have at home. After losing the series opener by a score of 9-5, Arizona is a significant underdog here in Game 2.

Cliff Lee will toe the slab for the home team, and he's coming off a tough outing. Lee (4-5, 3.67 ERA) was rocked for six runs on 12 hits over 5 2/3 innings in a home loss to the Giants his last time out. It was his first start in over two months, and he didn't look sharp. Paul Goldschmidt has just two hits in 10 career at bats versus Lee, but both of those were home runs.

Arizona will hand the ball to Josh Collmenter, who is having himself a very solid season. Collmenter (8-5, 3.64 ERA) has allowed just a pair of runs on 11 hits over 14 innings while going 1-0 in a pair of Arizona victories in his last two starts. He tossed six scoreless innings, allowing just four hits in a win over the Phillies earlier this season.

We get a decent price to back the visitors here considering the questions surrounding the status of Cliff Lee since he's come off the DL.


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Dana Lane

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs    
Play: St. Louis Cardinals +109 

Despite a 7-8 record, Cardinals starter Shelby Miller has been stellar when the Cardinals are coming off a loss. In Miller's last ten starts after a Cardinal loss the Redbirds are 7-3. He will be asked to stop the Cardinals first four game losing streak of the season against the Cubs who typically have difficulty putting together back to back wins. In Chicago's last 69 games following a win they are 22-47 .319. Miller has not allowed a run in two appearances against Chicago spanning 5.2 innings.  The Cubs are one of the worst hitting teams in baseball (.238, 29th) and I don't see them having sustained success against one of baseball's best pitching staff.  This is an extremely winnable and important series to the Cardinals whom have fallen 3 games back of Milwaukee. The Cubs are 2-5 since the All-Star break and were outscored 21-6 in their last 2 games against the San Diego Padres, who are last in Major league baseball in hitting (.218). Chicago is 4-13 since the trade of Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel to the Oakland Athletics. Despite the success of Cubs starter Jake Arietta (5-2 2.12era) I'm going to bet that this will be the Cardinals best effort of the series and at a plus price I can't resist.

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Bryan Power

Oakland vs. Texas
Pick: Oakland

This is a matchup of the best vs. worst teams in MLB. Therefore, I simply can't see the last place Rangers beating the first place A's for a second straight night.  Texas pulled off a surprise 4-1 win as +165 dogs Friday.  It was just their 6th win in the L33 games and 1st at home this month. Oakland is still 22.5 games ahead of them in the AL West and has a 63-39 record w/ a run differential of +160, which is more than double of every other team but one (Angels).

Sonny Gray is another reason to like the A's here. The team has won each of his L6 starts.  Over the L3, he has a 0.84 ERA and 0.890 WHIP, both of which are obviously outstanding.  That's also a far cry from the recent numbers of today's Rangers starter Nick Tepesch, who has a 7.72 ERA & 1.592 WHIP his L3 starts.

When these teams played last month, the Rangers took the series opener as well. Then Oakland won the next two games.

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Marc Lawrence

Washington Nationals at Cincinnati Reds
Prediction: Washington Nationals

Edges - Nationals: 5-0 vs N.L. Central behind Gonzalez this season. Reds: 0-4 vs N. L. East behind Cueto this season. With Gonzalez 3-2 with a 1.00 ERA in his career team starts versus Cincinnati - including 3-0 the last three - we recommend a 1-unit play on Washington.

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JR O'Donnell

Pittsburgh Pirates -145

Pittsburgh Pirates behind Locke who checks into the ballgame tonight @ 2.38 ERA and 0.99 WHIP and these Pirates will get to Rockies hurler Matzek and the Rockies have a terrible bull pen... Close to a 9 ERA.. let's lay the -140 as the Pirates will roll the Colo Rockies..

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Nick Parsons

Indians vs. Royals
Play: Over 8½

Based on current form, the starters in tonight's Indian/Royals matchup are going to be missising a lot of bats. The Tribe's Zach McAllister is 1-5 with a 7.75 ERA in his last eight starts. Jeremy Guthrie is 0-3 with an 8.44 ERA in his L4. Both starters have career ERAs of over 5.00 vs tonight's opponent and the high is 29-15 L 44 in the series making the over worth a look.

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Raphael Esparza

Saskatchewan -6

Both teams are coming off back-to-back losses and both teams’ defenses have been poor. I’m looking at the revenge factor here as Toronto beat the Roughriders in Toronto 48-15 and Toronto jumped on them early and by halftime the score was 17-1. The Roughriders will need to jump on Toronto early and make them play from behind on the road as Toronto doesn’t play well away from home. Toronto has dropped five out of their last six games, and Saskatchewan has won four out of six games. I think both of those trends will continue and my money will be with the Roughriders.

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Bob Balfe

LA Angels -115

Justin Verlander has not been impressive this year and this is a Angels team that is great against right handed pitching and excellent at home. Look for the Angels to get to Verlander early today. Take Los Angeles.

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William Holloway

Brewers -150

Peralta has won his last two starts while allowing just two runs – one earned – and six hits over 14 innings. Meanwhile Jonathon Niese has struggled since coming off the disabled list. After the blown win by the Brewers last night in front of the home crowd, they should come out strong!

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MLB Predictions

Padres / Braves Under 7

Odrisamer Despaigne will start for the Padres with an extra days rest after flirting with a no-hitter his last time out. He pitched 7.2 innings giving up 2 hits and 1 earned run. He is now 2-1 on the season with a 1.31 ERA, .177 OBA and 0.90 WHIP over 5 starts. In 2 road starts he has a 1.29 ERA as he has given up just 2 runs over 14 innings of work. The Braves will counter with Julio Teheran who is 9-6 with a 2.64 ERA, .221 OBA and 1.03 WHIP. At home he is a stellar 3-1 with a 1.23 ERA, .176 OBA and 0.79 WHIP. After two poor road starts he came back home and went 7 innings allowing just 4 hits and 1 earend run with 11 strikeouts and just one walk his last time out. Take note that the UNDER is 34-15-2 in the Padres last 51 overall, 5-1-1 in their last 7 games vs a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15, 4-1 in Despaigne's 5 starts, and 48-22-4 in their alst 74 games as an underdog. The UNDER is 7-1-1 in the Braves last 9 games vs a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15, 20-6 in Teheran's last 26 home starts, and 11-0 in his last 11 starts as a home favorite of -151 to -200. The UNDER is also 32-13-1 in Teheran's last 46 starts overall and 9-4-1 in his last 14 starts pitching with 4 days rest. With the stats sites having last night's game being graded a push because some bookies closed with a totla of 7 (-135) the UNDER is 21-5-3 in these two teams last 29 meetings in Atlanta. I'm on the UNDER.


Nationals / Reds Under 7

As predicted, the Reds' offense was atrocious. Some of it was due to the effort of Tanner Roark, but a lot of it was because of their lineup. They managed only 1 run on 3 hits. Without Phillips and Votto around much of the same should continue to happen. I said in my last writeup the Reds have two solid players currently healthy, the one being Alfredo Simon and the other the starter today, Johnny Cueto. We've expected this type of production out of Cueto who enters this afternoon with a 2.18 ERA and 0.93 WHIP. His numbers are even better at home, where in that respect his ERA slides down to 1.93 with a WHIP and OBP of only 0.79 and .224. Cueto last allowed more than 3 runs on June 6th nine starts ago against the Phillies. He should be able to handle the Nationals today at home after a rough outing against them on the road a couple of months ago. His pitching counterpart, Gio Gonzalez, hasn't been amazing but he should be able to look amazing against these Reds' hitters. I noted yesterday that the Reds have average 1.8 runs in their last five games, well that number goes down due to the 1 run they scored last night. Gonzalez hasn't been bad either, just good, not great. He's been good in his last three starts with a 3.00 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. Gonazlez went a stretch between June 23rd-July 5th where he allowed no runs and only 9 hits in those three games. He followed it up by allowing 3 runs in each of his last two games, so he is turning it around after a poor start. He'll be able to take advantage of the anemic Reds' offense today going opposite to Cueto. I loved getting the hook on last nights number as I thought the line should have been 7. I still like the total of 7 today in which I'll be playing the UNDER 7.

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LT Profits
Detroit vs L.A. Angels
Pick: Under 8.5

After cashing the ‘under’ in the matchup between the Detroit Tigers and Los Angeles Angels Friday, we are coming right back with it again. It is no secret that Justin Verlander is a mere shell of what he once was for the Tigers at 9-8 with a 4.84 ERA and 1.45 WHIP, but he has shown glimpses of his old self lately while posting four Quality Starts in his last six starts with a nice ratio in those outings of 32 strikeouts vs. eight walks. And all Tiger starters now have some support with the acquisition of closer Joakim Soria, who has yet to make his Detroit debut. Matt Shoemaker has allowed three earned runs or less in eight of his 10 starts for the Angels while going 7-3 with 72 strikeouts vs. 15 walks in 69.1 innings. The ‘under’ is 7-1 in the Tigers’ last eight games vs. teams with winning records.

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Greg Shaker

Nationals / Reds Under 7

The weather in Cincy is somewhat conducive to a higher than normal score but I promise you that has been factored into the betting number here for this game. We do have a better than average ump working the balls and strikes 2 much better than average starters working this game, and a Reds team that is having trouble plating runs. The Bonus here is that Cueto has been Marvo at this park this year with an ERA well under 2 and a WHIP Under .80. These things and others make this an easy choice for us in this afternoon contest.

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Matt Fargo

Detroit Tigers vs. Los Angeles Angels    
Play: Detroit Tigers +111

Los Angeles won a pitcher's duel last night to even the series at a game apiece but I expect the Tigers to bounce back with a victory tonight. The Angels are just 3-4 over their last seven games but were able to pick up a game on Oakland which lost at Texas last night. They have dropped three straight games following a win and the offense has been pretty listless since the break, averaging just 3.0 rpg over eight games. Detroit still has a six-game cushion in the American League Central and it has won four of its last six games despite the loss last night. The Tigers are 14-4 in their last 18 road games against teams with a winning record. Justin Verlander was great in April but has not been at his best since then. He is coming off a quality outing in his last start however, his fourth quality performance over his last six games. Seven of his 11 road games have been quality starts and the Tigers are 7-3 in Verlander's last 10 starts following a quality outing in his last start. The Angels counter with Matt Shoemaker who has been pretty solid since entering the rotation. He is coming off a poor outing against Baltimore however as he allowed four runs in 5.2 innings and that was his first start since July 3rd. He has made six home starts and while the Angels are 4-0 against teams with a losing record, they are 0-2 against winning teams in his two starts. Look for that trend to continue tonight.


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Tony George

Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins    
Play: Chicago White Sox -165

Chalky line here, more than I like to stretch it out but well worth the stretch here tonight as Chris Sale takes the hill going for his 10th win as he sits 9-1 on the year and his ERA 1.14 in his last 3 starts is better than his 2.03 season ERA, the guy is damn near unhittable and in great form. 

It is no  the Twins will not be able to hit him as Sale has allowed only 3 runs or less in his last 7 starts and the Twins struggle against southpaws.  Darnell comes up from Triple A ball to replace Kyle Gibson here so I do not expect him to beat Sale who is 301 at Target Field, and the Twins have dropped 6 out of their last 8 games.

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Jeff Alexander

San Francisco Giants +1½ +104

We'll take the Giants catching runs at plus money against a Dodgers club they have defeated 12 times in the last 17 meetings.  The Dodgers took Game 1 but are 2-5 in their last 7 following a win and on a 0-4 slide in the second game of a series.  Kershaw has been sensational, but the Dodgers have dropped his last two versus the Giants.  San Francisco has won each of Vogelsong's last 5 versus LA.  There's no doubt where the value lies in this one.  Bet the Giants on the run line.

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