MLB Betting News and Notes Saturday, July 26
MLB Betting News and Notes Saturday, July 26
Baseball Betting: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Washington at Cincinnati
Losing the opener of this series the Reds are still looking for their first post-All Star break victory. Reds try to snap the seven game losing streak with Johnny Cueto (10-6, 2.18 ERA) on the mound. The Nationals counter with Gio Gonzalez bringing a 6-5 record, 3.74 ERA to the hill. Given Gonzalez has hit a rough spot the past two giving up 7 runs over 10 innings of work and Cueto sports a 7-3 mark with a miniscule 1.93 ERA at Great American Ball Park along with a 4-1 team start stretch vs Nationals the Reds are a tempting proposition. However, a slumping team plating just 1.8 runs/game on 5.4 hits/game over it's skid is a good reason to walk away. That said, the safest choice in this game is an 'Under' play. Reds are 3-7 'Under' at home w/Cueto, 2-7 'Under' in the hurlers L9 July starts, 2-8 'Under' in his day games, 3-1-1 'Under' when he faces Washington. On the other side, Nationals are 6-2 'Under' when Gonzalez pitches on the road, 8-1 'Under' last 9 away against a team with a winning home record.
San Diego at Atlanta
The 'Under' has been the right choice when Braves' Julio Teheran starts at home (6-20 O/U). Teheran gets the ball in Atlanta Saturday when his club takes on offensively challenged Friars an 'Under' players dream on the road (14-33-2 O/U). Another positive for 'Under' gamblers, the series is 5-21-2 O/U last 28 meetings in Atlanta.
Los Angeles at San Francisco
The second of a pivotal three-game series between the top two clubs in the NL West is Saturday's baseball betting focus as Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco Giants square off in AT&T Park. The Dodgers send Clayton Kershaw to the mound carrying an 11-2 record, 1.92 ERA to the hill. The left-hander in great form is ridding a perfect 9-0 team start record allowing 2 or less runs in eight of the nine trips to the mound. Kershaw will be matching pitches with Giants’ Ryan Vogelsong, who has a 5-7 record, 3.99 ERA. In contrast, the Giants' right-hander is struggling posting a 1-5 record the past eight with San Francisco 2-6 over the span. The starters coming into the game from opposite ends of the spectrum is bad new for Giants. The fact Kershaw is a southpaw is another reason Giants take a step backwards, as they club is just 3-8 last 11 vs a left-handed starter. A few other telling baseball betting nuggets that favor Los Angeles in this one. Dodgers have won 15 of Kershaw's last 19 July starts, have won 7 of his 8 road starts this season and have won 6 of his last 8 tossing in San Francisco.
Re: MLB Betting News and Notes Saturday, July 26
MLB Odds and Picks
By: Micah Roberts
The plan that Dodgers manager Don Mattingly hatched during the All-Star break is one-third of the way a smashing success after last night's 8-1 win at San Francisco, which brought the Dodgers within a half-game of the first-place Giants.
Rather than start his second-half rotation with last night's winner, Zack Greinke, or tonight's starter, Clayton Kershaw, Mattingly opted to use Dan Haren at St. Louis so he would be able to go all-in with his full pitching arsenal in this pivotal series at San Francisco.
Meanwhile, Giants manager Bruce Bochy played it straight-up by not altering anything in his rotation. The Giants are in first place; they have won championships in even-numbered years (2010, 2012); and they had beaten the Dodgers in seven of 10 before last night. So why let the Dodgers know you're gunning for them by matching moves with Mattingly on the chess board?
The problem for Bochy and the Giants now is that his rotation is at the tail end with Ryan Vogelsong starting tonight against baseball's best pitcher and Yusmeiro Petit starting tomorrow night against Hyun-jin Ryu. If the Dodgers complete the sweep, that's a three-game swing in the standings.
Mattingly found this series important, Bochy didn't, and we'll see where the chips fall after tomorrow night. The Dodgers are big favorites to complete the sweep because of the pitching matchups, including Kershaw (11-2, 1.92 ERA) being a -192 favorite tonight.
On Sunday night at St. Louis, when Kershaw gave up three earned runs, we were all a little shocked because we hadn't seen him give up more than one run in his previous seven starts -- all wins. The Dodgers have won his last nine starts, while he's gone 8-0 with a 1.06 ERA in that span.
That is quite a roll Kershaw is on, and when looking at what Vogelsong (5-7, 3.99) has done lately -- 0-4 with 3.58 ERA in his past five starts -- you could argue the price on Kershaw is rather cheap. But one thing you have to like about Vogelsong is what he did in two starts against the Dodgers earlier this season. Vogelsong isn't that same pitcher anymore, but he allowed only two runs in 13.1 innings, and the Giants won both games.
The Dodgers have gone 13-9 all-time against the Giants behind Kershaw, including a 7-4 loss on May 11 (Kershaw no-decision), while the Giants are 9-4 all-time behind Vogelsong against the Dodgers. So, while Kershaw is currently on an amazing roll, he did show some vulnerability last week when he admitted he had no idea where the ball was going. Then you mix in his history against the Giants, and laying -192 doesn't sound so easy anymore. Laying -1.5 on the run-line would be even crazier.
However, the one area that has proved to be profitable for bettors in this series when Kershaw pitches is the UNDER, which has occurred in 16 of his 21 career starts against them. Vogelsong's starts against the Dodgers have stayed UNDER in 10 of his 13 starts, including both outings this season.
The total in tonight's game is 6.5 and while the Dodgers pounded out 15 hits last night, they have stayed UNDER the total in four of Kershaw's last five starts. The main play tonight is the UNDER.
Dodgers/Giants UNDER 6.5 (-115)
Reds (Johnny Cueto) -115 vs. Nationals
Padres (Odrisamer Despaigne) +166 at Braves
Padres/Braves UNDER 7 (-115)
Pirates (Jeff Locke) -120 at Rockies
Rays (Jeremy Hellickson) +104 vs. Red Sox
Royals (Jeremy Guthrie) -105 vs. Indians
Tigers/Angels OVER 8.5 (-110)