CFL Betting News and Notes Week 4

CFL Betting News and Notes Week 4

CFL Betting Notes - Week 4
By David Schwab
VegasInsider.com

The run from worst to first for both Winnipeg and Edmonton continued into Week 3 of the new CFL regular season. The Blue Bombers outlasted Montreal last Friday 34-33 as three-point road underdogs to remain perfect on the year at 3-0 both straight-up and against the spread. The total in that game went OVER the closing 48½-point line. The Eskimos improved to 3-0 SU with a 27-11 victory over Ottawa in Friday’s other game as five-point home favorites. That total stayed UNDER the 53-point line.

This past Saturday’s double-header started with Calgary running all over Toronto 34-15 as a two-point favorite on the road. The total stayed UNDER a closing betting line of 55 points in that contest. Week 3 closed things out with British Columbia snapping a two-game skid with a 26-13 victory over defending Grey Cup Champion Saskatchewan as a five-point underdog on the road. The total in this game also stayed UNDER with the closing line set at 51½ points.

Thursday, July 17

Edmonton Eskimos (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) vs. Winnipeg Blue Bombers (3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS)


Point-Spread: Winnipeg -3
Total: 55

Game Overview

The Eskimos are now just one win away from matching last season’s SU total behind a re-tooled defense that is allowing an average of just 18.3 points a game after giving-up close to 29 points a game in 2013. They also have the league’s third-leading passer in quarterback Mike Reilly (738 yards) and second- leading receiver in total yards in slotback Adarius Bowman. He has posted 284 yards on 21 receptions.

Winnipeg has already reached last season’s three-win total SU and it has been a perfect bet this season ATS. The Blue Bombers continue to light-up the scoreboard with a CFL-high 115 points behind quarterback Drew Willy. He threw for 256 yards and one touchdown in last Friday’s win over the Alouettes while completing 24-of-38 attempts.

Betting Trends

While Winnipeg was still a member of the East Division, it went 4-1 ATS against Edmonton in the last five meetings at home and the total has stayed UNDER in 11 of the last 16 meetings at Investors Group Field. The home team is 9-1 SU in the last 10 games between these two.

Friday, July 18

Toronto Argonauts (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS) vs. Ottawa RedBlacks (0-2 SU, 0-2 ATS)


Point-Spread: Toronto -2½
Total: 52½

Game Overview

It has been a tale of two teams when it comes to the defending East Division Champs with a solid 33-point victory over Saskatchewan in Week 2 wrapped around losses to Winnipeg and Calgary by a combined 43 points. Argonauts’ quarterback Ricky Ray leads the CFL in passing yards with 982 while completing an impressive 75.7 percent of his throws, but he is having a hard time keep pace with a Toronto defense that is allowing an average of 31.3 points a game. The league’s newest franchise has looked like an expansion team in its first two games, but that was to be expected. Longtime CFL veteran quarterback Henry Burris struggled against the Eskimos last week with 134 yards passing and no scores while completing just 52 percent of his throws. The RedBlacks have averaged 19.5 points in their first two games.

Betting Trends

With no head-to-head Betting Trends in this matchup, bettors may look at Toronto’s 13-4-1 record ATS in its last 18 road games as a key trend for Friday’s game. The total has gone OVER in five of the Argonauts last seven road games and it has gone OVER in seven of their last 10 games following a SU loss.

Hamilton Tiger-Cats (0-2 SU, 1-1 ATS) vs. Calgary Stampeders (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS)

Point-Spread: Calgary – 9½
Total: 49

Game Overview

The Tiger-Cats enjoyed a much needed bye last week with the CFL’s new nine-team rotation after losing their first two games of the season SU. They did look much better in a tight four-point loss to Edmonton in Week 2 as opposed to 31-10 loss to Saskatchewan in their opener as 3½-point road underdogs. Quarterback Zach Collaros has been ruled out for this game with a lingering head injury.

Calgary could be the best balanced team in the CFL so far with an offense that has scored 63 points in two games complementing a defense that allowed a combined total of just 23 points to its opponents. Bo Levi Mitchell continues to look impressive as the Stampeders’ starting quarterback after lighting-up Toronto’s secondary for 267 yards passing and four touchdown throws in Week 3. Running back Jon Cornish remains questionable with a head injury as well.

Betting Trends

The Stampeders have won the last four meetings SU, but the series is tied at 2-2 ATS. The home team in this inter-division matchup is 7-3 SU in the last 10 meetings and the total has stayed UNDER in three of the last four games.

Saturday, July 19

Montreal Alouettes (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS) vs. British Columbia Lions (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS)


Point-Spread: BC -5½
Total: 47½

Game Overview

Montreal is still looking for some better consistency on both sides of the ball after a 1-2 start that includes a lopsided loss to Calgary on opening day followed by a solid 15-point victory over BC in Week 2 as a three-point home underdog. The Alouettes racked-up 203 yards on the ground in that win against the Lions.

The Lions are another team searching for an early identity, but they have to be encouraged with last week’s victory. Kevin Glenn played his best game of the season with 170 yards passing and one touchdown throw while Andrew Harris had a big day on the ground with 138 yards rushing and a touchdown on 18 carries.

Betting Trends


Montreal has failed to cover the spread in 22 of the last 29 meetings and it is a costly 3-13 ATS in the last 16 games played in BC. The total in this matchup has stayed UNDER in four of the last five games at BC Place.

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Re: CFL Betting News and Notes Week 4

EDMONTON (3 - 0) at WINNIPEG (3 - 0) - 7/17/2014, 8:35 PM

Top Trends for this game.
EDMONTON is 26-45 ATS (-23.5 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
EDMONTON is 3-1 against the spread versus WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
EDMONTON is 3-1 straight up against WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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TORONTO (1 - 2) at OTTAWA (0 - 2) - 7/18/2014, 7:05 PM

There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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HAMILTON (0 - 2) at CALGARY (2 - 0) - 7/18/2014, 10:05 PM

Top Trends for this game.
CALGARY is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) when playing on a Friday over the last 3 seasons.
CALGARY is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CALGARY is 2-2 against the spread versus HAMILTON over the last 3 seasons
CALGARY is 4-0 straight up against HAMILTON over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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MONTREAL (1 - 2) at BRITISH COLUMBIA (1 - 2) - 7/19/2014, 7:05 PM

Top Trends for this game.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 23-40 ATS (-21.0 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
MONTREAL is 3-2 against the spread versus BRITISH COLUMBIA over the last 3 seasons
MONTREAL is 3-2 straight up against BRITISH COLUMBIA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Re: CFL Betting News and Notes Week 4

EDMONTON vs. WINNIPEG
Edmonton is 7-18 SU in its last 25 games
Edmonton is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Winnipeg   
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Winnipeg's last 11 games at home
Winnipeg is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games at home

TORONTO vs. OTTAWA
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Toronto's last 7 games on the road
Toronto is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games on the road   
Ottawa is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Toronto
Ottawa is 2-10 SU in its last 12 games

HAMILTON vs. CALGARY
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Hamilton's last 6 games when playing on the road against Calgary
Hamilton is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Calgary   
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Calgary's last 15 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Calgary's last 17 games when playing Hamilton

MONTREAL vs. BRITISH COLUMBIA
Montreal is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Montreal's last 5 games on the road
British Columbia is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of British Columbia's last 5 games

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CFL Week 4

Edmonton (3-0) @ Winnipeg (3-0) --
These teams were combined 7-29 LY, are 6-0 this year; both teams beat expansion Ottawa, which helps, but Eskimos scored 27-28-27 points in their first three games, with all three staying under total, while Bombers scored 38.3 ppg in its 3-0 start, with all three games going over. Edmonton won four of last five series games, winning in OT here LY- underdogs are 4-1 vs spread in last five series games played here. Eskimos are +7 in turnovers this season, with 11 takeaways in three games.

Toronto (1-2) @ Ottawa (0-2) -- Home opener for RedBlacks squad that lost first two games after leading both at halftime; Ottawa was outscored 44-11 in second half of games after they'd led by 4-5 points at half. Argonauts opened with three western foes (west is 8-2 vs east so far this season); they've gained 1,013 yards in last two games, but got hammered by Calgary last week, despite outgaining Stamps by 78 yards. Ottawa has only one turnover in first two tilts; Toronto allowed 116 rushing ypg in first three games- can Ottawa run it against them?

Hamilton (0-2) @ Calgary (2-0) -- TiCats lost four in row and eight of last nine series games, as they've lost last nine visits here, last two by total of six points. Three of last four series games stayed under total. Stamps scored 31.5 ppg in winning first two games, turning ball over just one time. Both teams already had a bye; under is 2-0 in both teams' games this season, with Stampeders allowing 11.5 ppg- TiCats are scoring just 17 ppg. Western Conference teams are 8-2 vs eastern teams so far this season. TiCats (-3) turned ball over eight times already.

Montreal (1-2) @ BCLions (1-2) -- Alouettes (+3) upset BC 24-9 two weeks ago in Quebec, as they ran ball for 203 yards, had three takeaways (+2) in 7th straight home win in series. Als lost last three visits here by combined score of 122-25; four of their last five visits to BC went under the total. Lions upset Riders in Regina last week, shutting hosts out in second half- they turned ball over eight times in first two games- they had none last week. Montreal lost its only road games 29-8 at Calgary. All three Lion games stayed under the total.


Armadillosports.com

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Game of the Day: Eskimos at Blue Bombers
Covers.com

Edmonton Eskimos at Winnipeg Blue Bombers (-2.5, 54.5)

The undefeated Edmonton Eskimos and Winnipeg Blue Bombers will battle for top spot in the West Division when the former visits the latter on Thursday. The Blue Bombers looked strong in their opening two home games, scoring 81 points with their surprising new-look offense. Edmonton is one win away from matching its 2013 total thanks to its revamped defense, which has 13 sacks and a league-leading eight interceptions.

Eskimos slotback Adarius Bowman could be on pace for a career year with 284 receiving yards and four touchdowns as quarterback Mike Reilly’s favorite target. Winnipeg quarterback Drew Willy engineered a last-minute touchdown drive to win Week 3 and looks comfortable in the starting role for the Blue Bombers. Facing an Edmonton defense that includes Aaron Grymes and Dexter McCoil - both with a pair of interceptions already - will be Willy’s toughest challenge yet.

LINE HISTORY: Books opened the Bombers as 2.5-point home faves. The total opened 55 and is down to 54.5.

INJURY REPORT: Bombers - SB Aaron Kelly (Out, knee)

ABOUT THE ESKIMOS (3-0): Defensive tackle Almondo Sewell leads the league with five sacks, while defensive end Odell Willis has three. Edmonton’s offensive line has also been strong, limiting opponents to seven sacks and giving Reilly the time he needs to make plays and throw a league-leading seven touchdown passes. Running back John White recorded 99 rushing yards in Week 3, eclipsing the 73 that Tyler Thomas amassed over the opening two contests.

ABOUT THE BLUE BOMBERS (3-0): Winnipeg is still tweaking its roster, releasing former All-Star running back Will Ford on Monday after a preseason hamstring injury opened the door for Nic Grigsby to record 41 carries and 218 yards in three games. Linebacker Abraham Kromah was acquired from the Hamilton Tiger-Cats after starting the season on the injured list. Receiver Taveon Rogers announced via Twitter he signed with the Blue Bombers after spending time in the NFL with the Cincinnati Bengals.

TRENDS:

* Eskimos are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Over is 4-0 in Blue Bombers last four games in July.
* Over is 12-3-1 in Eskimos last 16 road games.
* Eskimos are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games.

CONSENSUS: 59 percent of wagers on Consensus are backing the Bombers.

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Game of the Day: CFL Doubleheader
Covers.com

Toronto Argonauts at Ottawa Redblacks (+2.5, 53)

A sold-out crowd awaits the Ottawa Redblacks’ home opener against the Toronto Argonauts on Friday. It will be the inaugural game at newly renovated TD Place Stadium, which officially opened last Wednesday. The Redblacks would like nothing more than to open their new home with their first franchise victory in what also is the first divisional game for both teams.

Toronto quarterback Ricky Ray leads the league with 982 yards and matches up well against an Ottawa defence allowing 281.5 per game. The only team allowing more passing yards than the Redblacks is the Argonauts, who also have surrendered a league-worst 10 passing touchdowns. This game could turn into a high-scoring shootout between Ray and Ottawa pivot Henry Burris - something with which the two veterans are very familiar.

LINE HISTORY: The LV Superbook opened the Argos as 2.5-point road faves. Toronto moved to -2 before going back to -2.5. The total opened 52.5 and now sits at 53.

INJURY REPORT: Argonauts - SB Chad Owens (Out, foot)

ABOUT THE ARGONAUTS (1-2): Ray will be without his top target in slotback Chad Owens, who is out for three weeks with a foot injury. Toronto already is without slotback Andre Durie due to a broken clavicle, so Ray will need to lean heavily on Spencer Watt, Jason Barnes and John Chiles. Defensive back Jalil Carter is one of the few bright spots on the Argonauts defence, leading the team with 13 tackles and three sacks.

ABOUT THE REDBLACKS (0-2): Burris slowed considerably after throwing two touchdown passes in his first quarter of the season, completing fewer than 55 percent of his passes through two starts. Kierrie Johnson is the team's only receiver with more than 100 yards, while running back Chevon Walker has scored three of the team’s four touchdowns and gained 193 combined yards. Ottawa could start Jeraill McCuller on the offensive line after Burris was sacked five times in Week 3, but the team will need to find a starting spot for a Canadian player if both McCuller and Nate Menkin start.

TRENDS:

* Argonauts are 13-4-1 ATS in their last 18 road games.
* Over is 4-1 in Argonauts last five games in July.
* Argonauts are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six vs. East.

CONSENSUS:
58.46 percent of wagers on Consensus are backing the Argos.


Hamilton Tiger-Cats at Calgary Stampeders (-9, 50)

The Hamilton Tiger-Cats are off to a rough start this season after playing in the 2013 Grey Cup Final. Their campaign doesn’t get any easier after a bye week as they visit the Calgary Stampeders on Friday. Making matters worse for the Tiger-Cats, quarterback Zach Collaros is out with an injury suffered in Week 3, meaning backup Jeremiah Masoli will make his first career start against Calgary's fearsome defence.

The Stampeders have limited opponents to 23 points in two games, recording seven sacks and allowing a league-low 71 rushing yards per contest. Calgary quarterback Bo Levi Mitchell is making the most of his opportunity as the starter, registering 580 passing yards and six touchdowns. The Tiger-Cats are limiting opponents to a league-best 200 passing yards per game, but they will have their hands full with Mitchell.

LINE HISTORY: The LV Superbook opened the Stamps as 9.5-point home faves before moving them to -9. The total opened 49 but is up to 50.

INJURY REPORT: Ti-Cats - QB Zach Collaros (Out, head), WR Andy Fantus (Probable, head). Stampederes - RB Jon Cornish (Out, concussion), WR Maurice Price (Out, hand)

ABOUT THE TIGER-CATS (0-2):
Masoli could have Andy Fantuz at his disposal if the wide receiver is fully recovered from a concussion suffered during the preseason. Hamilton traded linebacker Abraham Kromah to the Winnipeg Blue Bombers for future considerations. Linebacker Rico Murray has recorded the team’s only two interceptions.

ABOUT THE STAMPEDERS (2-0): Running back Jon Cornish was cleared to resume practicing but remains questionable for Friday. Charleston Hughes and Juwan Simpson each have recorded two sacks for a defence that has allowed only one touchdown. Wide receiver Joe West is close to returning from a quadriceps injury suffered during training camp, while Maurice Price remains out with a broken hand.

TRENDS:

* Under is 6-0 in Stampeders last six games overall.
* Tiger-Cats are 6-0 ATS in their last six Friday games.
* Under is 9-2 in Tiger-Cats last 11 games overall.

CONSENSUS: 59.81 percent of wagers on Consensus are behind the Stampeders.

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Game of the Day: Alouettes at Lions
By Covers.com

Montreal Alouettes at BC Lions (-6.5, 49)

The BC Lions return home to host the Montreal Alouettes on Saturday. The Lions are hoping to turn things around after dropping their home-opening contest, while Montreal is looking for its first road victory. BC defeated the Saskatchewan Roughriders to avoid starting the season 0-3 and will need to string more victories together to make up ground in the West Division.

Troy Smith is getting more comfortable as the Alouettes’ starting quarterback with each game, throwing for over 300 yards and completing three touchdowns against the Winnipeg Blue Bombers last week. Veteran pivot Kevin Glenn has yet to impress for the Lions, but completed his last start without throwing an interception after tossing six in the opening two contests. No team with three games played has fewer points than BC (55), which is facing a Montreal defence with 10 sacks.

LINE HISTORY: The opening line saw the Lions -5.5 before quickly being bet up to -6. It stayed a -6 for 24 hours before again jumping another half-point to -6.5.

INJURY REPORT: Alouettes: N/A  Lions: QB Travis Lulay (Shoulder/Questionable)

WHAT THE CAPPERS SAY: "The first rematch of the young season sees the Lions and Als clash. In the first meeting Montreal dominated the game en route to a 24-9 with BC’s first score coming in the final 90 seconds. Despite that, the home team has covered in the last five meetings and the Alouettes got thumped 29-8 in their lone road game this season." Covers Experts' Nick Parsons

WHAT THE BOOKS SAY:
"Both these teams are struggling to start the year. Both are 1-2 and are looking to get on the winning track. So far the Alouettes are seeing most of the action with 74 percent on the money line, 64 percent on the +6.0 spread and the under 48.5 total is seeing 72 percent of the action." Michael Stewart of Carbonsports.ag

ABOUT THE ALOUETTES (1-2):
Montreal added backup quarterback Jonathan Crompton, who was released by the Edmonton Eskimos earlier in the season. The Alouettes also secured the services of fullback Dahrran Diedrick and linebacker Kyler Elsworth. John Bowman leads the defence with four sacks. Running back Brandon Whitaker has 203 rushing yards, helping relieve pressure on Smith.

ABOUT THE LIONS (1-2): Running back Andrew Harris took home Offensive and Canadian Player of the Week honours after recording 232 total combined yards in Week 3. Linebacker Solomon Elimimian leads the league with 19 tackles. Stefan Logan has a league-leading 398 return yards.

TRENDS:

*Under is 6-1 in Alouettes last 7 games overall.
*Under is 4-1 in Lions last 5 home games.
*Alouettes are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 meetings in BC.

COVERS CONSENSUS: 55 percent of wagers are on the Lions -6.

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