Quaker State 400 Betting News and Notes

Quaker State 400 Betting News and Notes

Kentucky Speedway Data

Season Race #: 16 of 36 (06-28-14)
Track Size: 1.5-miles
Banking/Turn 1 & 2: 14 degrees
Banking/Turn 3 & 4: 14 degrees
Banking/Frontstretch: 8 degrees
Banking/Backstretch: 8 degrees
Frontstretch Length: 1,662 feet
Backstretch Length: 1,600 feet
Race Length: 200 laps / 300 miles

Top 10 Driver Ratings at Kentucky

Jimmie Johnson 125.9
Kyle Busch 125.2
Matt Kenseth 109.3
Brad Keselowski 104.8
Kasey Kahne 98.2
Denny Hamlin 98.1
Carl Edwards 94.5
Jeff Gordon 91.8
Martin Truex Jr 90.7
Kurt Busch 90.6

Note: Driver Ratings compiled from 2005-2013 races (three total) among active drivers at Kentucky Speedway.

Qualifying/Race Data

2013 Coors Light Pole winner:
Dale Earnhardt Jr., Chevrolet
183.636 mph, 29.406 secs. 06-29-13

2013 race winner:
Matt Kenseth, Toyota
131.948 mph, (03:02:07), 06-30-13

Track qualifying record:
Dale Earnhardt Jr., Chevrolet
183.636 mph, 29.406 secs. 06-29-13

Track race record:
Brad Keselowski., Dodge
145.607 mph, (02:45:02), 06-30-12

Blade
useravatar
Offline
213628 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Quaker State 400 Betting News and Notes

Kentucky Driver Tale of the Tape


Kurt Busch (No. 41 Haas Automation Chevrolet)


· Two top 10s
· Average finish of 11.3
· Average Running Position of 13.3, 10th-best
· Driver Rating of 90.6, 10th-best
· 21 Fastest Laps Run, 10th-most
· 202 Green Flag Passes, 12th-most
· Average Green Flag Speed of 170.530 mph, 12th-fastest
· 92 Quality Passes (passes of cars in the top 15 under green), ninth-most

Kyle Busch (No. 18 M&M's Toyota)

· One win, two top fives, three top 10s
· Average finish of 5.3
· Average Running Position of 5.4, second-best
· Driver Rating of 125.2, second-best
· 104 Fastest Laps Run, second-most
· Average Green Flag Speed of 171.765 mph, second-fastest
· 740 Laps in the Top 15 (92.4%), third-most

Carl Edwards (No. 99 UPS Ford)

· One top five, one top 10
· Average finish of 15.3
· Average Running Position of 9.8, fourth-best
· Driver Rating of 94.5, seventh-best
· 20 Fastest Laps Run, 12th-most
· Average Green Flag Speed of 170.987 mph, sixth-fastest
· 643 Laps in the Top 15 (80.3%), fourth-most
· 104 Quality Passes, sixth-most

Jeff Gordon (No. 24 Drive To End Hunger Chevrolet)

· One top five, three top 10s
· Average finish of 7.7
· Average Running Position of 13.2, ninth-best
· Driver Rating of 91.8, eighth-best
· 31 Fastest Laps Run, seventh-most
· 230 Green Flag Passes, third-most
· Average Green Flag Speed of 170.854 mph, seventh-fastest
· 514 Laps in the Top 15 (64.2%), ninth-most
· 119 Quality Passes, second-most

Denny Hamlin (No. 11 FedEx Office Toyota)

· One top five, one top 10
· Average finish of 16.3
· Average Running Position of 12.5, sixth-best
· Driver Rating of 98.1, sixth-best
· 34 Fastest Laps Run, sixth-most
· Average Green Flag Speed of 171.223 mph, fifth-fastest
· 531 Laps in the Top 15 (66.3%), eighth-most

Kevin Harvick (No. 4 Budweiser Chevrolet)

· One top 10
· Average finish of 12.3
· Average Running Position of 12.2, fifth-best
· Driver Rating of 90.5, 11th-best
· 225 Green Flag Passes, fourth-most
· Average Green Flag Speed of 170.830 mph, eighth-fastest
· 628 Laps in the Top 15 (78.4%), fifth-most
· 110 Quality Passes, fourth-most

Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe's Chevrolet)

· One top five, three top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 6.0
· Series-best Average Running Position of 3.9
· Series-best Driver Rating of 125.9
· Series-high 118 Fastest Laps Run
· Series-best Average Green Flag Speed of 172.196 mph
· Series-high 783 Laps in the Top 15 (97.8%)
· 108 Quality Passes, fifth-most

Kasey Kahne (No. 5 Great Clips Chevrolet)

· One top five, one top 10
· Average finish of 8.7
· Average Running Position of 14.0, 12th-best
· Driver Rating of 98.2, fifth-best
· 52 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-most
· Series-high 313 Green Flag Passes
· Average Green Flag Speed of 171.289 mph, fourth-fastest
· 472 Laps in the Top 15 (58.9%), 11th-most
· 116 Quality Passes, third-most

Matt Kenseth (No. 20 Dollar General Toyota)

· One win, one top five, three top 10s
· Average finish of 4.7
· Average Running Position of 8.3, third-best
· Driver Rating of 109.3, third-best
· 67 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-most
· Average Green Flag Speed of 171.542 mph, third-fastest
· 775 Laps in the Top 15 (96.8%), second-most
· Series-high 157 Quality Passes

Brad Keselowski (No. 2 Miller Lite Ford)

· One win, one top five, two top 10s
· Average finish of 13.7
· Average Running Position of 13.2, eighth-best
· Driver Rating of 104.8, fourth-best
· 72 Fastest Laps Run, third-most
· 573 Laps in the Top 15 (71.5%), sixth-most

Joey Logano (No. 22 Shell Pennzoil Ford)

· One top five, one top 10
· Average finish of 13.3
· Driver Rating of 87.2, 12th-best
· 202 Green Flag Passes, 12th-most
· 92 Quality Passes, ninth-most

Martin Truex Jr. (No. 78 Furniture Row Chevrolet)

· Two top 10s
· Average finish of 11.0
· Average Running Position of 12.6, seventh-best
· Driver Rating of 90.7, ninth-best
· 203 Green Flag Passes, 11th-most
· Average Green Flag Speed of 170.746 mph, ninth-fastest
· 555 Laps in the Top 15 (69.3%), seventh-most
· 101 Quality Passes, eighth-most

Blade
useravatar
Offline
213628 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Quaker State 400 Betting News and Notes

Quaker State 400 Preview
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

Saturday Night’s Sprint Cup race takes us to Kentucky Speedway for the fifth race this season on a 1.5-mile track. This will be the fourth race run on the mildly banked (14 degrees) speedway whose past winners have been Kyle Busch (2011), Brad Keselowski (2012) and Matt Kenseth (2013). Kenseth has the best average finish (4.7) among all drivers, and dominated on 1.5-mile tracks last season, but his only Top-5 finish on them this season was third at Charlotte last month.

Are Kenseth and the Joe Gibbs drivers getting better, or does it even matter because of how far ahead of the game the Hendrick Chevy engines appear to be in regards to horsepower. Gibbs has won two of the three Kentucky races, but they never had a horsepower deficit in those years like is the case now.     
   
Penske Racing’s Joey Logano and Brad Keselowski won on the first two 1.5 tracks this season at Las Vegas and Texas, and then Hendrick Motorsports' Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Johnson took the last two at Kansas and Charlotte. Kevin Harvick, who drives for Stewart-Haas but uses a Hendrick engine, has finished second in the last two at Kansas and Charlotte.

Those are going to be the drivers you want to key on this week, and you can throw another Hendrick driver, Dale Earnhardt Jr. into the mix as well. And you know sooner or later Kasey Kahne, who finished second at Kentucky in 2012, is going to put all his Hendrick power to good use with a win eventually.

Much like last season, we have a clear view who the best cars are on these type of tracks. Kenseth had already won at Las Vegas and Kansas last season before winning at Kentucky. Kevin Harvick won at Charlotte and would also take the checkers later in the season in the fall Kansas race. Kyle Busch had won at Texas and later won at Atlanta's 1.5-mile layout.

You get the idea.

Chances are we've already seen Saturday night's winner between the first four races on the 1.5-mile tracks, and the most likeliest of candidates appear to be Jimmie Johnson, who has won three of the past five races overall on the season. Kentucky is one of four tracks he's never won on, but in three starts he's never finished outside the top-10, with an average finish of 6.0 which is third best behind Kyle Busch (5.3) and Kenseth.

We saw Johnson cross Michigan off his 'things to do list' a few weeks ago at a track that had eluded him longer than any other. With someone that has accomplished just about everything possible in NASCAR, winning at every track is one of those goals he has to place before himself to keep him pumped up and motivated. Sure, it's probably not too hard to jump into a car every week when you know you have the best stuff, but to keep things fresh, you play the game within the game.

For Johnson, only four tracks remained to be crossed off and it's likely only three will remain after Saturday's night race.
       
Top-5 Finish Prediction:

1) #48 Jimmie Johnson (5/1)
2) #4 Kevin Harvick (6/1)
3) #2 Brad Keselowski (8/1)
4) #22 Joey Logano (8/1)
5) #24 Jeff Gordon (8/1)   

Emotional Gaughan earns Nationwide win

I rarely talk about the Nationwide series, but there’s a special circumstance this week because of having just experienced my most exciting race of the NASCAR season, and the funny thing was, I didn’t even have a wager on it.

The reason for the excitement was because Brendan Gaughan, from Las Vegas, won his first Nationwide series race and ninth overall within the three major NASCAR series he’s driven in over his 18 year career. After getting himself in all kinds of trouble throughout Saturday’s race at Road America’s 4.04-mile road course in Wisconsin, Gaughan managed to run his No. 62 South Point Camaro fastest in the rain (Nationwide runs road course races in the rain), and between great pit strategy and skilled driving, he was able to drive himself to victory.

I was happy not only as a Las Vegan, but also because I know what an emotional year it’s been for the Gaughan family after Brendan’s grandfather, Las Vegas pioneer Jackie Gaughan, passed away in March. When leading with four laps to go, all I could think about was how much a win would mean not only for Brendan, but also for the entire Gaughan family.

It’s a rough stretch for a while when someone in the family passes on. I was in a daze for a year when my mother passed, but then there’s a point where you get some kind of sign that things are going to be okay. When Brendan won, it was easy to see through his emotions how he was feeling. While doing his victory interview on television, he walked over to his car and pointed to the spot above the door where his name is supposed to be and it had the name John “Jackie” Gaughan written instead.

It was a great moment that had several layers of goodness to it. The LVH SuperBook books Nationwide races all season and opened Gaughan at 40/1 odds to win at closed him at 25/1, but didn’t have many takers.

It was Gaughan’s first NASCAR win since a Truck series win at Texas in 2003, a race I remember all too well because my sportsbook got hammered on him at 10/1 odds, which in retrospect was obviously a bad price.

Blade
useravatar
Offline
213628 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Quaker State 400 Betting News and Notes

Chassis Selections
Jayski.com

#1-Jamie McMurray: chassis not reported on race preview.
#2-Brad Keselowski: Primary Chassis: PRS-904. Last Raced: Darlington (finished 17th). Backup Chassis: PRS-840. Last Raced: Pocono backup (not raced)
#3-Austin Dillon: will pilot Chassis No. 465 in the Quaker State 400 presented by Advance Auto Parts at Kentucky Speedway. This is the same Chevrolet SS that Dillon raced to a 16th-place finish at Charlotte Motor Speedway in May and a 21st-place finish at Texas Motor Speedway in April.
#5-Kasey Kahne: Crew chief Kenny Francis has selected Hendrick Motorsports Chassis No. 5-820 for Saturday night's race at Kentucky. Kahne raced this car twice last year, finishing 15th at Kansas Speedway in October and then 13th at Homestead-Miami Speedway in November. He also drove this chassis at the Fontana oval in March and at Charlotte Motor Speedway's All-Star Race in May.
#7-Michael Annett: chassis not reported on race preview.
#9-Marcos Ambrose: chassis not reported on race preview.
#10-Danica Patrick: Chassis No. 10-794 was tested in the wind tunnel May 1, 2013, before being used by Patrick in the Coca-Cola 600 later that month at Charlotte (N.C.) Motor Speedway. Patrick started 24th and finished 29th after being involved in a multicar accident on lap 320 of 400. After repairs, she managed to finish the race but completed only 385 laps. The next time Patrick drove this car was in June at Kentucky Speedway in Sparta, where she started 29th and finished 23rd. The last time she drove it was in September at Atlanta Motor Speedway, where she started 21st and finished 21st. It was used as a backup car in fall 2013 at Kansas Speedway in Kansas City, Charlotte and Texas Motor Speedway in Fort Worth. It was then used in 2014 at Bristol (Tenn.) Motor Speedway, but she wrecked the car early in the first practice and went to a backup. Since then, it has been a backup at Texas, Darlington (S.C.) Raceway, Dover (Del.) International Speedway, Pocono (Pa.) Raceway and Michigan International Speedway in Brooklyn.
#15-Clint Bowyer: Chassis No. 800 serves as the primary chassis for Bowyer at Kentucky Speedway. He raced it to a fourth-place finish at Dover earlier this month. Chassis No. 804 serves as the back-up chassis and finished 12th at Darlington and 15th at Bristol.
#16-Greg Biffle: Primary Chassis: RK-890 Last ran All-Star - finished 19th. Backup Chassis: RK-879 Last ran Las Vegas - finished 22nd.
#17-Ricky Stenhouse Jr.: Chassis RK-893 is the same chassis that Stenhouse raced into the top-five in the first 20 lap segment of the Sprint Showdown. Stenhouse was forced to settle with a seventh-place finish after battling a tight Building for America's Bravest Ford in the final 20-lap shootout. Backup Chassis: RK- 888 - last raced at Bristol - finished second.
#20-Matt Kenseth: chassis not reported on race preview.
#22-Joey Logano: Primary Chassis: PRS-903. Last Raced: Darlington (finished 35th). Backup Chassis: PRS-844. Last Raced: Pocono backup (not raced).
#24-Jeff Gordon: #24 crew chief Alan Gustafson has selected Hendrick Motorsports Chassis No. 24-869 for this Saturday night's race. Gordon has raced this chassis twice to a first-place finish at Kansas in May and eighth-place result at Pocono in June.
#27-Paul Menard: will race chassis No. 454. This Chevrolet SS produced one top-five and three top-10 finishes in 2014; Las Vegas Motor Speedway (third-place finish) Texas Motor Speedway (ninth-place finish) and Charlotte Motor Speedway (eighth-place finish).
#31-Ryan Newman: will drive chassis No. 441 on Saturday night at Kentucky Speedway. Chassis No. 441 has competed in three Sprint Cup Series events so far in 2014 producing two top-10 finishes (Phoenix International Raceway - seventh and Darlington Raceway - 10th). Newman also utilized the chassis in Dover where he ran in the top 10 before a mechanical issue ended the solid effort.
#34-David Regan: chassis not reported on race preview.
#38-David Gilliland: chassis not reported on race preview.
#41-Kurt Busch: Chassis No. 727: Busch will pilot Chassis No. 727 in Saturday night's Kentucky 400 at Kentucky Speedway in Sparta. In six previous starts, four as the No. 39 for Stewart-Haas Racing (SHR), and most recently at the Sprint All-Star Race at Charlotte (N.C.) Motor Speedway as the No. 41, it has two top-10s with a best finish of eighth in the Bank of America 500 at Charlotte. Chassis No. 727 finished 13th as the SHR No. 39 at the 2013 Sprint All-Star Race at Charlotte, 21st at Bristol in August, eighth at Charlotte in October and ninth at Texas Motor Speedway in Fort Worth in November. Since transitioning to the No. 41 team, Chassis 727 finished 13th at Bristol in March and 18th in the Sprint All-Star Race at Charlotte. Saturday night marks its third start for the No. 41 team.
#42-Kyle Larson: chassis not reported on race preview.
#43-Aric Almirola: chassis not reported on race preview.
#47-A.J. Allmendinger: chassis not reported on race preview.
#48-Jimmie Johnson: Chad Knaus has selected Hendrick Motorsports Chassis No. 48-799, which Johnson drove at Kansas Speedway and the Fontana oval earlier this season. The backup car is Chassis No. 48-728, which was most recently raced at Bristol Motor Speedway in March.
#51-Justin Allgaier: chassis not reported on race preview.
#55-Brian Vickers: Primary: 797 finished sixth at Charlotte and seventh at California. Backup: 801 finished 13th at Las Vegas.
#78-Martin Truex Jr.: chassis not reported on race preview.
#88-Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Crew chief Steve Letarte will unload Hendrick Motorsports Chassis No. 88-877 for this weekend's Cup event at Kentucky. Earnhardt most recently raced this chassis to a fifth-place finish at Kansas Speedway in May.

Blade
useravatar
Offline
213628 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Quaker State 400 Betting News and Notes

Driver Handicaps: Kentucky
By: Jeff Wackerlin
Racingone.com

MRN.com's detailed notes and statistics to help you set your fantasy racing lineup for Saturday night's Quaker State 400 Presented by Advance Auto Parts at Kentucky Speedway.

Who's HOT at Kentucky (3 Races)

• Defending race winner Matt Kenseth leads all drivers with a 4.7 average finish.
• Kyle Busch, winner of the 2011 race, leads all drivers in laps led with 243.
• Along with Kenseth and Busch, Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon are the only drivers to finish in the top 10 in the three races.
• Brad Keselowski has posted two top 10s, including a win in 2012.

Who to Keep an Eye On at Kentucky

• Kevin Harvick has two runner-up finishes and has combined to lead 219 laps at the last two 1.5-mile tracks this season.
• Joey Logano has one win and an average finish of 5.2 in the four races at 1.5-mile tracks this season.
• Carl Edwards (7.2), Kasey Kahne (9.0), Paul Menard (9.2) and Brian Vickers (9.2) each rank in the top 10 in average finish among all drivers at 1.5-mile tracks this season.
• Martin Truex Jr. (7.5), Dale Earnhardt Jr. (8.0), Jamie McMurray (8.5) and Clint Bowyer (9.5) are among the top 10 in average finish at Kentucky in the two races with the current tire combination. McMurray, Keselowski and Vickers participated in the Goodyear tire test last month.

Tire Notes: Sprint Cup teams will be running the same combination of left- and right-side tires that they've run at Kentucky since 2012.  Kenseth (4.0), Kahne (6.5), Gordon (6.5), Johnson (7.5), Truex (7.5) and Busch (7.5) are tops in average finish in that span.  McMurray, Keselowski and Vickers participated in the Goodyear tire test at Kentucky last month.

MRN.com Staff Picks

Jeff Wackerlin: Jimmie Johnson
Pete Pistone: Jeff Gordon
Dustin Long: Kyle Busch
John Singler: Paul Menard

Top 20 Driver Notes - Ordered by Current Standings

Jeff Gordon:
Has finished in the top 10 in all three Kentucky starts.  Gordon has one win and leads all drivers with a 4.8 average finish in the four races at 1.5-mile tracks this season.  This weekend, Gordon will return in the same car (chassis No. 869) that he won with at Kansas Speedway.

Jimmie Johnson: Has finished in the top 10 in all three Kentucky races and led a race-high 182 laps last year.  Johnson has one win, 222 laps led and an average finish of 10.2 in the four races at 1.5-mile tracks this season.  This weekend, Johnson will return in the same car (chassis No. 799) that he last finished ninth with at Kansas Speedway.

Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Won the pole and finished 12th last season to give him an average finish of 15.3 in the three Kentucky races.  Earnhardt does have two top fives this season at 1.5-mile tracks, including a runner-up finish at Las Vegas.  This weekend, Earnhardt will return in the same car (chassis No. 877) that he finished fifth with at Kansas Speedway.

Matt Kenseth: Is the defending race winner and leads all drivers with a 4.7 average finish in the three races at Kentucky.  Kenseth, who is still searching for his first win of the year, is fourth among all drivers in average finish (7.5) in the four races at 1.5-mile tracks this season.

Brad Keselowski: Finished 33rd last season to snap a streak of two consecutive top 10s at Kentucky that included a win in 2012.  Keselowski has one win, led 194 laps and has posted an average finish of 9.8 in the four races at 1.5-mile tracks this season.  Keselowski participated in the Goodyear tire test last month and will return in the same car that he finished 17th with at Darlington Raceway.

Carl Edwards: Last week's winner at Sonoma will look to use his momentum on 1.5-mile tracks this season to post his first top 10 at Kentucky since finishing fifth in 2011.  Edwards is third among all drivers in average finish (7.2) in the four races at 1.5-mile tracks in 2014.

Joey Logano: Finished fourth in first Kentucky attempt with Team Penske, his first top 10 in three starts.  Logano has one win and is second among all drivers in average finish (5.2) in the four races at 1.5-mile tracks this season.  This weekend, Logano will return in the same car (chassis No. 903) he finished 35th with at Darlington Raceway.

Ryan Newman: Only top 10 at Kentucky came in the first race in 2011.  Newman will make his first track start with Richard Childress Racing in the same car (chassis No. 441) that he finished in the top 10 with at Phoenix International Raceway and Darlington Raceway.

Kevin Harvick: Coming off first top 10 at Kentucky.  Harvick has two runner-up finishes and has combined to lead 219 laps at the last two 1.5-mile tracks this season.  Harvick will make first track start with Stewart-Haas Racing driving the same car (chassis No. 850) that he finished second with in the Sprint All-Star Race at Charlotte Motor Speedway.

Kyle Larson: Making first Sprint Cup start at Kentucky.  Larson, who has one top 10 in the Nationwide Series at Kentucky, has posted a 13.5 average finish and one top five in the four races at 1.5-mile tracks this season.

Kyle Busch: Has finished in the top 10 in all three Kentucky starts including a win in the inaugural event.  Busch has led 63 laps and posted an average finish of 9.5 in the four races at 1.5-mile tracks this season.

Paul Menard: Has yet to post a top 10 at Kentucky but is coming off his third top 10 at a 1.5-mile track this season.  Menard's 2014 average finish (9.2) on the intermediate ovals is tied for sixth among all drivers.  This weekend, Menard will return in the same car (chassis No. 454) that he last finished eighth with at Charlotte Motor Speedway.

Denny Hamlin: His average finish at Kentucky dropped to 16.3 last season after a crash took him out of the race.  Hamlin, who finished third at Kentucky in 2012, still has yet to post a top 10 at a 1.5-mile track this season.

Clint Bowyer: Coming off first top 10 at Kentucky, a third-place finish.  Bowyer's only top 10 at a 1.5-mile track this season came in Texas, eighth place.  This weekend, Bowyer will return in the same car (chassis No. 800) that he finished fourth with at Dover International Speedway.

Greg Biffle: Has yet to finish inside the top 20 at Kentucky and has an average finish of 25.3.  Biffle's only top 10 at a 1.5-mile track this season came at Texas Motor Speedway, where he finished sixth.  This weekend, Biffle will return in the same car (chassis No. 890) that he finished 19th with in the All-Star Race at Charlotte.

Kasey Kahne: Fifth among all drivers in average finish both at Kentucky (8.7) and in the four races at 1.5-mile tracks this season (9.0).  This weekend, Kahne will return in the same car (chassis No. 820) that he last drove in the All-Star Race at Charlotte.

Tony Stewart: Has yet to finish in the top 10 at Kentucky.  Stewart does have one top 10 this season at 1.5-mile tracks, finishing 10th at Texas.  This weekend, "Smoke" will return in the same car (chassis No. 735) that he last finished 20th with at Kansas Speedway.

Austin Dillon: Finished 24th last season at Kentucky driving for Phoenix Racing.  Dillon, who has yet to finish in the top 10 at a 1.5-mile track this season, will return in the same car (chassis No. 465) that he last finished 16th with at Charlotte Motor Speedway.

Jamie McMurray: Coming off first top 10 at Kentucky, a second-place finish to Matt Kenseth.  McMurray, who participated in the Goodyear tire test last month, is also coming off his first top 10 at a 1.5-mile track this season, finishing fifth at Charlotte.

Brian Vickers: Finished 31st last season in first Kentucky start with Michael Waltrip Racing.  Vickers participated in the Goodyear tire test last month and is coming off his second top 10 at a 1.5-mile track this season with a sixth-place finish in Charlotte.  This weekend, Vickers will return in the same car (chassis No. 797) that he last raced at Charlotte.

Blade
useravatar
Offline
213628 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Quaker State 400 Betting News and Notes

Kentucky entertains NASCAR Saturday night
By: Brian Graham
StatFox.com

After tackling the Sonoma road course last week, the NASCAR circuit moves to the more traditional “cookie cutter” track at Kentucky on Saturday night for the Quaker State 400 Presented by Advance Auto Parts. The Kentucky Speedway opened in 2000 in a 1.5-mile tri-oval shape. All the turns have an identical banking of 14°, making it one of the flattest of the six other similar tracks (Atlanta, Charlotte, Texas, Las Vegas, Kansas and Chicagoland). The frontstretch, which measures 1,662 feet is banked at just 18° while the backstretch measures a similar 1,600 feet, but with only half the banking (4°) of the frontstretch. There have been only three all-time NASCAR races at Kentucky Speedway. Kyle Busch took the checkered flag in the first race in 2011, and Brad Keselowski won at Kentucky in 2012, and Matt Kenseth conquered the field last year.

Drivers to Watch

Kyle Busch (12/1) -
This is a driver who consistently receives unfavorable odds, but for Saturday night, Busch's Kentucky odds drop to 12-to-1, which is exactly double his 6-to-1 price last year. He has dominated this venue with top-10 showings in all three of its NASCAR races, winning the inaugural pole and race in 2011 before coming in 10th place in 2012 (in a race he led for 118 laps) and placing fifth in 2013. Busch has really dropped since he suffered a crash in Dover with an average finish of 30.0 over his past four starts, but he has raced well at similar venues, such as a 3rd-place showing at Fort Worth before coming in 9th place in Charlotte. Expect Busch to find his Kentucky magic and get back into the top-10 in the Chase Cup Standings after a win.

Brad Keselowski (8/1) - Last year's winner at Kentucky also finished 7th at this track in 2011, as he led for a total of 147 laps in those two races. Keselowski has always been an intermediate track monster, and this year is no different, winning at Las Vegas, starting 3rd at Kansas and 2nd at both Fort Worth and Charlotte. He's also raced consistently well enough all season to remain among the top-5 drivers in the standings after all 16 starts, banging out seven top-5's and an average finish of 13.2. At 8-to-1, the Keselowski is not a bargain, but he's the lone single-digit-odds driver that stands out.

Kasey Kahne (12/1) - Kahne has more favorable odds than the 8-to-1 price he went off at last year. Not only was he the 2012 runner-up at Kentucky, but he has always thrived on 1.5-mile tracks. In the past four such races this season (Charlotte, Kansas, Fort Worth and Las Vegas), he's either started or finished 11th or better. After crashing in Pocono three weeks ago, Kahne looked strong at Michigan (5th) and also at Sonoma last week with a 6th-place finish. This marked his sixth top-8 showing this season. With double-digit odds, Kahne provides some excellent value for Saturday night.

Tony Stewart (20/1) - Stewart is in the midst of tough stretch of races, placing 10th or worse in seven of his past eight starts. Three years ago at this Kentucky race, Stewart was getting 8-to-1 odds, so this looks like an undervalued driver on Saturday. Stewart has also been decent on intermediate tracks, including winning the pole during an 10th-place showing at Fort Worth. At this time of year when "Smoke" usually goes on a flag-checkering run, consider him the best darkhorse on the board and thus worthy of a small wager.

Martin Truex Jr. (60/1) - The longshot pick of the week is Truex, whose odds at this track have quadrupled in the past year from 15-to-1 to 60-to-1. But each time at Kentucky, his result has improved from the previous race, as he finished 18th in 2011, 8th in 2012 and 7th last year. Although he's still looking for his first top-5 of the year, this past history makes him worthy of a one-unit play on Saturday night.

Blade
useravatar
Offline
213628 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Quaker State 400 Betting News and Notes

Quaker State 400 Post-Practice Betting Notes
By: Micah Roberts   
Sportingnews.com

LAS VEGAS – Brad Keselowski was the only driver to top 183 mph in Friday’s final practice session at Kentucky Speedway in preparation for Saturday night’s Quaker State 400, showing that his Penske Racing-powered Ford might have something for all the fast Hendrick engines that were feared the most coming into the week.

Three drivers from Hendrick Motorsports have won five of the past six races, including the past two races on 1.5-mile tracks. Stewart-Haas Racing driver Kevin Harvick, who uses a Hendrick engine, finished second behind them at both Kansas and Charlotte.

Of the four races run on 1.5-mile tracks so far this season, Kansas would probably be considered the most similar layout to Kentucky, but it’s unique to itself, as SHR driver Kurt Busch explains:

"The track has a unique set of bumps that makes it different from a lot of the typical 1.5-mile tracks that we see," Busch said earlier this week. "It’s kind of a one-off race with its own setup issues. You can overthink Kentucky a little bit because there’s nothing similar to it.”

While there has been little doubt about the horsepower edge the Hendrick engines have over all the teams, a unique track like Kentucky can be somewhat of an equalizer because of the setup and balance of the car. That helped Keselowski maintain an edge at Las Vegas when he won in March, followed by teammate Joey Logano at Texas in April -- the first two 1.5-mile tracks run on this season.

Can the Penske cars compare with Hendrick horsepower? Probably not, but they appear to have a few tricks up their sleeve in the setup for the 14 degrees of banking that may allow them to roll in and out of the turns the quickest.

Keselowski was not only fastest while in qualifying trim, but he was also outstanding in race trim during the first two practice sessions. In the morning session, he had the second fastest lap behind Kyle Larson (another Hendrick engine) and the fastest 10-consecutive lap average. The “Blue Deuce’ looks like the car to beat Saturday night, which would be his second win (2012) in four races at Kentucky.

For whatever reason, a Kentucky win has eluded Chevy in the three previous races, and it’s also the lone track on the schedule where Hendrick driver Jeff Gordon has never won. Gordon was solid in practices, finishing fourth in the final session, but what really makes him stand out this week is how well he’s done on 1.5-mile tracks this season. He’s finished ninth or better on all four, which includes a win at Kansas. He’s using that same chassis this week.

Jimmie Johnson was sluggish in both practices, and Kentucky is one of four tracks where he’s never won, but you can never discount the six-time champ. He still owns a sixth-place average, which is third best at Kentucky behind Kyle Busch (5.3) and Matt Kenseth (4.7).

The driver that really stands out is rookie Kyle Larson, who had the fastest lap in the first practice session and was third during ‘happy hour‘. He’s had three top-five finishes this season and is knocking on the door loudly for his first career win. If it weren’t because of his inexperience, Larson would be rated much higher, possibly right behind Keselowski and Harvick as the drivers to beat. He’s the best of the longshot odds, along with teammate Jamie McMurray, who won the All-Star and finished fifth in the Coca-Cola 600 on the last 1.5-mile race at Charlotte.

Joe Gibbs Racing drivers have won two of the three Kentucky races, and while they haven't been as good as last season on 1.5-mile tracks (they won seven of 11 in 2013), all three of them were among the top-10 fastest during 'happy hour'. Kenseth, last year's winner, had the second fastest lap in the final 80-minute session, giving an indication that the JGR cars may have found something and are on the upswing. Kenseth had his only top-five finish on 1.5-mile tracks in the last one at Charlotte.

Look for the Penske duo of Keselowski and Logano, who both start from the front row, to give the Hendrick engines all they can handle Sunday night even though Chevy has them in numbers. In the first 90-minute practice session, 13 of the top-18 speeds all came from Chevy, including SHR driver Danica Patrick, who was eighth fastest.

If Kansas correlates just a little with Kentucky, that’s good news for Patrick because she had her best career finish (seventh-place) there in May and is using the same chassis this week.

Blade
useravatar
Offline
213628 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Board Info

Board Stats:
 
Total Topics:
44822
Total Polls:
2
Total Posts:
280731
Average Posts Per Hour:
4.9
User Info:
 
Total Users:
3560
Newest User:
Derek
Members Online:
1
Guests Online:
2127

Online: 
Pana Dragos

Forum Legend:

 Topic
 New
 Locked
 Sticky
 Active
 New/Locked
 Sticky/Locked

Privacy Policy | Terms of Service | Contact Us | Advertising | 888-99-SPREAD

THIS IS NOT A GAMBLING SITE – If you think you have a gambling problem click here.

Disclaimer: This site is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Individual users are responsible for the laws regarding accessing gambling information from their jurisdictions. Many countries around the world prohibit gambling, please check the laws in your location. Any use of this information that may violate any federal, state, local or international law is strictly prohibited.

Copyright: The information contained on TheSpread.com website is protected by international copyright and may not be reproduced, or redistributed in any way without expressed written consent.

About: TheSpread.com is the largest sports betting news site in the United States. We provide point spread news, odds, statistics and information to over 199 countries around the world each year. Our coverage includes all North American College and Professional Sports as well as entertainment, political and proposition wagering news.

©1999-2013 TheSpread.com