Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, July 7

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, July 7

Wunderdog

Kansas City @ Tampa Bay
Pick: Kansas City +116

The Tampa Bay Rays come home off a successful road trip, and they will open a series against former teammate James Shields and the Kansas City Royals. The Royals have played well on the road where they are 4-1-1 in their last six road series. Shields is certainly comfortable on the mound in Tampa Bay where he was 72-45 as a member of the Rays staff when pitching at home, and his last 24 starts here when with the Rays show them at 18-6. His only appearance against his former team shows a win where he worked seven innings, striking out seven, and allowing two runs on just five hits. The Rays are just 5-14 in their last 19 at home vs. a team with a winning record, and Kansas City is 20-6 on the road in Shields' last 26 starts. Make the play on Kansas City.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, July 7

Bob Balfe

Red Sox / White Sox Over 10

I don't know how these pitchers still are in the rotation for these two teams. Both of these guys have been rocked this year. With the wind blowing out gusting to center field tonight what are the chances of both of them throwing a gem? Look for a lot of runs early and often this evening. Take the Over.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, July 7

Tony George

San Diego vs. Colorado
Play: Under 10½

Do not expect a post 4th of July fireworks show in Colorado tonight.  Offense will be a premium here tonight.  The combined pitchers ERA average with Kenneday and Matzek tonight in their last 3 games is averaged out 4.61, and while that is respectable in some cases in terms at looking at the Over in a hitters park like Colorado, think again.

The Padres offense is in the gutter.  In their last 10 games only 1 time did the toal score exceed 10 runs.  Colorado’s last 7 games has resulted in 19 runs total but one of those games they sdcored 8 runs.  The Padres have not faced a southpaw in 5 games, and while they still have no impressive numbers on offense, they have to face the fact they have managed a season team batting average against left handers of .193, just deplorable.

Add in the fact 8 out of the last 11 in this series have went under and the Padres are a very bankable aset on the road in terms of playing Under since they have managed to go Under 29-4-2 their last 35 road games, and I see a low scoring game tonight.

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Hollywood Sports

Houston at Texas
Play: Under

The Under is 12-3-1 for this Houston team (36-54) in their last 16 road games as an underdog in the +110 to +150 price range. They send out Cosart who allowed more than three earned runs in his last outing against Seattle for the first time since April 18th. The Under is 5-1-1 in the Astros' last 7 road games with Cosart pitching as the underdog. Texas (38-56) has seen the Under go 6-1-1 in their last 8 games as a favorite.

They counter with Mikolas who is making his second career major league start. He has a chance for a nice performance against this Houston team that has played 5 of their last 7 road games against right-handed starting pitchers.

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Sam Martin

New York Yankees at Cleveland Indians
Prediction: New York Yankees

Solid line value backing the Yankees tonight in Cleveland, as Indians "ace" Justin Masterson has been a huge disappointment all season long and enters this game with a losing 4-5 record and high 5.16 earned run average. Shane Greene gets his first major league start tonight, and while we won't back Greene as a premium selection with little track record to go on, there is still a big argument to be made for taking this big payout with the underdog.

The Yankees have dominated the Indians in recent years, winning 11 of the last 13 meetings between these clubs. And while the Yankees are only one game over the .500 mark on the season, they are for whatever reason a better road team than they are at home, going six games over .500 outside of Yankee Stadium. Masterson gave up 7 earned runs against New York the last time he faced them (last season), and at this price backing the dog is the only way to go!

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John Ryan

New York Yankees at Cleveland Indians
Prediction: Cleveland Indians

5* graded play on the Cleveland Indians as they take on the NY Yankees in AL action set to start at 7:05 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that the Indians will win this game against the Yankees. In fact I am playing this as a combination bet using a 4* amount on the line and a 1.5* amount using the run line for a total of 5.5* units of risk. Indians are a solid 66-34 (+31.0 Units) against the money line when facing AL teams scoring 4.2 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons; 42-18 (+22.9 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with a batting average of .265 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons; 42-15 (+24.0 Units) against the money line in home games vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .320 or worse over the last 2 seasons. Masterson starts for the Indians and he is 11-2 (+10.1 Units) against the money line vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) Take the Indians.


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Jeff Alexander

Cleveland Indians -145

The Yankees are 5-22 in their last 27 games as an underdog of +110 to +150, including 0-4 in their last 4 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150, while the Indians are 74-36 in their last 110 games as a favorite and 11-3 in their last 14 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150.  The Tribe is 36-17 in Masterson's last 53 starts as a favorite, 14-6 in his last 20 starts as a home favorite,  12-4 in his last 16 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150 and 5-1 in his last 6 home starts.  He's 4-0 lifetime in 4 home starts versus the Yankees, holding them to only 2 runs in 29 innings in these starts.

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Michael Alexander

Miami Marlins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks    
Play: Miami Marlins +100

After winning his first five starts, Anderson continued to plummet as he dropped his fourth straight decision in Pittsburgh on Wednesday. The 26-year-old saw his pitch count elevate and exited after 3 2/3 innings - with two of the three runs he allowed coming on rookie Gregory Polanco's two-run homer. Anderson has permitted nine homers in as many outings while issuing multiple walks in three of his last four trips to the mound.

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Dave Price

St. Louis Cardinals -161

The Cardinals have the edge on the mound with Wainwright, who is 11-4 with a 1.89 ERA in 17 starts.  He has given up just two earned runs over his last four starts spanning 30 2-3 innings.  Pittsburgh's Morton is 2-6 on the road with a 4.27 ERA.  He's also 1-5 with a 4.14 ERA versus the division.  Compare that figure to the 2.62 ERA Wainwright had posted against NL Central foes.  Wainwright is 12-5 with an ERA of 3.88 in 22 starts versus the Pirates.  The Cards are 5-0 in his last five home starts against them.  He's held the Pirates to one run or none in each of his last four home starts against them.  Morton is 2-11 with a 5.90 ERA in 16 starts versus St. Louis.  The Pirates are 0-9 in Morton's last nine starts versus the Cardinals and 0-4 all-time in his starts versus the Cards when the opposing pitcher is Wainwright.

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Nick Parsons

Atlanta vs. New York
Play: Over 7½

The Braves will look to bounce back here after their nine-game win streak was snapped in yesterday’s lacklustre 3-1 home loss to Arizona.

Atlanta has to be liking its chances for a return to the winners circle tonight, it’s won 14 of 21 away from home, 12 of its last 18 at Citi Field and has dominated Mets’ starter Daisuke Matsuzaka (3-3, 3.72 ERA) throughout his career; note that Matsuzaka is just 1-3 with a brutal 9.00 ERA in four career starts against the Braves, going just five or fewer innings in each of the last three.

However, the Metropolitans come in with momentum, they beat Texas 8-4 on Sunday. The visitors counter with Mike Minor (2-5, 4.73 ERA) who is 0-3 with a poor 5.21 ERA in eight outings since his last win in mid May. Most recently Minor was shelled for four runs and nine hits over just 4 1/3’s innings opposite Matsuzaka last week.

Recent performance plays a crucial role in my handicapping repertoire and neither starter impresses me here; expect each to get chased early and for this total to eclipse the number as the game comes down the stretch; play on the OVER.

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Steve Rosen

Chicago vs. Boston
Play: Over 10

The Boston Red Sox have impressive under numbers with 34-51 O/U. However, in this instance we are seeing 2 pitchers who keep allowing runs non stop. Carroll has a 5.46 era on the road and during the night he has a 6.92 era. Boston's Buchholz numbers are not any better. He has a 6.75 at home and a 5.16 era at night. Boston has put up 22 runs in their last 4 games and the sox have only had 13. This game will go way over 10, i project a 13-14 run game as Boston will keep crushing the ball and both pitchers will heavily struggle.

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Simon Green

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Play: Philadelphia Phillies +116

The Brewers have dropped 5 of 6 and face the Phillies best pitcher in Cole Hamels. Now I do know that the Phillies have dropped 9 of 10 but Hamels has very good career numbers against the Brewers and Brewers starter Marco Estrada has just awful numbers against the Phillies. This is a prime spot for Hamels and the Phillies to get a rare win.

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Rob Veno

Miami at Arizona
Play: Under 9

After winning his first five Major League decisions, it seems as if the luster is beginning to wear of Diamondbacks rookie Chase Anderson who has now lost four of his last five starts. During this month long stretch heading into tonight, his ERA has gone from 3.14 to 3.91. Other numbers during this winless drought include a 4.61 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, 17.48 PPI, and 25-14 K-to-BB ratio. It must be noted however that Anderson’s last five opponents have been above average offensive teams including the LA Dodgers, Milwaukee (twice), Cleveland and Pittsburgh. It should also be noted that Anderson’s last four games have all stayed under the total so lack of offensive support has factored into his losses as well. Miami’s Tom Koehler has been terrific of late chalking up three consecutive quality starts with a combined 0.95 WHIP and 1.89 ERA. The Diamondbacks feeble offense (outside of All-Star Paul Goldschmidt) has been held to three runs or less in seven of their last nine with a .239 BA and .317 OBP.  With the Chase Field roof expected to be closed and two under-the-radar and yet viable starting pitchers we’ll jump in and play the under with the key number of 9 now widely available.

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Harry Bondi

MILWAUKEE (-120) over Philadelphia

Philadelphia is reeling having lost 10 of its last 12 games and tonight's Phillies starter Cole Hamells is 0-2 with a 4.19 ERA in his last two starts. Take Milwaukee over the struggling Phillies.

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Nelly

Los Angeles Angels - over Toronto Blue Jays

J.A. Happ is 7-4 but with rather unremarkable numbers for the Blue Jays with a 4.38 ERA and a barely 2:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Happ has allowed three or more runs in six of his last nine starts with four or more runs allowed in five of those outings despite rarely paying the price with a loss. Happ has struggled on the road with a 1.68 WHIP and a 5.14 ERA and he faces one of the top offenses in baseball Monday night with the Angels having 19 wins vs. left-handed starters this season. The Angels enter this series off a four-game home sweep of Houston with 29 runs scored and Los Angeles is 30-14 at home on the season. Still trailing Oakland in the AL West, the Angels quietly have the second best record in all of baseball at 51-36 as we approach the All Star break. Toronto was one of the top teams in the AL for most of the first half but this team has been on a great slide, dropping seven of the last nine and going 9-19 since opening the month of June 5-0. Toronto has scored fewer than 2.9 runs per game over the last 10 games compared with 6.5 runs per game for the Angels. In that span Los Angeles is batting .364 and scoring 8.2 runs per game vs. left-handed pitching. Jered Weaver is having an excellent season for the Angels and at home his ERA is 2.75 with a 1.06 WHIP. The Angels are 7-1 in the eight starts for Weaver vs. the Blue Jays and the Angels have won eight of the last 10 overall in this series. This is a steep price but with a big edge on the mound and at the plate for the host.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, July 7

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAYS

Colorado/ San Diego Under 10.5 (-115): I know this game is in Coors, but Im not sure that the Padres could put up 4 or 5 runs in a little park this year. This offense is pathetic, as they have averaged just 2.4 rpg in their last 10 games overall, while on the road they have scored just 2.9 rpg, hitting just .191 vs lefties in their road games this year. I see 3 or 4 at the most for the Padres here. For Colorado, they have been very good at home on offense (5.98 rpg), but they did just score 2 runs or less here in 3 of their 4 games with the Dodgers and they have averaged just 3.5 rp in their last 10 games overall. They will take on Ian Kennedy, who has a solid 3.81 ERA on the road this year and who has allowed 3 ER's or less in 9 of his last 10 starts vs the Rockies, while posting a 3.56 ERA in 7 career starts in this park. Let's also note that Tyler Matzek's 4 night starts this year have averaged just 7.25 rpg, while Kennedy's 7 night starts have put up just 6.86 rpg and his 8 road starts have averaged a mere 5.0 rpg. Very hard to see 10+ runs in this one.

Miami/ Arizona Under 9 (-120): Chase Anderson has been involved in some high scoring home games (13.2 rpg), but his last 2 home starts put up just 7 and 5 runs and I see this one falling in that range. The DBacks have scored just 1 run in each of his last 3 starts and they have put up just 2.9 rpg in their last 10 games overall. Can't see them getting a whole lot here off of Tom Koehler, who has a 1.89 ERA in his last 3 starts. The Marlins have averaged 3.92 rpg and Chase Anderson has allowed 3 ER's or less in 6 of his last 7 starts. The Under is 5-1 in Miami's last 6 road games with a total set at 9 to 10.5, while the Under is 9-2 in Arizona's last 11 vs the NL East, plus the last 5 games played here between these teams have all gone Under the total. I see 7 or less runs in this one.   

2 UNIT PLAY

LA Angels/ Toronto Over 8.5 (-115): Jered Weaver has pitched well at home this year, but this Toronto Offense is due, as they come in off a 4 games series with the A's in which they scored just 4 total runs. Let's also note that Weaver has allowed 4 ERs or more in 4 of his last 7 games and behind him is a pretty weak bullpen. The Angel offense has been on fire lately, averaging 6.2 rpg in their last 10 games and they just put up 29 runs in the 4 game sweep of the Astros. J.A. Happ has a solid 7-4 record on the year, but his ERA is 4.38 overall, 5.14 on the road and 5.30 in his last 3 starts. He also has a 9.45 ERA in 2 career starts vs the Angels. The OVER is 12-3 the last 15 meeting and 7-2-2 in the Halos last 11 off a win. 10+ runs to be scored here.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, July 7

Primetime Insiders

Atlanta -125

Surprised to see this number only at -125 with the surging Braves agains the Mets tonight at Citi Field. The Braves bring lefty throwing Mike Minor to the mound while the Mets bring Diasuke Matsuzaka. Minor has struggled on the mound thus far this season with a record of 2-5 and an ERA sitting just south of 5 but per our system is bound for a rebound against the Mets. Diasuke was battered last time against the Braves giving up 5 earned runs and it is pointing to a similar outcome tonight.


San Diego / Colorado Under 10.5

This number is coming in very inflated. We have the best hitting team in baseball against the worst hitting team in baseball. We know the game is at Coors Field but the wind is blowing in very strong. Kennedy is very underrated per our system and should be able to fan quite a few batters tonight as he is striking out 9.5 batters per nine innings. Matzek is also underrated per our system and should be able to limit the damage against the poor hitting Padres.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, July 7

OC Dooley

SF Giants +145

About one month ago it appeared that we were headed to a Bay Area World Series which has not been seen in 25 years.  While Oakland statistically continues to be the best side in the majors, San Francisco has managed to cough up a massive 9-and-a-half game divisional advantage. Despite an elongated slump the Giants are still neck-and-neck with the Dodgers near the top of the National League West and are finally coming off a “series” triumph where firstbaseman Brandon Belt returned from a lengthy injury absence.  One of the keys to this pick surrounds the projected PITCHING matchups for this Interleague series which begins tonight in Oakland and wraps up Thursday in San Francisco.  In games two-through-four of this series the Athletics will be sending three starts to the mound with ERA’s of 3.08 or lower.  Scott Kazmir and Sonny Gray alone have combined for 18 victories.  However Oakland tonight sends struggling Jesse Chavez to the mound (9 runs allowed in the past 10 innings of work).  On the mound for San Francisco is Ryan Vogelsong (just 3 runs allowed last 13 innings) who has made a comeback from a recent slump

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