Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, July 13

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, July 13

SPORTS WAGERS

CLEVELAND INDIANS-1½ +129 over Chicago

Trevor Bauer has a few big things going in his favor. For one, he’s long been in possession of what they call an electric arm. He’s been able to run his fastball up there in the mid-90s and while an electric arm doesn’t automatically bring one success, it does guarantee one several opportunities. Bauer is also intellectual and curious about his work, to an extreme extent. His willingness to try new things has gotten him into some trouble on occasion but it reflects a strong inner desire to be the best pitcher he can become. He also has no fear of giving up a run or two or being taken yard. Bauer has an excellent strikeout rate and his groundball percentage is trending strongly in the right way. He'll now face a Chicago team that will be without two key players. Adam Eaton and Alexei Ramirez were both injured yesterday, which not only hurts them offensively, it hurts the South Side defensively in a big way. Adam Eaton is among the best CF's in the game and Ramirez is their every day SS.

Then there's John Danks. With shoulder surgery now 22 months in the rear-view mirror, we'll give Danks' a mulligan for his mediocre 2013, as a sharp strikeout rate drop suggested he hadn't built back his arm strength. Has he been revived in 2014? Frankly, no he has not. Danks posted 7.6 K's/9 in May, but his strikeout totals have otherwise been subpar, leaving him more at the mercy of hit and strand %. He improved his control a bit in '13 to compensate for the lack of Ks, but that hasn't been the case this season, resulting in a putrid control rate (44 BB in 113 IP). The elevated hr/f% from '13 has corrected, but he's allowing more fly-balls, putting him at risk of another HR's allowed spike given his bandbox home park and other AL parks such as the one he'll pitch in here. Danks was perhaps a bounce back candidate entering the season, but his surgically repaired shoulder seems to have sapped his upside. His fastball usage and velocity continue to slip, as he's had to rely more on a changeup to induce swings and misses, which obviously isn't the answer. He piqued some interest with a four-win June, but none of them were impressive and none of them were pure quality outings. Danks' skills have been terrible and in his last start before the break he may look like a guy that is dead last in a marathon race but will do anything to cross the finish line. Big edge to the Indians in a very good situation.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, July 13

Nick Parsons

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays    
Play: Tampa Bay Rays -170

This could be one of the final starts for David Price as a Tampa Bay Ray as he will be much sought after as the trade deadline approaches. The rumor mill has him a lock for St Louis if he is dealt. The ex-Vandy star is 3-0 with an 1.87 ERA in his L3 and pitching his best baseball of the year. Price is 14-2 with a 2.87 ERA in 18 starts vs. Toronto. The Jays are reeling having lost nine of their L11 on the road. R.A.  Dickey is 1-4 with a 4.08 ERA in his L5 and is a .500 pitcher LT vs. the Rays. Tampa Bay is definitely worth a look.

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Michael Alexander

Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies    
Play: Washington Nationals -129 

Kendrick can thank his offense for putting an end to his three-start winless streak as he came away with a 9-7 victory at Milwaukee on Tuesday despite surrendering seven runs and 11 hits over 5 2/3 innings. The 29-year-old continued to struggle in the opening inning, allowing five runs against the Brewers to raise his season total in the frame to 21 earned runs in 18 outings. Kendrick fell to 5-9 with a 4.86 ERA in 25 career games (23 starts) versus the Nationals after yielding four runs over seven frames on June 5 at Washington.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, July 13

Greg Shaker

Twins / Rockies Over 9.5

Bargain price for this park and it is down for 10 which actually gives us this play for betting. Anderson not likely to be sharp back from the injury and the Colorado Pen is just not that good. Hughes is a Fly Ball pitcher and that's not very good here at Coors as we know. This game could be delayed as well with a decent chance of showers in the Denver area and rain delays are always a Bonus when playing OVER.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, July 13

Erin Rynning

St. Louis at Milwaukee
Play: Under 8.5

Two “premium stuff” arms take the hill this afternoon in Milwaukee.  St. Louis’ Carlos Martinez averages 98 mph with is fastball, while also offering a sinker, change-up and slurve.  He’s not a household name – yet – but owns some of the nastiest stuff around for a starting pitcher in the National League.  His repertoire is especially lethal on the right-handed bat, which is a perfect fit against the Brewers.  In his early career, Martinez owns a huge split with right-handers slugging just .276 against him, while left-handers see him much better at .469.  Meanwhile, Wily Peralta will take the bump for the Brew Crew.  Peralta deals off a sinker that averages 97 mph with a slider and still-developing change-up.  When Peralta’s right the sinker is all he needs, while garnering groundball after groundball.  Importantly, Peralta should have Martin Maldonado catching him today who brings out his best.  The forecast is sunny which means batters will be forced to contend with the shadows of Miller Park.  It all lines up for a play on the UNDER.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, July 13

Wunderdog

Los Angeles @ Connecticut
Pick: Connecticut +4

Connecticut doesn't have a winning record overall, but they are very good at home (7-4). Connecticut is 10-4 ATS at home and faces a Los Angeles team that is 3,000 miles from home. The Sun is 6-2 ATS against a team with a losing record and 5-2 ATS against the Western Conference. Connecticut is off a loss, but this team is 11-4 ATS following a defeat. This is a tough situational spot for Los Angeles, their third game of a four game road trip. They are on a 1-2 SU/ATS run, off a victory, but the Sparks are 1-8 against the spread after a win, as well as 7-19 ATS following a spread cover. Connecticut is hungry for a win, on a two-game slide, and Los Angeles is in town with a terrible defense at 10th in the WNBA in points allowed. Play Connecticut.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, July 13

Dennis Macklin

Tigers vs. Royals
Play: Over 8

Justin Verlander is 8-7 wth a 4.77 ERA and a fastball that is 5-8 miles off of what it was just a couple of years ago. He's 2-0 with a 5.00 ERA in his L3 starts thanks to 23 runs of support. Bruce Chen has been hammered all year in his limited starts. He's 1-2 with a 10.38 ERA in his L3 allowing 28 baseruners in his L13+ innings of work. The Tigers are mashing at .317 in their L7 games and not surprisingly the over is 7-3 in their L10. This could be classic chuck and duck.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, July 13

Harry Bondi

MIAMI (+140) over NY Mets

We know the Mets have been playing well but this is the biggest favorite they have been all year and do they deserve to be a 150 favorite over anyone? Mets attempt a three game sweep of the season on Sunday against Miami, something they have not done all year! Metropolitans trot out Jacob deGrom this afternoon and he is 3-8 in his last 11 decisions, and he's a -150 favorite! As you can tell, we love value bets and despite the Mets recent success the value here clearly lies with the Marlins.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, July 13

Non Stop Sports Picks

Brewers - 110

Martinez has been good so far this season, but so has Peralta. The reason we're getting such a low price on Brewers is because last game out, Peralta got shelled (9 ER in 4+ innings). But what does that mean? To me, it's an outlier, and we have a public team (the Cardinals) that people are betting solely on perception of what happened Peralta's last time out. I like it because for one, Peralta will have a fresh arm. For two, he SHOULD be motivated to come back out. These are professional athletes we're talking about and pride MATTERS. Taking the short fave here.


White Sox +150

Who is Bauer to be a -170 favorite, first of all? From there, we take a look at the White Sox, and they're hitting right now. And a team hitting, and especially hitting the long-ball, is a DANGEROUS team to be +150. When I look at this line, there's just NO way that Danks, who is the epitome of a gamer, should be this much of a dog. At the most, Bauer is about the same as Danks, and I even give the slight nod to Danks. From there, I see a total dropping, meaning that books are telling us a LOWER scoring game. So we'll say the White Sox have a chance & it will be close, and I'll take the BETTER hitting time as of the last week plus at this HUGE price!

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