Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, July 9

Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, July 9

DUNKEL INDEX

MLB

Houston at Texas
The Astros look to follow up last night's 8-3 in over the Rangers as they face a Texas team that is 2-12 in its last 14 games after allowing 5 runs or more in the previous game. Houston is the pick (+170) according to Dunkel, which has the Astros favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Houston (+170).

Game 901-902: San Diego at Colorado (3:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Stults) 12.138; Colorado (Jurrjens) 14.589
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 2 1/2; 12
Vegas Line: Colorado (-110); 11 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-110); Over

Game 903-904: Miami at Arizona (3:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (Eovaldi) 14.677; Arizona (Collmenter) 13.182
Dunkel Line: Miami by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Arizona (-130); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (+110); Under

Game 905-906: Atlanta at NY Mets (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Santana) 14.715; NY Mets (Gee) 15.882
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1; 6
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-130); 7
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+110); Under

Game 907-908: Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Beeler) 15.527; Cincinnati (Simon) 17.190
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-180); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-180); Over

Game 909-910: Philadelphia at Milwaukee (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Hernandez) 15.167; Milwaukee (Lohse) 14.077
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-200); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+170); Under

Game 911-912: Pittsburgh at St. Louis (8:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Cumpton) 13.677; St. Louis (Lynn) 16.140
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 2 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-140); 8
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-140); Over

Game 913-914: Toronto at LA Angels (3:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Stroman) 16.303; LA Angels (Wilson) 15.484
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1; 7
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-160); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+140); Under

Game 915-916: NY Yankees at Cleveland (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (McCarthy) 15.855; Cleveland (Tomlin) 17.485
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-115); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-115); Over

Game 917-918: Chicago White Sox at Boston (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Sale) 16.942; Boston (De La Rosa) 15.473
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-135); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (-135); Over

Game 919-920: Kansas City at Tampa Bay (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Ventura) 14.855; Tampa Bay (Cobb) 13.885
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1; 6
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-140); 7
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+120); Under

Game 921-922: Houston at Texas (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Keuchel) 16.388; Texas (Darvish) 15.366
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Texas (-200); 8
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+170); Under

Game 923-924: Minnesota at Seattle (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Gibson) 15.778; Seattle (Elias) 17.178
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Seattle (-150); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-150); Over

Game 925-926: LA Dodgers at Detroit (1:08 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Greinke) 15.549; Detroit (Scherzer) 14.448
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1; 6
Vegas Line: Detroit (-135); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (+115); Under

Game 927-928: Washington at Baltimore (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Roark) 13.286; Baltimore (Chen) 14.650
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Baltimore (-115); 9
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-115); Over

Game 929-930: Oakland at San Francisco (10:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Hammel) 15.138; San Francisco (Cain) 13.772
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Oakland (-120); 7
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-120); Over

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DUNKEL INDEX

WNBA

Seattle at Phoenix
The Storm head to Phoenix tonight to face a Mercury team that is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 home games. Phoenix is the pick (-10) according to Dunkel, which has the Mercury favored by 16. Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-10).

Game 601-602: Washington at Chicago (12:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 107.260; Chicago 114.231
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 7; 157
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago by 2; 153
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-2); Over

Game 603-604: Seattle at Phoenix (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 103.974; Phoenix 119.766
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 16; 148
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 10; 151
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-10); Under

Game 605-606: New York at San Antonio (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New York 112.220; San Antonio 113.245
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 1; 155
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 4 1/2; 151 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New York (+4 1/2); Over

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SPORTS WAGERS

Netherlands +134 over Argentina

This is an (Asian) Handicap wager. In other words, if the game is tied after regulation time, it’s a push.

Lionel Messi is the best footballer in the world and there is no disputing that. However, the Dutch are on a mission and seemingly cannot be stopped. Despite all the adversities and peril that has befallen the Dutch, they seemingly have the Luck of the Irish. The Netherlands escaped Mexico, scoring two goals in the final ten minutes of their fixture, capped off by a penalty kick that was certainly controversial. Nevertheless, Wesley Sneijder has been a catalyst for the Lions, as he has struck more wood than a carpenter. The Dutch overcame the mighty Ticos of Costa Rica in a penalty shootout, despite harsh luck and an apparent kismet from the Soccer Gods for Costa Rica. The Dutch have been contemplating and pontificating over their 2010 defeat against Spain and seemingly it has been the motivating force behind this Robin Van Persie led squad. The Dutch have another great playmaker in Arjen Robben, who has also been an offensive creator for this club throughout the tournament.

There is no clear cut favorite for this fixture. Argentina is a significant favorite in this because of the geographical orientation of the FIFA tournament and the play of one, Lionel Messi. However, Argentina has lived dangerously throughout the tournament and seems like a human team subtracting number 10 from the equation. Argentina has not had any convincing results throughout the tournament and it’s for that reason we give the Dutch a great chance to win this one.

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Marc Lawrence

Oakland Athletics at San Francisco Giants
Prediction: Oakland Athletics

Edges - Athletics: Hammel 28 strikeouts and 4 walks last four starts, and 5-2 2.72 ERA last seven teams starts. Giants: Cain 3-7 night team starts this season, and 3-7 career team starts in this series. With Hammel anxious to impress after coming over in recent trade to the A's and the Giants just 3-13 in Cain's last sixteen home starts, we recommend a 1-unit play on Oakland.

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DAVE COKIN

ATLANTA BRAVES AT NEW YORK METS
PLAY: ATLANTA BRAVES -120

There’s a cautionary note right off the bat here. The Braves are a streaky team and one thing they have not done well at all this season is avoid sweeps. This is just the third game of the four-game set between these division rivals, so I’m getting a little ahead of myself, but it’s something to keep in mind for Thursday if this one doesn’t go the right way.

Dillon Gee is making his first start off the DL after a rehab stint that appeared to have gone well. But first games back can be problematic, as it’s obvious a big step up from facing minor leaguers, and there’s often a very short leash involved as well. Therefore it’s tough to do more than take a guess as to what the Mets will get from Gee tonight, but I’m speculating that the pen will work at least a few innings here. That’s not by any means a death knell for the Mets, but this is still a relief corps that doesn’t inspire great confidence.

Ervin Santana has enjoyed his dealings with the Mets, as he’s a perfect 3-0 against them with a starry 0.86 ERA. More importantly, however, Santana comes into this duel in excellent form. He’s had three consecutive high grade outings, with wins in each of his last two starts, and Santana is a guy who can run hot and stay that way for fairly ample increments. Conversely, when Santana goes bad he can be solid fade material for multiple starts. But my experience over the years has taught me that it’s generally not a great idea to try and beat Ervin when he’s hot. Wait for him to cool off before firing against, and that just isn’t the case right now.

Beyond the pitching, the Braves have edges, although they’re really not wipeout category wins. In fact, I’m not sure the Braves even have the better offense with Evan Gattis sidelined. The Mets are swinging the bats fairly well right now, so I’m pretty much calling that a stalemate. But if this is close toward the finish line, I’d have to give Atlanta the edge with the better bullpen.

This fits a pitcher angle I like as my choice has the less impressive ERA but beats his opponent in what I consider the more meaningful peripheral categories. Plus, even though as mentioned earlier, the “due” theory has not panned out well at all with the Braves, I think this is their best matchup in the series and therefore their best chance to get a win. Atlanta will be the popular public side tonight, but I really can’t disagree. Make the Braves the choice as today’s free play.

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Jesse Schule

Chicago vs. Boston
Pick: Under

It's tough to make a case that there has been any pitcher better than Chicago's Chris Sale this season, however Sale was not selected as an All Star. He likely has something to prove heading into Wednesday's start in Boston.

Sale (8-1, 2.16 ERA) went the distance, allowing just one run on six hits, striking out a dozen in a 7-1 win over Seattle his last time out. He allowed on run over seven innings in a 3-1 loss to Boston earlier this year. The Red Sox have lost four straight, and seven of eight overall on this home stand. A slumping lineup might not pose much of a problem for the White Sox ace here.

The Red Sox hand the ball to Rubby De La Rosa, who will get another call up from the minors. De La Rosa (2-2, 2.51 ERA) allowed one run on four hits over seven innings in a loss to Oakland his last time out. The rookie impressed in his first stint with the team, striking out 30 hitters in just 30 2/3 innings of work in five starts.

The Red Sox have seen a long trend of low scoring games at Fenway, with the total going under in 23 of their last 30 home games.


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Scott Spreitzer

New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Indians    
Play: New York Yankees +110

Brandon McCarthy makes his Yankee debut tonight after finishing his stint in Arizona with a pair of strong starts.  Tonight, he'll face a Cleveland team averaging less than 4 rpg in home night games against right-handers.  He's also familiar with the "digs" having faced the Indians 17 times in his career, including 9 starts.  Mike Tomlin goes for the Indians and he has struggled in three of his last four starts.  Tomlin pitched well two starts ago in Seattle, but his other three starts since June 17 resulted in 15 earned runs allowed on 29 hits (4 home runs) in just 15 innings of work.  Tomlin has offered little more than BP at home this season and I expect more troubles tonight for the righty.  I'm backing the NY Yankees on Wednesday night.

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Art Aronson

Oakland A's vs. San Francisco Giants    
Play: San Francisco Giants +119

Oakland starts the recently acquired Jason Hammel (8-5, 2.95 ERA), who is 0-2 with a 3.02 ERA in eight lifetime starts against the Giants. San Francisco will counter with Matt Cain (1-7, 4.27 ERA); Cain pitched well in a losing effort against the Padres on Friday, surrendering just two runs on seven hits over 6 1/3 innings. While Cain hasn’t earned a victory since May, he has pitched well enough to in his last three starts, but simply hasn’t gotten the run support. Cain is 3-5 with a solid 2.11 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in 10 games started against the A’s lifetime. San Francisco is a pretty prideful team and won’t take lightly to getting swept in the two games in Oakland. Hammel starts a new chapter with a new team but there is pressure on him to follow up what Jeff Samardzija did in his debut; suffice it to say, I think this sets up as a prime letdown spot. Taking the NL team in the NL Park in interleague play will also help us. Consider a second look at the home side in this matchup.


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Dave Essler

Cleveland Indians -115

I'll finish this (or change it when lineups are out) but Tomlin is better than Bauer and McCarthy is not as good as Tanaka. Indians obviously better against RHP, but the real thing here is that Cleveland saw McCarthy when he was with Oakland, and McCarthy's stats in the NL without a DH aren't anything to write home about, and to me he's another one of those A's pitchers' who benefited from being in a bigger (huge) park in Oakland.

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Rob Vinciletti

New York Liberty vs. SA Silver Stars    
Play: SA Silver Stars -4½

The Stars have covered 8 of the last and have played their best ball vs losing teams. In their last meeting with New York they won by 12 points and have won 7 of 9 vs losing teams and covered 6 of 7 vs Eastern Conference teams. They have extended rest for this one and have won and covered 3 of 4 when playing with 3+ days rest. The Liberty are 0-4 with 1 spread win with home loss revenge and just 2-8 straight up and ats vs teams who allow 77 or more points. The Liberty are off a dog win in their last game but are just 4-12 following an upset win and have failed to cover 6 of 8 on the road. Look for San Antonio to get the win.


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Bryan Leonard

Oakland at San Francisco
Play: Oakland

We have some concerns about Jason Hammel transitioning back to the American League, but that's not a worry on Wednesday because he'll be pitching in a NL park with NL rules as the A's and Giants continue their interleague series. Hammel will be making his Oakland debut against Matt Cain. Hammel has exhibited tremendous control so far this season with one of the league's lowest walk rates. The Giants have fallen off the pace in the NL West in large part because of their offense, which had scored just 3.33 runs per game since the start of June entering action on Tuesday night.

Matt Cain's command has been way off this season with an increasing walk rate and an increasing home run rate. Opponents are slugging .491 against him with men on base and the Athletics will certainly be able to get men on base with their offensive strategy. As if his pitching struggles weren't enough, the Giants don't seem to like scoring on days when Cain pitches, averaging just 3.02 runs per game.

With Hammel making his A's debut in a friendly environment and with the NL rules, the A's and Hammel look like a solid bet to grab a road victory on Wednesday.

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Sports Atari

Chicago White Sox -113

The Red Sox are still hosting the White Sox and they’re still losing. Chicago goes for their 4th in a row and 3rd win in a row in this series. They’ve won 5 of 6 while outscoring opponents 25-9 in that stretch. They are 3 games out of .500 and pushing to cross that mark before the All-Star Break.

Chris Sale is the right guy to back here as he makes a final push to get an All-Star nod. In his last game, Sale struck out a season best 12 hitters and only gave up 6 hits in a dominant 7-1 win over the Mariners. He’s 3-0 with a 2.89ERA in his last 4 and 8-1 with a 2.16ERA overall.

Boston has only won a single game in 8 tries at home and continues to sit at the bottom of the AL East with a 39-51 record. Rubby De La Rosa is still a relative unknown in the league but his first 6 starts so far have been impressive. A 2-2 record with a 2.51 ERA is something to consider here as he continues to get called up from Triple-A to help out an inefficient team searching for answers. De La Rosa will have to experience a tough outing sooner or later and even if it doesn’t come tonight, the White Sox will have the hotter bats and a stronger arm on the mound to grab the win.

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Steve Janus

San Diego Padres +104

This is a great spot to jump on the Padres. Colorado will be starting Jair Jurrjens who was absolutely rocked in his first start with the Rockies at home. Jurrjens allowed 8 runs on 12 hits in just 4 and 2/3 innings of work and had to be transported to a local hospital for breathing issues. Look for Jurrjens to struggle with the thin air once again. San Diego will be sending out Eric Stults who allowed just 4 hits over 7 shutout innings in his last start and is 3-1 with a 3.95 ERA over 9 career starts against the Rockies (8-1 team record).

Key Trend - Colorado is 1-11 this season following a win by 1 run or less.

System - Any team (COLORADO) - with a team batting average of .275 or better on the season (NL) against opponent starting a pitcher who gave up no earned runs last outing are just 18-43 (29%) against the money line over the last 5 seasons.

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Nick Parsons

Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds    
Play: Cincinnati Reds -1½ +127

The Cubs had been playing .500 ball in the 50 games before their recent trade with the A's but are 0-5 since scoring just 11 runs. Dallas Beeler was sharp in his debut allowing just one run in six innings but faces a red-hot Red outfit that has won seven of its last eight at the Great American Ball Park. Alfredo Simon is 11-3 on the year and Cincinnati has won his L7 starts (3-0, 2.00, L5) and has already beaten the Blue Bears three times in 2014. Take the Reds on the Run-Line.

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SPORTS WAGERS

San Diego +103 over COLORADO

Forget Eric Stults for a minute, as this wager has absolutely nothing to do with backing him. This wager is all about fading the struggling Rockies as the chalk with Jair Jurrjens going. Colorado has played six straight at Coors and has scored two runs or fewer in five of those games. The Rockies offense and bullpen are struggling miserably. Now Jurrjens makes just his second start of the year. He was originally to report to AAA-Colorado Springs but was instead diverted to Denver. Never a “stuff” pitcher, Jurrjens still managed to parlay 6 K’s/9 and 3.1 BB/9 into sub-3.00 ERA years with Atlanta a few years ago. But since July 2012, when sudden ineffectiveness was amplified by an injured groin, he’s given up 130 hits in 97 IP with a 6.31 ERA and 50/38 K/BB ratio. In his first start against the Dodgers, he allowed 12 hits and eight runs in 4.2 innings. Facing a shortage of immediate options, Jurrgens becomes the season’s 13th starting pitcher to take the mound for the Rockies. It’s not likely a lucky number for those stepping in on the Rocks. Jair Jurrjens is batting practice out there and that must be faded when he’s favored.


Toronto +140 over L.A. ANGELS

The Jays took a big load off their shoulders last night with a much needed win. They now have a great chance to make it two in a row over the Angels, as Toronto has a nice edge on the mound. C.J. Wilson’s ERA on May 23 was 3.00. Eight starts later and Wilson comes into this game with an ERA of 4.23. The Angels have dropped five of his last eight starts but they needed seven runs to get him off the hook in two of those starts. Wilson has allowed 23 hits over his last 13 innings and he’s also walking too many batters. In fact, he’s walked 45 on the year in 113 frames and has issued four walks in two of his past four games. Four straight seasons of 200+ IP for a converted reliever who also recently dealt with elbow surgery may be starting to take a toll on Wilson. Wilson does have upside with a good groundball rate and his ability to dominate lefties but in this spot against Marcus Stroman, he’s overpriced.

With the way Stroman is throwing right now, this tag is way too juicy to ignore. Stroman is coming off a gem in Oakland in which he completely dominated the A’s for seven innings before being pulled. He did not give up a single run but the Jays lost 1-0 in 12 innings. Stroman throws five pitches, the best of which is a completely ridiculous wipeout slider, a true out-pitch with plus-plus potential. He also throws a four-seamer that sits 93-96 mph, a cutter with tremendous late bite at 93 mph, along with a change-up and curveball that are both more than show-me pitches. Stroman has a 50% groundball rate, 43 K’s in 43 innings as a starter and a skills supported 2.30 ERA over his last five starts. What’s even more impressive is that in his seven starts overall, five of them have come at hitter friendly Rogers Center in Toronto and one other one came at hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium. In other words, Stroman has accomplished all of this by pitching six of seven starts at extreme hitter’s parks. As soon as he got into a more pitcher friendly environment, he breezed through a tough A’s lineup. It’s a small sample size but this kid looks to be the real deal and he most certainly gives the Blue Jays a better chance of winning than losing.


Chicago -113 over BOSTON

The Red Sox have lost four in a row and seven of their past eight games. Their only win over that span came against Miguel Gonzalez of the Orioles, a below average pitcher that the Red Sox scored just three runs off of and won the game, 3-2. Boston faced Scott Carroll in the opener of this series, a starter that came into the game with a 5.05 ERA, a 1.61 WHIP and oppBA of .318, and the Red Sox made him look like Clayton Kershaw. Carroll took a one hitter into the seventh and left with two outs. Boston would get one more hit the rest of the night. Now the Red Sox will face Chris Sale. Sale may be the AL’s best pitcher. Current Red Sox have four hits in 41 career AB’s against Sale for a BA of .098. The Red Sox’ three best hitters, Dustin Pedroia, David Ortiz and Mike Napoli are a combined 2 for 18 against Sale. What’s even more appealing about Sale here is that the Red Sox are a left-handed heavy lineup with Ortiz, Brock Holt, Jackie Bradley Jr., Stephen Drew, Mike Carp (if he plays) and A.J. Pierzynski all batting left. Chris Sale absolutely smothers lefties, as he has limited them to a ridiculous .057/.108/.057 line. Opposing managers mostly refuse to bat lefties against him but John Ferrell doesn’t have much choice. Catcher David Ross played last night and he’s batting .176 so it really doesn’t matter who Ferrell uses because both Ross and Pierzynski must be rendered useless against Sale.

Rubby De La Rosa goes for the Red Sox and we like this kid. That’s something we can look at later on in the season if the Red Sox snap out of it and De La Rosa has some value. In this game he has none because all the value is on Chris Sale and the South Side spotting a very cheap price.

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Bob Balfe

Detroit Tigers -120

The Dodgers had a powerful 5 run first inning yesterday and then mustard only 2 hits for the rest of the game giving up the next 14 runs and now had to go to bed and wake up to play an afternoon game. This Tigers team hit everything yesterday as they would bat around before a guy even got out. This team is rolling right now and should continue the massacre from last night. Take the Tigers.

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John Fisher

Oakland at San Francisco
Play: Oakland -105

Giants can't solve the A's and putting Cain on the mound won't help. Hammel like Smardzija will demonstrate how food they really are when playing for a winner. But wasn't Hammel winning already? His curve ball keeps hitters honest and the Giants have struggled with this pitch all year. To the contrary, Cain will be an easy pitcher for the A's to figure out based on Beanes scouting report. So far the A's have done there home work and Giants going through the motion. Giants 7-19 L26 ...why will it change with Caine on the mound and a Hammel that has found his groove.

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Primetime Insiders

Miami +113

Miami needed late game heroics from Ozuna to get the victory last night.  The Diamondbacks are going to be down after completely dominating the game and not getting the victory.  Eovaldi is slightly underrated according to our system as he has had strong performances the last 4 outings. 


San Diego / Colorado Under 11.5

We might be cheating fate here as we have played the under the last two nights but with a higher total and the winds blowing in at Coors our system loves this spot again.  Stults has really played well of late with an ERA south of 8 so he should be able to continue to calm the bats of the Rockies.  Jurrjens was destroyed the last time pitching but that wasn't against the Padres.  Our system doesn't see this game getting to 8 runs.

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Bryan Power

Oakland vs. San Francisco
Pick: Oakland

The A's continue to dominate the competition as last night's 6-1 win at home over the Giants was their sixth in a row overall and improved their YTD record to 57-33 w/ an astounding +145 run differential.  That's more than double the next best team. As I've said many times before, this is clearly the best team in MLB.

Last week's big trade w/ the Cubs saw Jeff Samardzija as the big centerpiece, but let's also not forget that they also got Jason Hammel in the deal as well.  Hammel's numbers aren't too shabby either as he has 2.98 ERA & 1.021 WHIP in 17 starts. Making his first start w/ his new team against a familiar foe such as the Giants seems pretty favorable.  Not just because San Francisco is currently in a tailspin either.  Hammel has a career 2.35 ERA here at AT&T Park.

The Giants have now lost 20 of 27 games overall and are just 3-14 their L17 at home. They were outscored 11-1 in the two games in Oakland. Starter Matt Cain has seen the team lose each of his L5 starts and personally he's gone winless over his last seven.  He's been somewhat of a hard-luck loser his last two times out, but I just can't see San Francisco solving their Bay Area rivals at this time.

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LT Profits

Chicago vs Cincinnati
Pick: Under 7.5

There could be a somewhat surprising pitching duel when young Dallas Beeler and the Chicago Cubs visit Alfredo Simon and the Cincinnati Reds. Simon has been a great story, as after a mediocre career the 33-year-old has suddenly gone 11-3 with a 2.78 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP in 17 starts! No, we are not believers either but there is no reason why Simon cannot continue his joyride vs. a poor Cubs offense batting .226 vs. right-handed pitchers this season, averaging 3.58 runs per game against them. However, he may not be the only pitcher that does well as Beeler impressed in his Major League debut allowing just an unearned run on four hits in six innings with six strikeouts, and he is facing a Reds offense batting .235 vs. righties the last 10 games averaging only 2.73 runs. The ‘under’ is 12-5 in Simon’s last 17 starts overall.

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