Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, July 17

Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, July 17

DUNKEL INDEX

CFL

Edmonton at Winnipeg
The Eskimos head to Winnipeg on Thursday night where they are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against the Blue Bombers. Winnipeg is the pick (-2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Blue Bombers favored by 11 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Winnipeg (-2 1/2).

Game 421-422: Edmonton at Winnipeg (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Edmonton 104.229; Winnipeg 115.543
Dunkel Line: Winnipeg by 11 1/2; 59
Vegas Line: Winnipeg by 2 1/2; 55
Dunkel Pick: Winnipeg (-2 1/2); Over

FRIDAY, JULY 18

Game 423-424: Toronto at Ottawa (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 111.823; Ottawa 104.792
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 7; 48
Vegas Line: Toronto by 2 1/2; 52 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-2 1/2); Under

Game 425-426: Hamilton at Calgary (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Hamilton 108.052; Calgary 124.101
Dunkel Line: Calgary by 16; 53
Vegas Line: Calgary by 9; 49
Dunkel Pick: Calgary (-9); Over

SATURDAY, JULY 19

Game 427-428: Montreal at BC (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Montreal 109.068; BC 116.387
Dunkel Line: BC by 7 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: BC by 5; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: BC (-5); Under

WNBA

Connecticut at Phoenix
The Sun head to Phoenix tonight to face a Mercury team that is 7-0-1 ATS in its last 8 home games. Phoenix is the pick (-11 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Mercury favored by 15 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-11 1/2).

Game 651-652: San Antonio at Tulsa (12:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 114.401; Tulsa 112.582
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 2; 164
Vegas Line & Total: Tulsa by 2; 160
Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (+2); Over

Game 653-654: Chicago at Indiana (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 109.699; Indiana 110.146
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 147
Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 4 1/2; 152 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+4 1/2); Under

Game 655-656: Connecticut at Phoenix (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Connecticut 108.503; Phoenix 123.754
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 15 1/2; 163
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 11 1/2; 159
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-11 1/2); Over

Game 657-658: Washington at Los Angeles (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 110.656; Los Angeles 119.324
Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 8 1/2; 150
Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles by 7; 154 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (-7); Under

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Red Dog Sports

Connecticut vs. Phoenix
Play: Under 159

This is the last game before the WNBA All-Star Game. Last year there were all unders on the last day. Connecticut has 8 unders in its last 10 while Phoenix has 6 unders in the last 8 and the last 4 reached 168, 151, 138 and 136. These two played a 96-95 game earlier and the Sun made 10 3's so I expect the Mercury to focus on better defense and they do have 6'8" Griner inside. Free play on under 159

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Dana Lane

Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever    
Play: Chicago Sky +4½

A couple things the Indiana Fever (10-12) are not recently is a good rebounding team with a commitment to defense.  They continuously appear uninspired in the second half of games as evident by squandering their 7th game in 10, Tuesday to Los Angeles while leading in the second half by double digits. Tuesday marked the 8th time this season that Indiana has lost a double digit lead, losing six of those contest. Fever forward Tamika Catchings uses alarming words like 'buying in'. I won't rely on a bad that hasn't 'bought in' to cover 4.5 points. Especially when simple parts of the game are not being executed well.  You may not always be the best offensive team on a nightly basis but you certainly can always hustle, box out, and rebound. Chicago (8-13) has had their own turnover problems, committing 21 against Atlanta. Despite the sloppy basketball, Sylvia Fowles could have tied the game to force a second overtime but missed a layup as time ran out. Chicago has lost five in a row but seem to be closer as a team even as injuries have forced them to play shorthanded. Every Sky loss, during the streak, has been by single digits. The Sky are in a better place as a unit and will hand the Indiana their sixth straight ATS loss at home.

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Jim Feist

Edmonton vs Winnipeg
Pick: Over

Big battle on the CFL gridiron on Thursday as the two unbeatens in the West will see is tops after this one. Both Edmonton and Winnipeg are a perfect 3-0 to start the season and while Calgary is arguably the best team right now at 2-0, these two clubs are right behind. And the oddsmaker has pretty much called this one even as they have installed Winnipeg as a 2 1/2 point home favorite, which is even on a neutral site. Which is why my free play is on the OVER here. Winnipeg has scored 115 points in three games (38.3 ppg), by far the most in the CFL thus far. Moreover, the Blue Bombers have gone OVER in eight of their last 11 home games and are 4-1 Over/Under in their last five games overall. Edmonton has been a great over road team, posting a 12-3-1 over/under/push mark in their last 16 away games. And they are 5-2 over/under their last seven overall. This one has the markings of a good old fashioned CFL shootout.

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Art Aronson

Washington Mystics vs. LA Sparks    
Play: Washington Mystics +7½

The Mystics are bit undervalued in this situation. Washington (9-13) is looking to bounce back off a 90-78 loss at the Phoenix Mercury. Monique Currie had 19 points and four rebounds to lead the Mystics, who had won back-to-back road games prior to the loss. Bria Hartley scored 15 points while Ivory Latta added 13 for Washington. The Los Angeles Sparks (10-11) are coming off an 86-78 win over Indiana, Candace Parker scored 17 of her season-high 34 points in the third quarter to help in the rally. The Mystic come in as fairly large underdogs, but I think they have a good shot at the outright win. As mentioned above, Washington had won two in row before battling hard against the top team in the Western Conference in Phoenix. Los Angeles is coming off a very successful road trip where it went 3-1, and as we know, the first game back home is always a prime spot for a letdown. Washington beat LA 92-81 earlier in the season in an epic three overtime game. Rookie Bria Hartley paced four double-digit scorers with a season-high 20 points for the Mystics in that contest. Note that Washington is 8-4 ATS the last 12 meetings between these teams, while Los Angeles is just 3-6 SU and ATS in home games this season. I look for Washington to at least earn an ATS cover in this game.


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SPORTS WAGERS

Edmonton +2½ over WINNIPEG

The Montreal Alouettes have had a tough time moving five yards but what they did to Winnipeg last week should not be ignored as a poor outing for the Bombers. It emphasized Winnpeg's big time flaws that were already exposed. The Als scored 33 points and racked up 411 yards of total offense. They outgained Winnipeg in net yards by 105. It took Winnipeg two defensive TD’s, not to mention a third and goal from the 15-yard line late in the fourth, and a couple of fortuitous bounces to escape with a one point win in Montreal. The Bombers also fell behind 14-points to the Redblacks the previous week before another late rally. Winnipeg deserves credit for finding ways to win but you can’t keep giving up massive yards every week and expect to win. Not only is Winnipeg giving up big yards in the air, they are also getting torched on the ground. The Bombers defense is getting shredded and things get a lot tougher here against Edmonton. Additionally, Winnipeg QB Drew Willy is not getting protection. He’s had his clock rung many times already and he’s getting up slower with each hit. Willy is taking some serious punishment back there and at some point it’s going to take a physical toll. You might see Willy getting rid of the ball sooner than he wants to in an attempt to avoid those bruising hits. Finally, Winnipeg has scored 45, 36 and 34 points respectively in its three games so far. However, the first two games were against the league’s weakest defenses in Toronto and Ottawa. Last week against Montreal, Winnipeg’s offense scored 20 points with the defense accounting for 14. Indeed the Bombers are 3-0 but their bubble is on the verge of bursting.

Edmonton’s résumé isn’t better in terms of strength of competition, as they defeated a lethargic B.C team in Week 1, a horrible Hamilton team in Week 2 and a lifeless Ottawa team in Week 3. However, the Eskies play outstanding defense and in fact, has only allowed a total of 55 points against in three weeks. Edmonton’s front four leads the CFL in sacks and hurries and should absolutely overpower a Winnipeg pass protection that’s already caused Willy to be sacked 10 times. Offensively, Edmonton has scored 27, 28 and 27 points respectively and while that’s not going to get a win every week, it’s more than adequate and they figure to get even better. Quarterback Mike Reilly has completed 67.6 % of his passes for 738 yards with seven touchdowns against just two interceptions, leading to an impressive 100.8 passer rating. Edmonton has the better personnel. They are vastly superior on both lines and defensively it’s not even close. Offensively, we’re also suggesting that the Eskimos can match anything the Bombers can do but the difference is Mike Reilly is getting protection while Drew Willy is not. This league is not like the NFL and college where single points do not occur and two-point safeties are rare. They are common in this league and that makes these 2½-points worth taking as oppose to playing Edmonton on the money line. We’re calling the upset but will take the points.

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LA Syndicate

Tulsa -130 ML

Indiana -4 -120

Connecticut +12 -120

Los Angeles/Washington Over 153.5

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H&H Sports

2* Winnipeg/Edmonton Under 55

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Sports Nostradamus

Edmonton +2

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Brandon Watson

Winnipeg -2.5

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Chicago Syndicate

Indiana -4.5

Edmonton/Winnipeg Under 55

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