Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, July 6

Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, July 6

DUNKEL INDEX

MLB

Milwaukee at Cincinnati
The Brewers look to follow up yesterday's 1-0 win over the Reds and come into today's contest with a 5-1 record in Yovani Gallardo's last 6 starts against Cincinnati. Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+120). 

Game 951-952: Milwaukee at Cincinnati (1:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Gallardo) 15.832; Cincinnati (Latos) 14.676
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1; 6
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-140); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+120); Under

Game 953-954: Chicago Cubs at Washington (1:35 a.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Arrieta) 13.799; Washington (Zimmermann) 15.382
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Washington (-165); 7
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-165); Over

Game 955-956: Arizona at Atlanta (1:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Miley) 15.733; Atlanta (Wood) 14.646
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1; 6
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-170); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+150); Under

Game 957-958: Philadelphia at Pittsburgh (1:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Burnett) 13.318; Pittsburgh (Locke) 15.724
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 2 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-160); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-160); Over

Game 959-960: Miami at St. Louis (2:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (Alvarez) 14.155; St. Louis (Gonzalez) 15.662
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-110); 8
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-110); Over

Game 961-962: San Francisco at San Diego (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Lincecum) 15.770; San Diego (Hahn) 14.669
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1; 5
Vegas Line: San Diego (-125); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+105); Under

Game 963-964: LA Dodgers at Colorado (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Beckett) 17.128; Colorado (Flande) 15.566
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers 1 1/2; 12
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-160); 11
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-160); Over

Game 965-966: Tampa Bay at Detroit (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Price) 17.715; Detroit (Porcello) 16.933
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1; 6
Vegas Line: Detroit (-110); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-110); Under

Game 967-968: Kansas City at Cleveland (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Duffy) 16.785; Cleveland (Kluber) 15.658
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1; 6
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-135); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+115); Under

Game 969-970: Baltimore at Boston (1:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Gausman) 15.200; Boston (Peavy) 16.894
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Boston (-125); 9
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-125); Over

Game 971-972: NY Yankees at Minnesota (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Kuroda) 14.200; Minnesota (Nolasco) 15.194
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1; 7
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-120); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+100); Under

Game 973-974: Seattle at Chicago White Sox (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Walker) 16.152; White Sox (Noesi) 14.636
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Seattle (-130); 9
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-130); Over

Game 975-976: Houston at LA Angels (3:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (McHugh) 16.359; LA Angels (Richards) 17.805
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-185); 8
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-185); Over

Game 977-978: Toronto at Oakland (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Hutchison) 15.725; Oakland (Samardzija) 14.616
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1; 6
Vegas Line: Oakland (-160); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+140); Under

Game 979-980: Texas at NY Mets (1:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Tepesch) 14.685; NY Mets (Wheeler) 13.766
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1; 7
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-120); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas (+100); Under

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DUNKEL INDEX

WNBA

Phoenix at Los Angeles
The Mercury head to Los Angeles today where they are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games versus the Sparks. Phoenix is the pick (-1) according to Dunkel, which has the Mercury favored by 4. Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-1).

Game 601-602: Minnesota at New York (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 117.569; New York 110.527
Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 7; 149
Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota by 4 1/2; 154 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-4 1/2); Under

Game 603-604: Phoenix at Los Angeles (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 117.257; Los Angeles 113.335
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 4; 163
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 1; 158 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-1); Over

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, July 6

DAVE COKIN

KANSAS CITY ROYALS AT CLEVELAND INDIANS
PLAY: CLEVELAND INDIANS -137

This is a bigger chalk piece than you’ll generally see me getting involved with. But a nice record with Corey Kluber and what is apparently a good feel for this series based on the last two nights has me willing to bite the bullet even at what is clearly not a bargain price.

Fact is, I could easily find a way to make a case for the Royals as a value option here. Danny Duffy has been okay, the offensive data when factoring in lefty/righty splits favors the road team, and KC is a good road team to boot. But there are some other numbers that are more meaningful to me, and having enjoyed lots of success with Kluber has me trusting that data the most.

There are three sets of stats that I put more weight on than old school numbers such as ERA. I find these numbers to be far more revealing in determining exactly how well a pitcher is really doing. In the case of Kluber, his key analytical numbers are even better than his 2.92 ERA would indicate. This is a totally legit ace at this point, and I don’t think there can be any question Kluber rates a spot on the American League All-Star staff.

Duffy, on the other hand, has a 2.60 ERA that I would have to consider misleading. His peripherals tell me there’s some regression coming here. Duffy has a very low BABIP, his fly ball rate is elevating, his swing and miss rate is dropping, and his BB rate is inching up. I’m not suggesting Duffy is going to fall apart. But I’d be surprised if he’s able to maintain what he’s done for the most part since taking a regular rotation turn for the Royals.

One other note worth mentioning. The Indians have done most of their offensive damage against righties this season. But of late that has turned to some extent, with the Tribe finally starting to dent some opposing southpaws. Thus, while I’d become extremely reluctant to try the Indians against lefties for most of the last couple months, I’m now more willing to do so.

Mostly, this is all about backing a pitcher who has gotten me paid almost every time I’ve played him this season. If you’re just showing up at the Corey Kluber party, there’s always the possibility you missed the best part. But if you’ve been getting those Kluber dividend checks all season, it makes plenty of sense to just keep riding him. That’s what I’ll be doing today with a second straight free play call on the Indians.

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Marc Lawrence

Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds
Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers

Edges - Brewers: Gallardo 34 strikeouts and 6 walks last six starts, and 5-1 day team starts this season, and 5-1 last six team starts vs Cincinnati. Reds: Latos 3-6 career team starts vs Milwaukee. With Latos' 7.94 home ERA more than seven runs per game higher than his 0.90 away ERA this season, we recommend a 1-unit play on Milwaukee.

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Art Aronson

New York Yankees vs. Minnesota Twins    
Play: New York Yankees -116

I think the Yanks bounce back after yesterday’s defeat. The pinstripes will go with Japanese right-hander Hiroki Kuroda (5-6, 4.08 ERA); Kuroda has pitched three straight quality outings where he has gone at least six innings while giving up three earned runs or less. Kuroda gave up zero runs over five innings in his last start versus Minnesota. The Twins will counter with Rickey Nolasco (5-6, 5. 5.49 ERA); the right-hander had a 6.04 ERA in his four previous games before yielding one run over six innings in a 10-2 win over the Royals in his last start. I’m not reading too much into Minnesota’s win yesterday, the Twins had dropped nine of 11 overall and three in a row at Target Field prior to yesterday’s outcome. Minnesota has not won consecutive games at Target Field versus the Yankees in five seasons and I don’t expect that trend to change today. The Yankees are 8-2 at Minnesota the last three seasons and have won 12 of 20 overall versus the Twins over that span. Consider a second look at the visitors in this spot


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Scott Spreitzer

Kansas City Royals vs. Cleveland Indians    
Play: Cleveland Indians -134

Corey Kluber has posted outstanding numbers in 2014 and he's allowed 3 runs or less in 13 of his last 14 starts.  He's not only throwing BBs at home, but he owns a sub-2.00 ERA in two starts against the Royals.  KC averages just 3.9 rpg in road day games against righties and I expect another tough day at the plate for the Royals in this one.  Danny Duffy counters for KC and while his overall numbers are solid, he does tend to walk too many batters at times and he can't afford to fall behind when Kluber is the opposing pitcher.  He's also facing an Indians lineup that's on a 20-6 run at home against southpaws.  Toss in Cleveland's 11-3 mark at home when Kluber is laying a price and we have solid situations backing a fantastic hurler.  I'm recommending a play on the Indians on Sunday.

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Red Dog Sports

Tampa Bay vs. Detroit
Play: Under 7½

This is a low total for an American League game but both pitchers have been hot lately as Rick Porcello of the Tigers has allowed no runs in his last three starts. He has been pitching better than recent Cy Young winners Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer. David Price of the Rays has an ERA of 1.54 in his last three and the two have combined for 1 over/5 unders in their last six starts. I think we see a game in the 3-2 range that stays under 7.5.

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Carlo Campanella

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates    
Play: Pittsburgh Pirates -163

Pittsburgh hosts a slumping Phillies crew on Sunday that's lost 10 of their last 13 (3-10 SU) games behind a cold line-up that's scored 3 Runs or less in 9 of those 13 games. That's great news for Pittsburgh's southpaw starting pitcher, Jeff Locke, who's 2-0 with a 1.54 ERA in his career against these Phillies while holding them to only 2 Earned Runs during those 11.7 Innings Pitched during those 2 games and striking out 8 batters. Even worse, these Phillies are only 10-10 and averaging just 3.3 Runs Per Game against left-handed pitchers this season. With the numbers in their favor on Sunday, we'll back a Pittsburgh team that's 34-16 at home against NL teams with a batting average of .250 or lower since last year.

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Rob Vinciletti

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds    
Play: Cincinnati Reds -130 

The Reds were shut down by Milwaukee on Saturday and only had 2 hits. That sets them up in a solid Bounce back system today that plays on home teams with a total that is 8 or less if they are off a 1 run home loss and score 2 or less runs on 2 or less hits and lost by just 1 run. Thee home team are 20-3 straight up. The Brewers are 0-6 in Cincinnati if they are off a win. The Reds have won 9 of 11 as a home favorite in this range and 10 of 13 on Sunday. M. Latos is on the mound for the Reds who have won 10 of his last 13 home starts and his last 3 here vs the Brewers. Y. Gallardo counters for Milwaukee who have lost 9 of his last 13 road starts in July. Gallardo has lost 9 of 12 here in Cincinnati and was roughed up last out, allowing 8 runs in 5 innings at home vs Colorado. Look for the Reds to take the Finale.


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Bruce Marshall

Miami Marlins at St. Louis Cardinals
Pick: Miami Marlins

We'll take our chances with the Marlins and especially starter Henderson Alvarez, who appears too good to pass up at any sort of a plus price these days. That's because Alvarez has allowed two runs or fewer in eight consecutive starts dating back to May 22, going 3-0 with a 1.01 ERA. Only Clayton Kershaw has a lower ERA among qualifying starters in that span at 0.97.The Marlins have also won the last nine starts made by Alvarez. Meanwhile, Cards starter Marco Gonzales has allowed five runs and seven hits in each of his first two starts, covering only 9 1/3 innings.

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Dave Essler

Kansas City Royals +125

I don't agree with the overnight line move, and honestly there's not THAT many bets on the game that gives me pause. The Indians are almost an auto-fade against LHP, as they're just 11-16 on the season against lefties. I do like Duffy quite a bit. He's turning out to be all the people thought he'd be two years ago when he was rushed to the bigs. I also like the fact that the Indians haven't seen him this season, while Kluber has pitched against the Royals twice. We know also that the Royals are a play-on against RHP's. Although the Indians won last night handily, they did all their damage in 4+ innings off of Guthrie, which is exactly what we expected. The Royals actually had 12 hits, so it's not like their bats have gone silent. In fact, they're hitting .280 this week while Cleveland sits at .223. Infante should be back for the Royals, and without boring you guys with more stats, I see Duffy simply out-dueling Kluber here.

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Bryan Leonard

Philadelphia at Pittsburgh
Play: Philadelphia

AJ Burnett returns to Pittsburgh where he made a name for himself earlier in his career. We always like to give a second glance to starters returning to a former site of employment, especially if it was a lengthy one or for some type of revenge. While the later is certainly not the reason in this case, I'm sure Pittsburgh holds a special place in AJ's heart.

Locke has put up some good numbers for the Pirates this year but in our opinion he has outperformed his talent. We were quite surprised to see the veteran Burnett installed as an underdog of this magnitude. Let's take a shot with the Phillies in the battle of Pennsylvania.

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Jesse Schule

NY Yankees vs. Minnesota
Pick: NY Yankees

The Bronx Bombers have taken two of the first three games of this series in Minnesota, with the only loss coming in extra-innings Saturday. They appear to be in good shape here in the series finale Sunday, with veteran Hikoki Kuroda facing off against Ricky Nolasco.

Kuroda (5-6, 4.08 ERA) pitched well in his last start, but didn't get the desired result, allowing a pair of runs over eight innings in a loss to Tampa. He won his last start versus Minnesota, tossing five scoreless innings in a win in the Bronx. This should be a good spot for Kuroda, as he's been tough on hitters in day games, with a record of 8-2, 2.86 ERA in the afternoon the last two seasons.

Nolasco (5-6, 5.49 ERA) allowed just one run on eight hits over six innings in a 10-2 win over Kansas City his last time out. He's been better at home than he has been on the road, but this figures to be a tough spot for the veteran right-hander. Mark Teixeira is 4-for-8 with a home run and a pair of RBIs lifetime versus Nolasco, while Carlos Beltran is hitting .340 with a home run.

Chances are that Kuroda will out-perform his counterpart here this afternoon, and the price is right to back the visitors.

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Bryan Power

LA Dodgers vs. Colorado
Pick: LA Dodgers

The Rockies beat the Dodgers 8-7 on Saturday, but their chances of making it two in a row seem rather slim to me.  First off, they are still just 3-16 their last 19 games w/ yday's starter Jorge De La Rosa having been on the mound for all three victories.  They will also have to face Josh Beckett, who deserves far better than a 7-9 TSR given his 2.46 ERA and 1.024 WHIP.

De La Rosa obviously isn't pitching on B2B days, so today it will be Yohan Flande, who has a 6.10 ERA in two starts.  Then there's the fact that Colorado almost blew the game Saturday as an 8-2 lead quickly turned into a one-run game.  This is a team w/ the worst pitching in all of MLB yet again (5.02 ERA) and so far Flande has allowed 7 ER in just over 10 IP.  On offense, the team had scored just nine runs total its five games previous to yday, including just two in two games vs. Dodgers' pitching.

Josh Beckett still has a 1.90 ERA his L8 starts, so I was left scratching my head after he allowed five runs in 5 IP to a Cleveland lineup that had been shut out in its two previous games w/ only two hits.  That was a season worst performance from Beckett, who earlier this year did allow just 2 ER in 8 IP vs. the Rockies.  Unfortunately, both of those runs allowed came on home runs.  That's odd as he's allowed just 9 HR's in 11 outings since.  LA has won 6 of 8 on the road & is 28-18 for the year away from Chavez Ravine for a decent profit.

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Bob Balfe

San Diego Padres -120

Tim Lincecum has not one, but two no hitters against this Padres team yet today is still the dog. This Giants team just can't hit the ball at all and the Padres pitcher actually has better numbers in his short work this year. Look for a low scoring snoozefest. Take the Padres.

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Chase Diamond

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Oakland A's    
Play: Toronto Blue Jays +150

This game features the 47-42 Jays at the 54-33 Oakland. Oakland is making a run at the World Series getting ace Jeff Samardzija but facts are pitchers normally take a little to adjust to a new team and surroundings and this team is really laying big juice against a very capable Jays team. Drew Hutchison is no push over he is a young gun with a 6-6 3.81 ERA we will take the plus money as the public jumps all over Jeff's first start. 62% are backing the A's here and this line has already dropped 10 cents as Vegas looks to push more on the A's.


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Simon Green

Texas Rangers vs. New York Mets
Play: New York Mets -116

The Mets let us down on Saturday but we are going to back them again today. Even though Texas won the other night they still have only won 3 of their last 13. They won't win two in a row. Take Zack Wheeler and the Mets in this one.

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Jim Feist

Chicago at Washington
Play: Chicago

The Cubs have a very good arm in Jake Arrieta going, a guy who struggled in April but is on a roll at 5-1 with a 1.81 ERA. The team is 5-1 his last six starts. Arrieta held the Red Sox hitless until Stephen Drew singled with two outs in the eighth inning, and the Chicago Cubs beat the Boston Red Sox 2-0 on Monday night in the opener of only the second series between the teams at Fenway Park since 1918. In his previoueus start he lost a perfect game on a leadoff single in the seventh inning against Cincinnati! Arrieta is 4-0 with a 0.94 ERA and 39 strikeouts in his last 4 starts. He's taken a no-hit bid into the 5th inning in 3 of those 4 starts. Washington is no offensive force, 19th in runs scored, 21st in batting average, on base percentage and slugging. Jordan Zimmermann is favored, but Washington is just 4-4 his last nine starts. He's been a better pitcher on the road this season, with a higher ERA at home where opponents are hitting .292 off him. And the last three years the Cubs have had his number, going 1-3 with a 5.40 ERA against Chicago.

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Greg Shaker

Blue Jays / A's Under 7.5

I am playing this one again and for the same reasons I did yesterday. Toronto is not built for this park and in this case they will be batting against a pretty darn good pitcher and one they have never faced. This being a day game in Oakland is my only concern here but not that much of one. Certainly the Jays starter is capable and both Pens are performing. It takes 8 to beat us here and a high percentage chance that number will not be met. I am not going to bore you with a ton of UNDER Trends for this one. Win or lose this is an easy decision.

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Jimmy Boyd

New York Mets -116

The Mets are showing strong value as a small home favorite this afternoon. New York's Zack Wheeler bounced back from an ugly start at home against the A's with his second dominant performance in his last 3 outings. Wheeler allowed just 1 run on 4 hits over 6 1/3 innings of work against the Braves last time out. A couple starts prior, he threw a complete game 3-hit shoutout versus the Mets. I look for Wheeler to add to his recent success with a strong start against the Rangers. Texas is just 3-10 in their last 13 games against a right-handed starter and are just 8-21 in their last 29 games versus a starter who allows o.5 or less home runs/start.

Couple solid systems here both suggesting a play on Wheeler and the Mets. Teams with a starting pitcher whose winning percentage is worse than 30%, starting a pitcher who walked 5 or more hitters last outing are 61-41 (60%) over the last 5 seasons. Adding to that is that home teams with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 to 4.20 on the season (NL), playing on Sunday are 77-34 (69%) over the last 5 seasons.

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