Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, July 24

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, July 24

Bob Balfe

Atlanta Braves -125

This is a Miami team that is never good on the road and who has been silent with the bats as of late. This is actually a pretty good pitching matchup, but I favor the Braves bullpen more. The only way I see Miami winning is in a very low scoring game. If Atlanta can plate 3 or more runs they have a really good shot. Take the Braves.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, July 24

Triple Threat Sports

Kansas City at Cleveland
Play: Kansas City

Have to fade Kluber here as he is off 8.2 innings pitched & 114 pitches, matching his season high. Last time he threw that many he lasted only 4.2 innings, gave up 8 hits, walked 4, & allowed 3 earned runs in his next outing. Foe Duffy has gotten just 1 run of support in each of L/3 starts and that is why he is 0-3 in that span. Public will be all over 3-0 L/3 Kluber vs 0-3 L/3 Duffy, but there is a reason the line is where it is, and the view here is that the Royals are the play in this one!

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, July 24

MP Sports

Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves
Play: Atlanta Braves -25

The first two games of this series were drama-filled affairs won in dramatic fashion by the Marlins, with one being in extra innings. The third game was a blowout victory for Atlanta, aided by a timely Freddie Freeman home run. Tonight, the Braves look to gain a 2-2 split in this series by sending Aaron Harang and his 9-6 record to the mound. The Marlins counter with Henderson Alvarez, who has followed up last year’s breakout season with an equally impressive series of performances so far this season and an All-Star appearance. However, there are several reasons to value Atlanta tonight:

1. Aaron Harang’s resurgence. After spending several years bouncing between teams and struggling mightily, Harang seems to have found himself in Atlanta. His 3.55 FIP is comparable to Alvarez’s 3.32.

2. Henderson Alvarez’s alarming lack of strikeouts. Alvarez averages only 5.5 K/9, an exceedingly low rate for an effective starting pitcher. He minimizes walks, sure, but pitching to contact and being willing to allow hits is not generally a strategy that works against top teams.

3. Deflated number. This game opened at -159 and has fallen as low as -122. This downward plunge has created a ton of value on the favored Braves on their home field. The opening number may have initially favored Miami, but Atlanta is the way to go now.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, July 24

Primetime Insiders

San Diego / Chicago Under 7.5

Surprised to see this game still at 7.5. We thought for sure this would move down to 7 but will take the hook. The wind is blowing in tonight in Wrigley and it may seem on the surface that it is not a pitchers duo but both pitchers are actually very good according to our system. Both are very underrated especially Jackson. This is a great opportunity for a bounce back performance and it should come today against a very poor hitting Padres team. Ross has been one of the bright spots for Padres with an ERA south of 3 and even though the Cubs bats have been strong of late he should be able to keep them in check. This should truly sail under the total of 7.5 with no issues.

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